World Development Report 1984

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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of population growth: compounding and momentum Ra,tc, oi porpulatiorn grrr.'th among .:oirn- tirtrilir, bL-ri,- Ern1. and eight birth- ard -i.rid iT aK c,luritr-,p.:i:'-. t. -r trie- lend to tall ink-ic. m%--rain g,ro,up- pci "om an,ut ha- rh, mocrrnentUrn- 'nga niwn~!3 i,r,-r- p. r.arrd i n*i Ir- rapid gr-rnlIh *,_uur-nriu oI Airwa A;ia c:reated h. the-. hig;h tErTlit1 3nd tailing nut-, n: n'r.rane**-Li- jI. tal' 0 r-p I ,-:Mcr.r and Latin Anmerica -'ith annual ..ro.' ih irralifir c-i rh, pa;r thrr; dt-Cadm% F-i>' I, . -I Ib ri arri p ra niid I Th' rat,e; icr rnu-,t beiveen 2 i -and 4 Ti per- high lttrilit. and t.ithng crili. -a I r --a-, r p-. rr3iid t. .r h.' -. crfni and glr.. ginth corionirif~ prirnar- i.-mErti . unlcring:ilh:.ri agc nf.-. i-un.-.f. i.ul ri 1I triI,II - IIa th.: tndu;trializr-d nation; -. it h rr;iiit ac r-.ri-n *lr. rh.:.l d-,is.rln I- -1-a.p-l I 1 I,- ih.. luc,iiip r groa-. h rate; bcob.. 1 percent In I !i. - r-p.rulaii.nl in ni-r e tile, lhe nt.i 1cn.rrjii,-n pi .cunit ~, ,ri-- . Ill bu.l I1 rs. t Jl., ir~.r lb.: nar- r. .. ir p-,ram-.i r.-r 22 , -1 --.; rh, .-.utrunabCr in. F-rE . -c,u; -ne Th-. *) en. cir. o. fhal :e 2n.rat..d hi n.. -i-- rtul, Age structure Ls Senegal. IOSO, and 2112i'I it i hc numbt-r N, hirilic pr i. ooir.i aicr.- It h-. ITi, ir Ihh, a ;.Ifinc,- rapidi-. lhw birth rat.. can y'a-, I F.' , rc- .naId Ic .ha . r .-r pa r-,d .LI hgl- :nid rbc vilnunrb-.cr * i,rth;; C,r. t,i - r im, - i,rc..r Lv F- b-c~~~~~~~~~~~~~. 4rrsjc in th,n it ar f. 'i- I l.. n,..l,-r p'. r n)o thr >2.1 in -.i~ni; i.Unirli~ *i \;-ia -,rid [innr nTt. -i i i. ih,: titrtti il-nir.- AcrI r ,a *-- h r..ni t:rrli- Il-- t ir ' i- iI ILi.1 d.Jn.:, Cl-a pr-r 4L, brthV rat;. rm3in L-u~ 5.9)' 1 3 hb nifi nt~, ai - .Er, in I..-: irj-zi trilt r3i. t itll .tl I I- r- rc,rr.. Jild --- I-,- 2 2 nA ~ n I-".n;I-3 t .4b. wat 4 I.,n im I ar.-: r. ar-a thin ,f. I rhinil 1r h liNi jA .-. ld,Iinc -d alna-.! 1,pn ii n th,.tnt h ri 1r.nth rhIn . .thr-r -- t.-.,.. hd ha' I all; n ba -.nla I', F.-- 'cent .1d the - ~~~~~~~~rat.: -~~~ t~~.:ial numb; r -i birth; h i- mi. r i-cd ir,.n: .. ,..ut 3 rr..li..n.a.-:inn'li-:l..i 1 4-.).a. Di,irilrution art :countrie4 troth i-42 i-'ut i inr i,- tart-, 1-.&i I . populairons exceeding I million b% aaerage Pi,&f-65groadh rate - -It. Intr iiPrcl .-. tail tr- I L.. : .-. l.-.iam, it.it- rul ,-. n-un .rc ~ k-lit. that lear rlic i--tal numb,: .-: hrib- ,r.ai.:It i:..~i-.--- hi,%e ini rcr,- J turthcr r- - n,-arl.- - I inm r V.~~~im -.plar -mall dmEr,.n:,_m in 3rinu l gt-irioci ..-r np. pihii.f II in .r- ntI t iii,r,o r,4, - 3, it 1, ,.t n.. ., r 1. t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ii ri.untri ht Inpcludng ajivti r n-a- Ib T.:-,. I-. - 1ula.,- I...r) n . ItiO chnrti r.eate --t c Irip.ndin-c rh.:.a-i.ft-i..o - - a-i t uu-n =-- -- i--er rrn.d pcru.d-ae bi dittcrcn..t .n.or, r. I. rn .r.i ir,.i,l-r1r-- .w i.~ ind p4.pla-i...n ti.r.a.- n.a.rg .- E--.-h, iri.~ ri-idi i.t ., n r-,,n -..w L iii-r po.1r-a- th I- pr-ii.ct - r mir , r ii-i 1crrl rr-- Ti. -p - F.puii- -r...l -r< s ~ - p-ri rr..rrri a I.u; p i ru i. r. i.r Il-C, Il rh T T--t-i- Lch irt ~ i, -- rmh . Ii .:nut j IL 141 - *--:-Iit-- . tiptla - in--- zr.~ rare r : F n.r ,t-n in F,, -l I- rcii n- ii "ii. F - i-pi V-. I r , ar r I.rr rp ,IIh sa,int pcr .id 'i.ui b-r,nti. n nr.a- … r-i 4-i,r1:I.. ii r- r-h' hi i,& Uan.-A L. 1 . Tad -da .r ccri atr .-.rr--r it. ! I rd, .:-. p -ar- i.i r r.1 3 t nipt.-,.r I- ir rr ifh - i i,.-r. -4 ii ri Adlfl M. 1 . .ri I n t 1 tl ni, tIa; 12. .. nl..r in- D , Jr :it a -Dir-n. F- - ra thi i1,. ~i: d rii .It -II ..- l.,r I .:r. rr -- r i , -
have fewer children (see Box 1.1); absolute annual FIGURE 1.2 increases will be close to or more than 80 million Indicators of standard of living, selected countries people a year in developing countries well into the and years next century. The baby "bulge" that resulted from Primary school enrollment rate the trends of high fertility and falling mortality that (percent) started twenty years ago is now entering child- l00 Singapore Chile bearing age. In China, for example, the number of women aged twenty to thirty-four almost doubled United States Brazia Korea between 1950 and 1980; throughout the 1980s, as E and Wales B anIadesh the children born in the 1960s enter their twenties, the number of women marrying and bearing children will continue to increase. To reduce population growth to 1 percent a year by the early 1990s, 50 Japan Sudan $ Ethiopia couples in China would need to have fewer than 0 two children on average. 1900 1960 1980 These considerations should not obscure the Literacy rate central fact that the world's population growth (percent) rate is falling. The latter part of the twentieth cen- United States tury has been a demographic watershed, the high England and Chile point of several centuries of accelerating growth Wales Korea and the beginning of what demographers project Brazil to be a continuous decline, until world population 50 Malaysia stabilizes sometime in the twenty-second century. India Though absolute numbers will continue to increase for several decades, the issue now is how 25 Sudan Bangladesh Pakistan quickly the rate of increase can be slowed downand how individual countries (and the interna- Ethiopia tional community) are to cope with continued 1900 1960 1980 growth in the meantime. Life expectancy at birth (years) The rise in living standards 60 iCrhie Until the seventeenth or eighteenth century, life Sweden Korea Malaysia India expectancy had probably changed little, and few United States Pakistan people were literate. Since 1850, however, while 40 England and Vales . Sudan world population size has more than tripled, income per person has increased perhaps six times in real terms, life expectancy has risen dramati- Japan Ethiopia cally, and education has become widespread. Pro- 20 gress in education and life expectancy in develop- 1900 1960 1980 ing countries has been especially notable since GNP per capita 1950. Even in today's poorer developing countries, (constant 1980-82 dollars) primary school enrollment rates and life expec- M United States tancy are above the levels achieved by richer countries eighty years ago, though income per person 3,000 and adult literacy are not (see Figure 1.2). 2,000 But these averages can be misleading. Though England and Chile most people are better off today, for many the gains have been small. Since 1950 it has been the countries with wltn lower lower levels levels or of income mcome per per person person that have had much faster population growth. In those countries absolute increases in income have been much smaller than in the countries which 1,000 Sweden s Japan ,Sinp Brazil aore ; i Malaysia .. Korea Sudan Pakistan India E thiopa Sources: Tan and Haines, <strong>1984</strong>; U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1960; Keyfitz began the period already richer. Consider a simple and Fleiger, 1968; Mosk, 1983; Johansson, 1977; Zimmerman, 1965. 5
Page 1: Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5: Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7: labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15: I I
Page 16 and 17: countries regain their momentum of
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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nize contraceptive services. As wil
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249:
Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257:
Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273:
Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293:
series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295:
Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297:
estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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