World Development Report 1984

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etter education and health services, a wider range charge exorbitant rates are undersold by banks and of jobs, and mote avenues for self-improvement credit unions so that the price of credit comes and social mobility. They also face higher costs in down. Trustworthy institutions gradually establish raising children. As a result, urban fertility is lower themselves and offer means to save and borrow. than rural fertility, on average by between one and The benefits of education in leading to higher two births per mother. This is true of migrants income emerge; contacts and kin matter less as from rural areas as well as of long-term urban resi- guarantors of jobs and of help with the harvest. dents. Indeed, recent evidence shows that Greater market efficiency affects fertility in sevmigrants in Colombia, Korea, and Thailand (and eral ways. First, the logic of investing in children, immigrants in the United States) often have even especially in their education, becomes clearer. Seclower fertility than that of their urban counterparts ond, children become less important as safeguards of comparable education, perhaps because they in times of disaster and as old-age security. Their are particularly interested in providing education greater regional mobility makes them less dependfor their children. able as a source of support, and other instruments Apart from these advantages, is there a purely for old-age security, such as provident funds and urban effect on fertility? One feature of urban life is social insurance, come into the picture. A study of wider and more varied personal contacts. These a rural area of southern Mexico where a social encourage people to search more widely before security program was extended to cover sugarcane opting for a marriage partner. In ten out of four- workers demonstrated that program coverage of teen developing countries studied, the urban half the working population led to a 10 percent woman marries on average at least one and a half decline in fertility. In India participation in a proviyears later than does the rural woman; the gap is dent fund is associated with later marriage and, in shortened, but not eliminated, when socioeco- nuclear households, with lower fertility. In both nomic differences between urban and rural women India and Malaysia, women more so than men are taken into account. In addition, in urban areas look to children for support in old age. Information the idea of controlling fertility and the means of about programs to provide insurance and security doing so is spread more quickly. And, by being should probably be directed more to women than exposed to new consumer goods, urban people are it is currently. encouraged to delay or limit their childrearing to There is little question that socioeconomic increase their incomes. change in the long run lowers fertility and slows But living in towns and cities is certainly not a population growth. At the same time, the evidence sufficient condition for lower fertility. Nor is it is that socioeconomic gains from a low level do not even necessary, to judge by the declines in fertility slow population growth much-and can even raise in rural areas of China, Colombia, Indonesia, and it. A small drop in infant and child mortality Sri Lanka. The changes that do lower fertility- results in more mouths to be fed. In some settings, increased education, better opportunities for chil- a couple of years of primary education lead to dren, and so forth-can occur just as well in the slightly larger families. Employment of women in countryside. In largely agricultural countries, dif- cottage industries or in other low-paying part-time ferences in fertility between urban and rural areas jobs permits households to support additional chilare small anyway. In much of Africa and South dren. Living in small towns does less to reduce Asia, which are largely rural, it is clearly futile to fertility than does living in larger cities. That many wait for urbanization alone to reduce fertility. It is of these changes take time to have an effect only only in the already more urbanized societies of underlines the need to begin them now. At the Latin America and East Asia that further urbaniza- same time, other measures that complement and tion will lower fertility quickly. speed socioeconomic change can hasten a decline in fertility. Markets, security, andfertility One feature of development is that markets Marriage, breastfeeding, and contraception become more efficient. Markets for labor, for capi- Where fertility has fallen significantly, it has been tal, for land, and for many goods enlarge and regulated significantly-by methods that have diversify. Better transport helps this process along, included contraception and abortion. In the early as does the increasing scale and interpenetration of stages of falling fertility, however, marriage timing rural and urban life. Local moneylenders who and breastfeeding practices can reduce fertility. 112
FIGURE 6.4 measured), delayed marriage contributes little, Average timing of reproductive events in selected types of societies and contraception virtually nothing. In Bangla- desh, Pakistan, and Nepal the pattern is similar. Bangladesh has the longest period of breastfeeding society Conception Birth (twenty-nine months) and the youngest average Y Marriage eation F sterility age at marriage for women (sixteen years). In other Modern developed t ! I I - countries, such as Thailand, Korea, and Mexico, breastfeeding does not last so long, but later marriage partly compensates. In Costa Rica and Sri Lanka delayed marriage accounts for a substantial HistoricalIadeaemaraeacutfoasutnil Euro ean ] part of the low fertility rates, which are below four; in Sri Lanka breastfeeding is also important. Over time, reductions in breastfeeding have Traditional developing L ' l l i I 7 slowed the decline in fertility in India, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. Delays in marriage have contributed to the decline, roughly offsetting the effect Theoretical maximumrnI111I I' !11 I 1 111IlI 11 -I I I III oi Of less breastfeeding. The major factor in fertility decline in all four countries, however, has been an fertility " increase in contraceptive use. Averaging indices 15 I 20 I 25 I l 30 35 I l 40 45 I | 50 for many countries provides a composite picture of change over a long period (see Figure 6.5). Of the Woman's age reduction in total fertility of almost 5 children over Source: Bongaarts and Potter, 1983. the whole period, delay in marriage contributes a reduction of about 1.4 children; reduced breastfeeding works in the opposite direction, raising fertility by about 1.5 children. Increased use of Even without directly altering desired family size, contraception contributes the most, about 4.5, and they can help make the goals of individuals more increased abortion contributes about 0.5. compatible with those of society at large. Breastfeeding reduces fertility by suppressing fecundity; Raising age at marriage it also reduces high infant mortality. Later marriage reduces population growth by lengthening The younger women marry, the earlier they start the interval between generations; it also fosters a childbearing and the longer they are exposed to climate that encourages women to expand their the risk of conception. They lose the chance of horizons beyond the family. longer schooling and of employment, and they Figure 6.4 illustrates how the childbearing span enter marriage with less motivation and fewer peris affected by age at marriage, breastfeeding, and sonal resources to plan their families successfully. fertility regulation. Traditional developing societies In addition, early marriage means a shorter gap achieve high fertility through marriage that is rela- between successive generations, significantly tively early and waiting times to conception that increasing the birth rate. are mostly short. Fertility would be even higher In South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa about half except for lengthy breastfeeding, complemented in of all women aged between fifteen and nineteen some instances by sexual abstinence. Today's are, or have been, married; in the Middle East and developed economies achieve low fertility by later North Africa the proportion is close to a quarter. It marriage and long periods between births, made falls to less than 20 percent in Latin America and in possible by contraception and abortion. East Asia, and to less than 5 percent in Hong Kong All these factors have played some part in reduc- and Korea. Still, variations among the countries in ing the number of babies per mother from the the- each region are considerable. In Tunisia only 5 peroretical maximum of seventeen. Their respective cent of women aged fifteen to nineteen have been contributions have been calculated for twenty-nine married, in Libya more than 70 percent. In Banglacountries covered by the <strong>World</strong> Fertility Survey desh the mean age at marriage for women is six- (see Table 6.1). In the five African countries, where teen; in Sri Lanka it is twenty-five. If Bangladesh total fertility is high, breastfeeding accounts for the could immediately adopt the Sri Lankan marriage bulk of forgone fertility (sexual abstinence was not pattern, with no other change in fertility practices, 113
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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nize contraceptive services. As wil
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Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
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Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147: 132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149: TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151: TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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Page 158 and 159: Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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Page 162 and 163: measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165: Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
Page 166 and 167: costs per user. Public cost per use
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Page 170 and 171: TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173: Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
Page 174 and 175: FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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