World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
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in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility was changing little 1977 rather than levels at one point in time during<br />
during the late 1960s. the period.<br />
But family planning programs spread rapidly in One objection to this type of study is that the<br />
the late 1960s and early 1970s, and more systematic family planning index may itself be the result of a<br />
information on them is now available. demand for contraception that already existed as a<br />
* A country-level family planning index was byproduct of development. In this case, family<br />
developed in the mid-1970s. It was based on coun- planning services provided by the government<br />
tries' performance in 1972 on fifteen criteria, such may simply displace traditional methods of contraas<br />
the availability of many contraceptive methods, ception or modern methods already available<br />
either through government programs or commer- through the private sector. Indeed, analysis does<br />
cially; inclusion of fertility reduction in official pol- show that in the early 1970s family planning proicy;<br />
adequacy of the family planning administra- grams were more likely to be instituted and were<br />
tive structure; and use of mass media and more successful where demand for contraception<br />
fieldworkers. The index has been updated for this already existed: Korea, Hong Kong, and Singa-<br />
<strong>Report</strong> to 1982; countries are classified into groups pore. The existence and strength of early programs<br />
by this index as of 1972 and 1982 in Table 6 of the is closely related to the proportion of educated<br />
Population Data Supplement. women (itself a measure of demand for services),<br />
* Household and community surveys con- and to the degree to which fertility had declined in<br />
ducted within countries during the 1970s provided the late 1960s. But these factors do not completely<br />
information on the distance and travel time to explain differences in the family planning index; to<br />
services for household members. Those carried out some extent, indices were stronger or weaker<br />
as part of the <strong>World</strong> Fertility Survey (WFS) project because of other factors-political leadership, for<br />
in over forty countries, and of the Contraceptive example. And the change in country effort between<br />
Prevalence Survey (CPS) project in about fifteen 1972 and 1982 is not at all related to earlier declines<br />
countries, have several advantages: most are rep- in fertility or to levels of development; it has been<br />
resentative, nationwide samples and, because sim- more clearly the result of government initiatives.<br />
ilar questions were asked everywhere, are largely Furthermore, although family planning programs<br />
comparable among countries. are in part a response to preexisting demand,<br />
These two sources, supplemented by the results recent studies show that such programs do have<br />
of small experimental field studies, have provided an independent effect on fertility. Cross-country<br />
the basis for careful analyses of the effects of family analysis shows that, for the average country, preplanning<br />
programs. They leave little doubt that the vious fertility decline accounted for 33 percent of<br />
programs work. the total fall in fertility between 1965 and 1975;<br />
socioeconomic change accounted for 27 percent;<br />
CROSS-COUNTRY STUDIES. Using the family plan- the family planning index accounted for more than<br />
ning index, along with indicators such as literacy, either: 40 percent.<br />
life expectancy, and GNP per capita in about 1970,<br />
research in the late 1970s found that birth rates STUDIES WITHIN COUNTRIES. The cross-country<br />
declined most (29 to 40 percent) between 1965 and studies are complemented by several examples of<br />
1975 in countries such as Costa Rica, Korea, and apparent family planning success in individual<br />
Singapore, where socioeconomic development countries. In China and Indonesia, per capita<br />
was relatively advanced and family planning pro- income is low and the population still overwhelmgrams<br />
were strong. There was a modest decline in ingly rural, but governments have made a conbirth<br />
rates (10 to 16 percent) where development certed effort to bring family planning services to<br />
was relatively strong but the family planning index the villages. In China the birth rate at the end of<br />
was weak, as in Brazil and Turkey. There was also 1982 was estimated to be nineteen per 1,000 peoa<br />
modest decline where development levels were ple, down from forty in the 1960s. The current figlow<br />
but the family planning index was moderately ure, based on birth registrations rather than on a<br />
strong, as in India and Indonesia. (Indonesia's census, may slightly understate the actual birth<br />
family planning program, now one of the world's rate; but it would still be well below current rates<br />
strongest, had been operating for only two years in South Asia, Africa, and most of Latin America.<br />
by 1972, the reference year for the family planning Up to 70 percent of Chinese couples of childbearindex.)<br />
The same results emerged from using mea- ing age are estimated to be using modern contrasurements<br />
of socioeconomic change from 1970 to ceptives. The government believes that its family<br />
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