World Development Report 1984

Sahelian countries (see Box 8.4). These and other lation policy in sub-Saharan Africa? Population
countries, such as Ethiopia and Upper Volta, have control is a sensitive political issue wherever relineither
the physical capital nor the skills to com- gious and tribal groups are competing for
pensate for a shortage of natural resources. A few resources. And much of the pressure for smaller
countries-such as Angola, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, families has come from (or is perceived to come
Zaire, and Zambia-are rich in natural resources, from) western aid donors; this pressure can cause
but need extra skills, as well as heavy investment local resentment.
in roads and storage and distribution systems to Even if these factors were less important, politiexploit
those resources. cians would still be hesitant to propose smaller
In all sub-Saharan countries, the labor force is families when the demand for children is
growing rapidly, by more than 3 percent a year in extremely high. Recent surveys in six countries
most countries, meaning a doubling about every found that women wanted between six and nine
twenty years. Government revenues are growing children in their completed families. Depending
slowly as a result of slow or no economic growth, on the country, only 4 to 17 percent of currently
so countries have had to struggle not only to pro- married, fecund women wanted no more children,
vide jobs but to provide basic services such as edu- and most of them had already had at least six. In
cation. In 1978 education was taking 16 percent of much of the region the concept of self-determined
national budgets, but reached less than two-thirds family size is unknown. Modern contraception is
of primary-school-age children. Only a tiny frac- poorly understood and lacks social legitimacy. In
tion of the people can obtain modern medical care. this atmosphere couples who wish to use family
Human development in all its forms is essential to planning services are discouraged from doing so.
future economic progress but, as Chapter 5 And, compared with other regions, infertility
showed, population growth makes it hard to affects a disproportionate number of Africans,
achieve. These difficulties will remain, because tragically depriving some women of any children
sub-Saharan Africa's current population of 385 (see Box 8.5). The threat of infertility discourages
million seems set to double by the year 2005. That couples from controlling their childbearing
much is almost inevitable. The real question is through modern contraception.
whether populations will merely triple in size in Policy development and political commitment
the next half-century or increase even more rap- are constrained throughout the region by a lack of
idly, to five or six times their current size. recent and reliable demographic data needed to
Few sub-Saharan countries have explicit policies demonstrate the magnitude and consequences of
to reduce rapid population growth. Kenya was the rapid population growth. Many African countries,
first to adopt such policies in 1967, Ghana followed particularly in Francophone Africa, do not have a
in 1969, and Mauritius in the early 1970s. There are long history of census-taking. In some countries
recent indications of heightened concern about where censuses have been conducted, the results
rapid population growth in Burundi, the Comoros, have never been published because of political
Malawi, Rwanda, Senegal, and Zimbabwe. About controversy. As a result, the size and growth rate
half the governments in sub-Saharan Africa pro- of population for countries such as Ethiopia,
vide family planning services for health and Guinea, Nigeria, and Zaire are not known within a
human rights reasons, but without any explicit reasonable degree of certainty.
demographic purpose. Limited services are pro- Yet census results are important in demonstratvided
by a few private associations and through an ing to political leaders the need for population polalready
overstretched public health system, with icy. The results of the 1976 Senegalese census
poor coverage of rural areas. Twelve sub-Saharan implied a population growth rate of 2.9 percent a
countries neither have population policies nor sup- year, much higher than the 2.2 percent annual rate
port family planning. Most are in Francophone in the 1960s. This prompted the president to create
Africa-Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Mada- the National Population Commission in 1978 to
gascar, Mauritania, Niger, and Upper Volta- consider a population policy and family planning
where anticontraception laws from the colonial services. The 1960 census was a catalyzing factor
period are still in effect. These countries have no for population policy in Ghana. The World Fertility
tradition of private family planning associations, Survey, conducted in Benin, Cameroon, Ghana,
which are elsewhere active in lobbying govern- the Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Mauritania,
ments for public involvement. Nigeria, Senegal, and Sudan, has made an impor-
What explains the limited development of popu- tant contribution to improving demographic data
163