World Development Report 1984

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and training, data collection and analysis, special extremely important for effective use of population projects, and biomedical and operations research. assistance. Family Planning International Assistance, a branch One sign of the success of international assisof The Planned Parenthood Federation of America, tance is that many local governments now help the American affiliate of IPPF, provides population pay for programs that only a few years ago were assistance in more than forty countries. The Popu- supported by international grants. Colombia, lation Council, with a budget of $16 million from Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand are picking up a both public and private sources, provides technical progressively larger share of the costs of their popassistance and supports social science and contra- ulation programs. India has for many years paid ceptive research. The Pathfinder Fund is an exam- for a large share of its program, and China has ple of smaller nongovernmental organizations. always completely financed its own program. This Pathfinder manages about $7 million in public and trend toward self-financing makes it possible to private funds, which are spent on innovative fam- reallocate aid budgets to countries that are only ily planning services, women's programs, and starting to develop their population programs. For population policy development. These small pro- example, the share of the UNFPA's budget going grams, and similar programs in other countries, to Africa rose from about 12 percent during the add to the flexibility and responsiveness of popula- 1970s to 23 percent in 1983. tion assistance. Asia continues to receive the bulk of population The World Bank supports population activities assistance (51 percent of the total), followed by through IDA credits and loans to borrowers. Over Latin America (20 percent), Africa (15 percent), a period of fourteen years, the Bank has committed and the Middle East (14 percent). Given the $355 million for population projects, and had dis- emerging pattern of needs described in Chapter 7, bursed $215 million by the end of 1983 (including a substantial increase in assistance is needed, espe- $38.4 million in fiscal year 1983 itself). World Bank cially for Africa and South Asia. To meet unmet finance is not available on terms as easy as most need in all regions in 1980 would have required population assistance, much of which is given in spending $3 billion rather than the $2 billion that the form of grants; nonetheless, Bank operations was actually spent (see Chapter 7, Table 7.6). By grew in real terms by more than 5 percent a year the same yardstick, spending for population probetween 1977 and 1983. Over the past three years grams in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia the largest disbursements have gone to Bangla- should have been more than double what it was. desh, Egypt, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Since Africa and South Asia are the poorest and Thailand, which together accounted for more regions and most in need of external assistance, than 90 percent of Bank lending for population. the bulk of the extra program support would have The World Bank also supports an active program had to have come from international aid. of economic and sector work aimed at enhancing The analysis in Chapter 7 led to two estimates of understanding of how population growth affects required public spending for population programs development prospects and how population pro- by the year 2000. If developing countries are to grams can contribute to overall development. The achieve a "rapid" decline in fertility, $7.6 billion Bank cooperates with other UN organizations, (in 1980 dollars), almost a quadrupling of 1980 especially UNFPA and the World Health Organiza- spending, would be needed. The "standard" tion, in research and analysis requested by mem- decline would require $5.6 billion. With two-thirds ber governments. of external population assistance going to support The predominance of foreign assistance within family planning, foreign aid now supports about the population sector in many countries means 25 percent of all family planning costs in developthat the attitudes and priorities of donors become ing countries. Assuming these proportions do not' significant. At the same time, the great number of change, population assistance will need to triple donors-private, official, bilateral, and multila- (standard decline) or quadruple (rapid decline) its teral-means that their priorities may not always current level. A quadrupling would raise populacoincide. They may send conflicting signals to tion assistance to an annual level of $2 billion (1980 host governments, fueling internal controversies. dollars) by the year 2000. With no other changes in Further, their numerous activities may not be official development assistance, total aid for all complementary or represent the most efficient assistance programs would increase by 5 percent, allocation of resources. Coordination among by no means an unmanageable addition to aid donors and with the host government is therefore budgets. With the expected growth of industrial 180
countries as outlined in Chapters 2 and 3, and aid from donors can, given effective policies in recipias a constant share of their GNP, expanded popu- ent countries, make a big difference in population lation assistance would by the year 2000 need to change. Sustained progress, however, requires not equal 3.3 percent (to achieve standard fertility just donor funds; it also requires a commitment by decline) or 4.3 percent (to achieve rapid fertility the international community to population prodecline) of total concessional assistance. grams as a critical part of the effort to improve Thus, small differences in financial assistance people's lives. 181
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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nize contraceptive services. As wil
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147: 132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149: TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151: TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153: may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155: family planning and maternal and ch
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Page 158 and 159: Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
Page 160 and 161: medical examination was not always
Page 162 and 163: measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165: Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
Page 166 and 167: costs per user. Public cost per use
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Page 170 and 171: TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173: Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
Page 174 and 175: FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
Page 176 and 177: improving the availability of famil
Page 178 and 179: Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
Page 180 and 181: Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
Page 182 and 183: FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
Page 184 and 185: growth. Fertility has declined in t
Page 186 and 187: Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
Page 188 and 189: FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
Page 190 and 191: able several types of condoms, pill
Page 192 and 193: housing schemes to parents with onl
Page 196 and 197: 9 Ten years of experience Much that
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Page 200 and 201: Population data supplement The six
Page 202 and 203: Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205: 190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207: Table 1. Population projections Rat
Page 208 and 209: Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211: Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
Page 212 and 213: Table 5. Status of women Number enr
Page 214 and 215: Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 216 and 217: Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 218 and 219: Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221: -1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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Page 224 and 225: Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227: Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229: same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231: Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233: Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235: Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237: Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239: Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241: Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243: Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Table 11. Structure of merchandise
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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