World Development Report 1984

More documents

Recommendations

Info

feTtility; nor is it easy to judge the importance of tality. As shown in Chapter 4, many of the less diffione program compared with another. cult ways to reduce mortality-through antimalarial campaigns, for example-have already been Socioeconomic factors and fertility exploited; further progress against mortality requires changes in people's behavior. Family planning serv- One possible remedy for population growth can be ices are an obvious example. Though primarily seen ruled out at the start: accepting a rise in death as a way to reduce fertility, family planning can be a rates, or even a slower decline than is possible. major contributor to lower mortality-both of infants High death rates do slow population growth. But and of mothers (see Box 7.1 in the next chapter). The the main reason for wanting slower growth is to same is true for the education of women; women's improve people's well-being-to move quickly education can lower fertility by delaying marriage, by toward a balance of low death and birth rates, thus increasing the effectiveness of contraceptive use, and completing the demographic transition. by giving women ideas and opportunities beyond childbearing alone. Women's education is also a Reduicing infant and child mnortality major contributor to lower mortality. High infant mortality is part of the setting that pro- Raising income motes high fertility (Chapter 4). Parents who expect some children to die may insure themselves Since children are a source of satisfaction, one by giving birth to more babies than they want or might expect richer parents to have more of them. expect to survive. High infant mortality can cause Within the same socioeconomic group, this is often high fertility for biological reasons as well: breast- so: among small farmers, for example, those with feeding delays the return of regular ovulation, so more land often have higher fertility (although the interval between a birth and the next concep- their fertility is lower than the fertility of the landtion may be shortened if a baby dies. less-see Box 6.1). Rising incomes are also associ- In the short term, the prevention of ten infant ated with decreased breastfeeding, which raises deaths yields one to five fewer births, depending fertility unless contraceptives are used. Where on the setting. Thus lower infant and child mortal- marriages are delayed by the need for a dowry, or ity leads to somewhat larger families and faster by the costs of setting up a household, rising rates of population growth than otherwise. But incomes permit earlier marriage and earlier childeffects in the long term are more important. With bearing-and thus higher fertility. But these effects improved chances of survival, children receive are transitory and may be avoided altogether. They more attention from their parents, and parents are can be offset by the social changes that accompany willing to spend more on their children's health economic growth-such as education and family and education. Lower mortality not only helps planning programs-and that work to lower parents to achieve their desired family size with fertility. fewer births, it leads them to want a smaller family This relation adds up to a well-established fact: as well. in the long run, people with more income want The 1980 World Development Report reviewed poli- fewer children. Alternative uses of time-earning cies and programs to improve health and reduce money, developing and using skills, enjoying leimortality. This Report focuses on measures to sure-become more attractive, particularly to speed the decline in fertility for three reasons: women who are primarily responsible for bringing * Fertility will henceforth have a much stronger up children. Parents start to want healthier and influence than mortality on population size; this was better-educated but fewer children. Education of discussed in Chapter 4. A rapid fall in fertility is all children becomes more attractive as job opportunithe more urgent to ensure slower population growth ties depend less on traditional factors-class origin without compromising efforts to reduce mortality. or family background-and more on education and * High fertility and unplanned births contribute to associated skills. And children's work becomes high infant (and child) mortality. Many children, less important to family welfare. Higher income born close together, weaken the mother and the baby means an increased surplus to invest in land or and make it harder for the family to afford health care other assets, a greater awareness of alternative and food. investments, and the spread of social security and * The policies and programs that reduce fertility pension schemes that guard against destitution in are more than ever those which will also reduce mor- emergencies or in old age. In short, it is not higher 108
Box 6.1 Landholding and fertility.| I ,r,d r-.r',rr 'r.- .,rrI1rn *u. 1i, I II,nd I.uidM.l, . . tI ;Ijre hiI . * J rb.I f:,n c .1& l 7r, tLr,ril .mmun'ilrh . r I'rdr .r. n...r,,. di,n,- .,, . I ,rir I hl.r ;r.r..l. in .- a- s,. l n .311:d .; l ..r; . . rv 3r nri ,r r'u r.r, rur,l ,r , .. ind r. 1 : -rt 1'.'.- dre n ...r-.prd . ... n:aI 4 -r:rr.r :I .I I r r,j,:I r,;hr -. r , . .-ir *u. .^u.nr ,l,IiIh 1111,1 eurr r- .tr ;lI *. ih i r... .r. rr- -,r I-d I 1,.h.r TrrtillL. tn...l nl. .lr.juI -rti1 * ..: rriri'. ,r b..h,. jr r * - I-r r r,r . ,. - .n L,nJ . ..:r th., I.ir,,h Idh ,i. .I -1 b.t a r,,ri I,r.e.t- I 1 - II,n i .t.rnr. , r , h., - ; n . ;, .-.I r ;,,;;. r r rii n,.-, .. n....n......... r: I nrIh.h . 4 u.rl, , rIIT, C e,-, V I ,-U I| 1 . .. tirradl -r,.r\ r% .-. . .1, t,rr,1,t jr..? *...1 :..-nJ:rr T *n h, -L.rni. u l t*. in. ., . I h.- I 1 .ird rh1 J 1i'. , -- * t * C. iih n.j. r .- rIrrr,r, r.,- iJ . r . : .rk r n.:-r U th, I rni Th. ci r in ; - , lr.- I -, r r. ,I r .. I,r T. r, 1ii, ,Fr 1 .. 'rk it h,: *..rrrr,rur,. .. n 1 *,r,t r .....- ld IJ r,,,I k , r.l hIm ., ,r.il I .IriIdr.- I Iid L.. , .r. .lu,, LI V, 1_ I -.. d r,nd-_nr or hr- .hidri :'r,- -. *iu-.I. ,n * urthrr, E.,p h . .d rhi. I . l:.rrri.'r. *r.. ,l-,. hi m .. tit- ,rf - i n r lt. rh .... Irar, t *LIf.i rhIj -!l.Ci-.. L,nd rrt.rrrr TTr- i-rd Ior.-r ilnnr,l-'rr r.! tui,r,n Ir,.r..1 I 11r t iln - nd. . .hr.lr.r .r. Er.,nt...r .. ;Tin) trd tF J.-Ph in,ir 1,-in i r I l-, hib hIip.in p .. :z hod .. .Irr 1- .. II... .,r h -, - IFT ,rim!i r in.d ml - r.iL, rn I nd Th ,,I.,rrd I I,.i lb. I. ,r 1 r' ;.- .-. . r 1 n I ,n .J . 1: , rI. r - Ilk I ly- jr t J .. l. JI. .;r,n. rr I I I - .1) - Ir r I. r --rn bt., r I r-,, nl Ih . c .d i . nI r. b ir r,r :d .,rlr-r Lill ?I, . hr.ot-, .- :li n rr7,... I . -. C--iI.fln li'. 1,r, in C ir,: 7I r -l,rl . . irh ,rri- . Ir. ..1-. ni. rJn.i-i I.. i r.c.p. n- .n .1 n I... .i.ne. h, o r-n rL.r r - t ch,l- |:,Trd l;nJ- h hn,.-, , . .r- ill. ;.. J ..... r. l.. l r ir,Irl, r ...- ri . , l,,h - r..r .11 :r.. .1 I,r W niulr,lIr .r.- fnl, t l; hrl;: Iabct I,. * r i h, ..r.r.-. I I,t, 1,: . rI r. .- h .r L,niil d nr.r-! .d . 1, t.,r*l. -.: . 1 W.. ri-i,- -,...- V IrI r,L t -r L, rh,rr t;l;Indr 7- .r'. i ;. 1Dir, .urr. r;- i,.r 1.:7 h.uI . r1I .r-.... y-r . -5,n 1-.I i.,d A t I rf lrrn-r . rli r7,,nit-.1 ind Ir .i -r, . pi I ur * n.r-rt... .1 . -tr . - rr.r , lf'I -ri fl. h. - ri.nd Ik- ' , n.j Tl I l.rLid I i py-rc nr .1 rn,.I,.-. h -hi .1.n -t l, I 3 i.I. . i1;. II r , r Ii V . i .ri, rn- ,n , I.rt - income itself, but the changes it brings to people's in breastfeeding not offset by greater use of contralives, that lowers fertility. ceptives. The association of income and fertility varies In time, however, the effect of education in according to absolute levels of income. Below reducing fertility becomes increasingly clear. In all some minimum income, increases in income are countries, women who have completed primary associated with higher fertility (see Figure 6.2). In school have fewer children than women with no the poorest countries of Africa and South Asia, education, and everywhere the number of children many families are below that threshold. Above declines regularly (and usually substantially) as that threshold, further increases in income are associated with lower fertility-for a given increase in income, the reduction is greater for low-income groups. Raising the incomes of the rich (be it of Relation between fertility and income per person rich countries or of rich groups within countries) reduces fertility less than does raising the incomes of the poor. There is, however, no good evidence that the distribution of income has an independent Threshold effect on fertility; it is influential only to the extent that poor households usually have higher absolute incomes ~~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Increasing .- Declining incomes if their share of the total is higher. fertility ferinity Educating parents Fertility More education for women is one of the strongest factors in reducing fertility. It is true that, in poorer countries, women with a few years of primary At diminishing rate schooling have slightly higher fertility than do women with no education at all, especially in rural Income per person areas. Some education may be associated with a Source Birdsall,1980 lower rate of sterility, and it often leads to a decline 109
Page 1:
Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5:
Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7:
labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9:
8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11:
Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13:
Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15:
I I
Page 16 and 17:
countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19:
4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21:
example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23:
ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25:
etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27:
FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29:
14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31:
TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33:
export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35:
Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37:
TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39:
TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41:
Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43:
TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45:
of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47:
In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49:
3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51:
TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53:
TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55:
over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57:
TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59:
Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61:
nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63:
Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65:
developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67:
themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69:
fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71:
nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 124 and 125: the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139: few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147: 132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149: TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151: TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153: may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155: family planning and maternal and ch
Page 156 and 157: clients may develop can be promptly
Page 158 and 159: Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
Page 160 and 161: medical examination was not always
Page 162 and 163: measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165: Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
Page 166 and 167: costs per user. Public cost per use
Page 168 and 169: sanguine, however, as soon as one t
Page 170 and 171: TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173:
Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
Page 174 and 175:
FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
Page 176 and 177:
improving the availability of famil
Page 178 and 179:
Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
Page 180 and 181:
Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
Page 182 and 183:
FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
Page 184 and 185:
growth. Fertility has declined in t
Page 186 and 187:
Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
Page 188 and 189:
FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
Page 190 and 191:
able several types of condoms, pill
Page 192 and 193:
housing schemes to parents with onl
Page 194 and 195:
and training, data collection and a
Page 196 and 197:
9 Ten years of experience Much that
Page 198 and 199:
ecause few effective methods are of
Page 200 and 201:
Population data supplement The six
Page 202 and 203:
Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205:
190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207:
Table 1. Population projections Rat
Page 208 and 209:
Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211:
Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
Page 212 and 213:
Table 5. Status of women Number enr
Page 214 and 215:
Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 216 and 217:
Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 218 and 219:
Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221:
-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
Page 222 and 223:
I I
Page 224 and 225:
Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227:
Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229:
same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231:
Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233:
Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235:
Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237:
Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239:
Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241:
Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243:
Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245:
Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247:
Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249:
Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257:
Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259:
Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261:
Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263:
Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267:
Table 18. Official development assi
Page 268 and 269:
Table 19. Population growth and pro
Page 270 and 271:
Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273:
Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
Page 274 and 275:
Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
Page 276 and 277:
Table 23. Indicators related to lif
Page 278 and 279:
Table 24. Health-related indicators
Page 280 and 281:
Table 25. Education Number Number e
Page 282 and 283:
Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
Page 284 and 285:
Table 27. Central government curren
Page 286 and 287:
Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
Page 288 and 289:
Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293:
series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295:
Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297:
estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
show all

World Development Report 1984

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?