World Development Report 1984

cating them. The gap between the private and -for example, for health and education-has great
social costs of children narrows where income potential for affecting such decisions. Education
gains are widely shared, credit and labor markets and primary health care account for between a fifth
are working well, and people are receiving a fair (Malawi) and a third (Tunisia) of public budgets in
return to effort and skills. Income gains often coin- low-income and middle-income countries. Taxes
cide with an increase in opportunities for women similarly affect behavior through, for example, taxoutside
the home and for the poor, and associated free allowances for children and fees or subsidies
changes substitute for the benefits of having many on services that children use. The effects of taxes
children. and subsidies can differ depending on the situa-
But such changes come only gradually. Educa- tion. Tuition and book charges might discourage
tion, for example, cannot be transformed over- parents from sending children to school and so
night. Nationally, literacy rates today are strongly indirectly contribute to higher fertility. But once it
influenced by their level in the past; in house- is clear that education is valuable, such charges are
holds, children are more likely to attend school if likely to encourage people to have fewer children
their mothers did, regardless of family income in order to give them a better education.
level. Expanding opportunities for women relies in Some of the ways in which government can
part on educating women-but this occurs more influence family decisions are illustrated in Figure
slowly where parents see only limited opportuni- 6.1. The influence can be direct-government can
ties for their daughters. In rural areas, credit and make laws and issue proclamations, for example,
labor markets cannot be transformed overnight. that clarify social goals about marriage age and
All the more reason, therefore, to act now-espe- children's schooling. But government influence is
cially because some of these changes also take time likely to be stronger and more enduring when it is
to lower fertility. indirect; for example, through various entitlement
Other complementar policieand tax programs, government can affect the social
Other compalementary policies can have more
immediate effects. Promotion of later marriage and and economic environment, which in turn affects
longer breastfeeding can reduce the birth rate at
the same time it raises welfare. And the experience
the same timelopitnraises welarie. A the experienc t
of many developing countries shows that public
people's decisions about marriage, children, and
education. These indirect effects are so powerful
because fertility itself is but one of a set of interre-
hoshl .ae .eiin: aigcnuig
support for family planning programs, by narrow- working, raisin children, and sending them to
ing the gap between actual family size and what
couples wol wan if thycudmoeesl
cooules wouldcwantr iferthy quicould moere easily
sool. Main ohiesn,al sentgou to
school. Many of the signals sent out by govern-
ment affect fertility by altering the decisions about
choe,cng lerv fertilit qickly. Whr afoaml
planning services are widespread and affordable,
children's education, mother's work, and the rela-
fertility has declined more rapidly than social and tive attractiveness of spending now or saving for
one's old age. Figure 6.1 also shows that all these
ecnmies progress aloneia, would pRca,dict. Som- influences alter fertility through what demograeamplTs
ar l, CostaeRica, Indonsia Tai phers call the proximate determinants of fertilityldTico
Mexico.
s breastfeeding, age at marriage, contraceptive use,
and abortion.
By taxing and spending in ways that provide The complexity of these relationships is both a
couples wvith specific incentives and disincentives virtue and a drawback. It is a virtue because speto
limit their fertility, government policy can also cific government programs can have multiple
affect fertility in the short run. Government can effects that enhance their overall impact on family
offer "rewards" for women who defer pregnancy; behavior. This is clearly true of family planning
it can compensate people who undergo steriliza- programs and other development programs. Such
tion for loss of work and travel costs; and it can efforts work best in concert; they work only haltprovide
insurance and old-age security schemes ingly when they work alone. When various profor
parents who restrict the size of their families. grams all work together, they make possible the
Each of these public policies works through sig- steep declines in fertility achieved by countries
nals which influence individual and family deci- that have simultaneously benefited from rapid ecosions-when
to marry, whether to use contracep- nomic growth, improvements in education, rising
tion, how long to send children to school, and life expectancy, and expanding family planning
whether and how much family members work. programs. But the complexity is also a disadvan-
The level and pattern of government expenditure tage; no one program or policy is enough to reduce
107