World Development Report 1984

FIGURE 8.7
Fertility in relation to income: selected developing countries in East Asia, 1972 and 1982
Total fertility rate
8
7
6 Philippines
5
4
3
2
Indonesia
N for 92 developing countries, 1972
* 1972
* 1982
l
Thail\nd
Thailand \
Malaysia
\ \ Norm for ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~98
developing countries, 1982
China
l i ~~~~~Korea
0 $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 $6000
Income per capita (1980 dollars)
increase by almost half, to 1.45 billion by 2050. half the level on Java and Bali-in some places
Replacement-level fertility is still a long way off for much less. There are also marked regional dispari-
Burma, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thai- ties in access to services in the Philippines.
land and Viet Nam, with total fertility rates of at In addition, some countries have overlooked
least 3.6; total fertility in Korea, at 2.7, is also still potentially important methods. The Indonesian
above replacement level. program, for example, does not offer sterilization.
Though contraceptive use is higher in East Asia Yet this method has been very popular in South
than in most other developing regions, there is still Asia, Korea, Thailand, and some Latin American
considerable unmet need for contraception. Low countries. Injectable contraceptives have been
and high estimates of unmet need are 19 to 49 much favored in Thailand but are only recently
percent of married women of childbearing age in gaining ground in Indonesia. The Korean program
the Philippines (1978), 20 to 31 percent in Indone- has emphasized sterilization; wider promotion of
sia (1976), 15 to 26 percent in Thailand (1981), and spacing methods might also lower fertility. The
as much as 30 percent in Korea (1979). Actual fam- potential demand for spacing methods is demonily
size exceeds desired family size by one child in strated by the high resort to abortion in Korea. In
the Philippines. More than half of eligible couples the Philippines, improving the effectiveness of trawho
want no more children are not using any ditional methods and promoting more effective
method of birth control. And among the 36 percent alternatives could have a substantial effect.
of Filipino couples using a method, more than half Given the relatively advanced state of populaare
using less effective methods such as with- tion policies, more use could be made of incentives
drawal and rhythm. In some countries family plan- and disincentives. Among the countries of East
ning programs have not achieved complete geo- Asia, China, Singapore, and to a lesser extent
graphic coverage. In Indonesia, for example, Korea, have made greatest use of measures to procontraceptive
use in the outer islands, where one- mote small families. Sometimes they have relied
third of the country's population lives, is less than on individual incentives (such as giving priority in
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