World Development Report 1984

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countries regain their momentum of the 1960s, but until well into the twentieth century, the world's at only 4.7 percent a year in that period if the population grew at the then unprecedented rate of industrial countries do no better than in the past about 0.5 percent a year, faster in today's develten years. That would make the difference oped countries, slower elsewhere. <strong>World</strong> populabetween almost every country in the world raising tion size doubled again, this time in about 150 per capita incomes and people in many of the years; it had reached about 1.7 billion by 1900. In world's poorest countries growing steadily poorer. the twentieth century, growth continued to accel- Chapter 3 also explores the gains that develop- erate, from 0.5 to 1 percent until about 1950 and ing countries could make by improving their own then to a remarkable 2 percent. In just over thirty economic policies, irrespective of what happens in years, between 1950 and today, world population the industrial countries. It concludes that, if they nearly doubled again-growing from 2.5 billion to make such improvements, some countries might almost 4.8 billion (see Figure 1.1). be able to add close to an extra percentage point to Since 1950 population growth has been concentheir economic growth rates. None of these trated largely in the developing countries. Though improvements can be regarded as unachievable, a postwar baby boom combined with falling morsince they have already been achieved by some tality in the industrial countries, the population developing countries. The chapter stresses the growth rate never exceeded 1 percent in Europe valuable contribution that appropriate pricing poli- and seldom exceeded 1.5 percent in North Amercies can make to faster economic growth. In partic- ica. At its peak, fertility in the United States meant ular, it contrasts the record of countries that have that families had on average little more than three adopted outward-looking trade policies with those children; in Europe and Japan postwar families that have concentrated on import substitution. were even smaller. By the 1970s, in most devel- The predicament of sub-Saharan Africa is a oped countries fertility had fallen to a level near or recurring theme throughout this <strong>Report</strong>. Though even below "replacement"-about two children its total GDP growth was not much slower than in per couple being the level which, over the long other regions in the 1970s, Africa's population run, holds population constant (demographic grew faster; for the region as a whole, GDP per terms are defined in the glossary). capita fell during the 1970s. It could well do so The postwar experience of developing countries again in the years up to 1995. Of the policy failings was not only different but historically unprecethat contributed to slow growth in other develop- dented. Driven by falling mortality and continued ing countries, all can be found in more or less high fertility, their population growth rate rose chronic form in many African countries. The scope above 2 percent a year. It peaked at 2.4 percent in for raising growth rates by improving policies is the 1960s. It is now around 2.0 percent a year, therefore greatest in Africa. In addition, however, because of a slightly greater decline in birth rates many of Africa's weaknesses require extra conces- than in death rates (see Figure 1.1). Further decline sional aid if they are to be tackled effectively. in population growth will not come automatically. Much of the slowdown so far can be attributed to Population and demographic change China, where fertility is already low, close to an average of two children per family. Most families While the causes of poor economic performance in other developing countries now have at least can be traced back twenty years, the links between four children, in rural areas five and more. In a few demography and development can be understood countries in which fertility fell in the 1970s, there is only by going back even farther into the past. In evidence that it has leveled off recently. For parts the long run of history, the second half of the of South Asia and the Middle East, forecasts of a twentieth century stands out for its remarkable lower rate of population growth are based more on population growth. Consider that in the year 1 the hope than on present trends. For much of Africa world had about 300 million people. Its population and Central America, population growth rates are then took more than 1,500 years to double. rising and could rise still further. In Africa couples Though the general trend was rising, population say they want more children than in fact they are growth was not steady; the balance of births over having, while mortality-though high-can be deaths was tenuous, and crises such as war or expected to decline. plague periodically reduced populations in parts of Furthermore, population "momentum" means the world. Only in the eighteenth century did the that growth rates in developing countries will number of people start to rise steadily. From 1750 remain high for several decades even if couples 2
A.D. 1-2150 Population world population, Fast and projected BCrth and death rates, 195 0-8O Crude rate ) (pera th1977 U 1(Per Stu,yces5 Durand, 1977; UN, 1966. A. Crude thousand) .~ . (blins) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 12 8 3 DeeOped ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~countries' Population 20
Page 1: Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5: Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7: labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9: 8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11: Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13: Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15: I I
Page 18 and 19: 4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21: example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23: ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25: etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27: FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29: 14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31: TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33: export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35: Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39: TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41: Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45: of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47: In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49: 3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53: TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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nize contraceptive services. As wil
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
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Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
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FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
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Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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largest city in 1950, will not even
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FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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government goal is a nationwide rat
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North America's population in 2000
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IBox 4.6 Three views of population
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TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
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Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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implied by a simple division of tot
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and on farms. But the evidence on e
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get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
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youths, who are presumably able to
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saving because they come from the c
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acre increased from 15.4 million to
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food they need. Although the amount
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is so scarce, they can do so only o
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from rural to urban areas mainly re
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other developing countries suggests
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emigration by providing information
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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
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6 Slowing population growth Experie
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feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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the education of mothers increases
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etter education and health services
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TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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effectiveness of existing laws, ins
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
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FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
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Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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few births; to encourage spacing, T
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Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
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Box"7.1 Family planning for health
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FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
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132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
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TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
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TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
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