Box 8.2 China's census: counting a billion people C Ina ,, ri-, ,r, hi-tori. jj p pulat,on st3- 3Th,-tan; .t t \JFF ih. g - r nrnm,ni n1 L-.t ..r. i--' n I'n-.- ii. tip, t,;ti:; Ii ti e; inr -, i o r ' Inmatt e.p.- to publish *..unllri re Ii r l.- . r rnd d. .. n- ,n taminn ,r, d ran * . rie; |ir,.,hing back to the Zhou d,r.3;r . I:.-:aid ajmin,-rr.ai.t un,r; b.ir. ilhe .rd bci. rr r-,inn,n, it,n ir,n-,i,.:,r, I.... ih,A., 3nd e,r 5 - b: nore ih.e n ..iI' -onan.,.:. t*idu'. ,nr, l-C. F;'IIl, had rea"d.d |U*u' But cenl iu9 iAI.,n dt ri.iratd in I'. ih *u:h : arc. , undtrral inc ;.in, 1-. .A at*t 2 2 in I'" th,hn r..- b, 1I rhc moderr era There .ai . bead ;!unt .-.npr.ri.-.:- had Ic. bhe mad.:-heet- r . pr..:.rit n IuSI In tha .ear mn.r, than a U I . t er 4111 minilkn Ch,r.e- in 1'.-, rapidi ,eedlaci. I rc 'ull, and c. : k ih,rd hrn1 1 . .. r, nr .... . u; ncr i- |D.a tronm Thc I'n .:Ir.;u- r -impl, nlu re.rnri ,- iragt Fo-r r.it er-I Ji,d.d c.leio.n and rl, de-p.r. .e-.:hi.i p.1k rJeaI ed .hJ ed a p. pulan.on *1 iu;i not .- r-t 4ien.:.: but A rit. 5 .n. .- J...d ,3n -..er halt -'t .fll birlh . .-rc r n . r under -iII1 million r,.z Epn'eu .r pic; .- - .. ,rk r.id oth.r h,. F..r .-rdr ThL ;ur e. ih-. J rt,t,.d In ihe t i... r- . e- .-. I lul- lS2 thr ctraT:ii til I.-.ti,n- a .- 1r;. . r- iti-tac. r. daia le -' -t - .rcbi -. . uh ih eouit.n .,t Ihinme- .,: rnment rnr-hllied a r. ree ce lt'.n n.ith. .d A -ub at -,,r. p pu.p. i i -:l* 1niliic.r. ;n'uz taiker- nd th-ir S.'. - tel., *L,L'tC i I ,b-ut I njil- Th, .ibc.%: - ni,nnend hndir.4 r ir.nn ,uper'. r..r.. .:arr.. ur :, n.r. *:nwu; I.... -. M,.r. in... ha, . been rni-. di ihL. tn tlh..- :e u- .r.d rtIe : m r.E ...n-np1renf tF-, arc-.. e.er an,. here . car;u. count .i.h -i,me.i .*rr..r and .. -- .....1: l ph.:, h, .. ri mi'l ripid hand-pr.ec-;ng ir. 5-pitniNr 1' k - I h..n th fdhrn.:'. re' inror t,rew p.'pulai-n. r pc,.:. h th, !o-.rnnrn p,blrt LI ]h d in.,tal r-Lt M*ultil rtir ,rt. llpr.kFtinF th, .:r- the ........... 11-, lie .,. -al -c 3.-rol ln ctt-..........ri; ;,re r,.nl.rin,reicr her jir n .n.. .. ' rr . . . ....... .-.. n , t ,cu:E China ni,".t c.n;uz . -n,.:,t,.:.n- 3r in %Ir... -in.:. pe.:i'.e Ner1i ~U .r .: r -'n, mnil l-- h... h , iri- t-'r Ss of e- p.'rwi.n- that ouni iin'l. ; r,.t1 p-.-puialion rN..Jd . n.n t..:. p ron, rnm ... i i hn-n -n. -... r1 %r - ..- uTri,. -' i a ;h Ir i.- have in such tilhnon pers..n; ii, ,';n, ad ancd -, C..ni- n .irJ in rh,r h. ni- h, in-rn. C.'.it tvlri ' ili;i 'ik p...r-n t. hr.t.'i..z' .uF... pliled1 .. itilt ih Iii., i- t lund rb:. irr,l. rt.;m b. " and analyzed census data not more than ten years experience of countries shown in Table 8.1 sugold and other national sample surveys document- gests the importance of institutionalizing two funcing current fertility, mortality, and contraceptive tions: use at more frequent intervals (item A in Table 8.1). * Relating demographic targets to the policies Lack of reliable demographic data has hampered and resources necessary to achieve them. A poputhe growth of political support for population poli- lation policy should include consideration of the cies in sub-Saharan Africa. Data collection and demographic benefits of a wide range of social polanalysis is a continuous process, necessary to icies, in education, health, and social security, as monitor trends and the effect of policies over time. well as in family planning. It should also consider the complementarities among these policies. This POLITICAL COMMITMENT. Support for slowing is fundamentally a planning function, one which population growth has been expressed in public relates demographic variables and policy alternastatements by the head of state and other national tives (item C). It is usually the responsibility of a leaders, and in written statements of national pri- specialized unit within a planning ministry, such orities, such as a national development plan (item as the Manpower Board of the Ministry of Finance B). These statements can range from a general and Plan in Ghana, and the Population Planning commitment to reducing population growth to Section within the Planning Commission in specific demographic targets (see Box 8.3). Coun- Bangladesh. tries with strong policies have been able to mobi- * Coordinating and evaluating the implementalize visible and sustained political commitment, tion of population policy. This may require few not only at the highest levels of government but new institutional arrangements if the scope of popthroughout the political and administrative hierar- ulation policy is limited to, say, wider provision of chy, down to those who are in immediate touch family planning. In this case, the policy coordinatwith the public. This commitment helps to forge ing body may be the one that also coordinates cooperation among the numerous sectors and min- multisectoral family planning activities. But as istries involved in population policy. population policy becomes more complex, it is likely to involve the joint efforts of other minis- INSTITUTIONS. The role of institutions is to trans- tries: education (for population education and late political commitment into effective policy. The female literacy); information (to encourage breast- 158
Box 8.3 Demographic policy objectives \i I .ar tn. -I r -I . rI-pr -.u ri re e - par th.Žr: -,hm i.-ih Ihr-- Ir.: Ut- r . I , rI lr .. 211 p r ccnt - n iiil .r *.r.-pr inrt : n.-r. -r. thr-.p.i ,r ..r . :1-m:- tn.ipiid bh Pt. u§ c LiŽartd{ a c-rr t . ra . I I 12 r. pir, Ir, It In nbc ti h'.'PUI itr ii I rt, n.1 fl 1 .Un- L V. -nrid Kink ,-1t1nt`i * sta0 da1; a rd d.-1l n. i l" Irh ii.ial tar -r in -hima, - a pt--p X tnii-h ; ..... id. pl.d *.ttii. - .1 r.-il d-ain- -i ith3ptr 4i Lil.i,-,r. in I 1 2 L nil i.r, I. '2ili-ii Fr rtl. J t hr rih r. b i - r'r - ulr ..tu.. zrc.'.r.- I- Ti tjr4l.in r rl t -i in t,rmn; th-:4t .unRr , -c rFr; *,r tRiR i,' *rn in ICr ,,,nir, un.. )i nI ttlt. t.i4 . a rtrl.rk rar, 1 IFRI ..r thl dhl, titt- jrpro.- lti r.|r F11ud 1t- .ir r,rn,- .r aclti,- nfl a pirih ulit total njitr b, rth rI: Chl'. r ,, r-d 1U -'IIt tt .. d ' :i i. t~rkriin ric- crurde birth rai r,.% rcpr.- i- .. I ih, .-. 'urlrmt P . ii hI. H SpI- in mo,!t ctntrir- lheb Q,-Qernflf ,n .,3 ,a! tu,t,..r Tat, rinc I-.t p-p. liti..n ,-r. rh ib d I i- I lr;-tI ir. dIticrni nr . S plcp -hiat i e, ar.: ..tn;para tl r. r. -*|.r r p*p'H F-Psin t'. ,r. a ci- n %rar Thh.. burI1a,d *h. Itrr.a,i hnd hIp, i-chi,n I r II.u. r- rt- n u tI an I1 , -i ' l' *un.nijracr .IIt.nl r *iWrI- I.pcn iccrapli. . rEt Fr .dcrriLnlpalt 1, Ir r a IiItI 1 1. tir :,:h i ,:; aI rpIc d d :hni i,n -n- r. r -,-I i] .-r-:' l,cil .;un- t tn ..n . r 'Iy I I.. it , hanri,, . .;lh I- 3 .'pulitl I ..1t I. i ttIII I Demographic targels and projections of fertility declines, selected countries and i-ears ~~~~~~~~, h.t.' i n' - TI rFra I nd I,, ~ ~ i ~ r F ~ ' ~ c-t to i Pati^ia P -p h Ind. -nL-.Ia 2111 I ' -, R- * ~ ~ ~ ~ V! - (r' (T (F T 2 2' ; 1,di la-il.- 21[ 2' 2 2 1 Ind, nt s, 1"'@l ' ' ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 2 '-. - . ;|: 5 'J -'4~~~~~~~~~~4'i kR- [ot, i'm" 2 1 2hI 4 2 2 2'' A r rpal 1 l * 23 -. 2 ' 24 uk- i :it '- ^,s, '; ln- n' 4 4; '' 2 "- ih,.IF ,n,l. IUNn 2' 34 11 .ui _ Gh lln1I'n. it it I 'AI 4n HZF 'r 2l% 2' I -' 4 TsIr.. .;i-- n - 1 1%v1tE 21411 4 n ii 41 . ' T.,n-,a 21ri 22 *I'l 'r L utin Andi idevelopmen ,n p.i e iL'n F.;iti I!:1 u it rn hr,"i 2i0I: r 2u 34 . 2 2' - 4 It cm.;n .;- 2i1u.1 :' I 2 2 2n' 2 I 2 F ,:t1' 'ii1 i rl1. ,1 ,, feeding and use of family planning); justice (age at pendent base in the government (item D), separate -marriage, incentives and disincentives); women's from the delivery system for family planning. The affairs, rural development, and cooperatives (inte- institutional arrangements vary: a unit within an grated population and development projects). For existing ministry of health or planning but with example, very few countries now give much prior- representatives from many ministries (Tunisia, ity to raising the legal age of marriage as part of Panama); an extraministerial committee (Egypt, demographic policy-more likely because the insti- Mexico); or a separate ministry devoted entirely to tutional framework to do so is poor than because multisectoral population policies (Indonesia). the costs of implementing such a policy are high. There is no consensus on what works best; sus- As the task of coordination becomes more com- tained political commitment seems to matter more plicated, the responsible body may need an inde- to the outcome than organizational structure. 159
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Table 11. Structure of merchandise
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation