World Development Report 1984

improving the availability of family planning serv- FIGURE 8.1
ices. But in taking the next steps in population Fertility in relation to income: selected developing
policy, each region faces a different set of issues. countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 1972 and 1982
Sub-Saharan Africa: how to increase public commitment 9
Total fertility rate
* 1972
Sub-Saharan Africa has the fastest population * 1982
growth rate and the highest fertility in the world. 8 Kenya
Between 1970 and 1979 population increased at 2.7
percent a year, up from 2.5 percent a year during Ethiopla
the 1960s. In a few East African countries popula- - udan l
tion is growing at 4 percent or more a year. Of the .. Nigeria
thirty-three sub-Saharan countries with more than 6 Zaire
1 million people, thirty have a total fertility rate of Norm for 92 developing countries, 1972
6 or more. Kenya, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe have
fertility rates of 8 or more. Probably fewer than 10 5
percent of married women of reproductive age are
using modern contraception. Sub-Saharan Africa 4
is the only region in which fertility has not begun Norm for 98 developing countries, 1982
to fall, and in which population growth is expected
to accelerate in the next decade. 3
Africa is also the poorest region, with a per cap- 0 $1000 $2000 $3000
ita income averaging only $482 in 1982-or $354 if Income percapita (1980 dollars)
Nigeria is excluded. During the 1970s per capita
income grew in real terms by just 0.8 percent a
year; if Nigeria is excluded, it declined. The
region's gross domestic product stagnated in 1981 The poor economic performance of sub-Saharan
and 1982, while population rose 2.7 percent in each Africa cannot be blamed on rapid population
year. Fertility in most countries is higher than growth alone, nor will slower population growth
income alone would predict (see Figure 8.1). But solve all its economic problems. External economic
when Africa's high mortality, low literacy, and shocks, as well as inappropriate domestic policies,
largely rural population are taken into account, fer- have contributed to the region's economic crisis.
tility is not unusually high. About a third of the But rapid population growth is creating severe
adult population are literate in sub-Saharan coun- strains in some countries and, throughout the
tries, compared with half of adults in all low- region as a whole, it is holding back improvements
income countries and two-thirds in all middle- in living standards.
income countries (see Table 8.2). Life expectancy at The strains are acute in a few countries and areas
birth is forty-nine years, ten years less than in that are already overcrowded-Burundi, Kenya,
other countries at the same income level. Malawi, eastern Nigeria, Rwanda, and parts of the
TABLE 8 2
Development indicators: Africa compared with all developing countries
Per capita Adult Lifet Primaril-school
i)coC01e literacy cxpectaicsl Cenrollminent ratio, femialc'
1982 1980 1982 1981
Cooitry yroup (dollars) (perce(lt) (years) (perce77t)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Low-income 249 38 49 57
Middle-income 777 35 50 70
All low-income countries 280 52 59 81
All middle-income countries 1,520 65 60 95
Note: Averages are weighted by 1982 population.
a. Number of females enrolled in primary school as a percentage of all females of primary-school age.
162