World Development Report 1984

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6 Slowing population growth Experience has shown that as development pro- fertility declines of the 1960s, which were largely gresses fertility falls. Yet, because current rates of confined to the industrializing economies of Korea, population growth are so much greater in the Singapore, and Hong Kong. But fertility declines developing world than they were at comparable beginning in other developing countries in the late income levels in today's developed countries, 1960s, and spreading to more in the 1970s, have many developing countries cannot afford to wait been related to a different kind of development: for fertility to decline spontaneously. This message education, health, and the alleviation of poverty. is not without hope, however, because some Birth rate declines have been much more closely developing countries have already shown that fer- associated with adult literacy and life expectancy tility can be brought down significantly. This chap- than with GNP per capita. Despite high average ter examines the forces behind their success and incomes, rapid industrialization, and fast ecoconsiders the role of public policy in strengthening nomic growth, birth rates fell less in Brazil and such forces. Venezuela between 1965 and 1975 than in Sri It was once assumed that reducing fertility in Lanka, Thailand, and Turkey, where income gains developing countries would require a typical and social services have been more evenly sequence of economic advance: urbanization, distributed. industrialization, a shift from production in the This association is not surprising. When their household to factory production, and incomes ris- children have a better chance of surviving and of ing to levels enjoyed by today's developed coun- enjoying a wider range of opportunities, parents tries. This view seemed to be confirmed by the are willing to devote more money and time to edu- FIGURE 6.1 How government decisions influence family decisions Famil$ decisions l_ Govemment decisions j Socioeconormic O i.m. .r enviromnen.t 5 N,rr.tvr ,, ! rhjr,e. Polm, and-, TSending Lxprogr.rn1 11 . 1~~l z *:hddfrr. hdlfrn i, e^3-, .d I cU trT3rr.ae iSt 0 Educatlio,n o F3mLIs a.s, 3Inc, Ci Educabtinal D c oRr~e3fEdin: o Pnrnar. helth C C tIr 0 U;cr ,r Fei, l.. r c- .i,n-n 'rulu ri Famrd% planninr Iarer ianPi*es a Availability ot Oi Children 0 in,entEi es !or ~laatdI h servic*e§ -du, shc.n ard3 ':..rk ien:,'zrv ,ontrr1 0. .duC A .hon t:d 1,ar0mon) tvomnen's nhat status evcsPomt ci 01Id .at e v arl! . D Fjnanciaf and T .rk in-,e hp h.I. _ Proximate delerminanis of fertilih, i ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~labr-rniarke s~ 106 I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~c 5 .. rdrri., .se . ,, . Ln~~~~~ B1erlireedirns _ . O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~c C :.n rrcpi)D -. _ Fertility
cating them. The gap between the private and -for example, for health and education-has great social costs of children narrows where income potential for affecting such decisions. Education gains are widely shared, credit and labor markets and primary health care account for between a fifth are working well, and people are receiving a fair (Malawi) and a third (Tunisia) of public budgets in return to effort and skills. Income gains often coin- low-income and middle-income countries. Taxes cide with an increase in opportunities for women similarly affect behavior through, for example, taxoutside the home and for the poor, and associated free allowances for children and fees or subsidies changes substitute for the benefits of having many on services that children use. The effects of taxes children. and subsidies can differ depending on the situa- But such changes come only gradually. Educa- tion. Tuition and book charges might discourage tion, for example, cannot be transformed over- parents from sending children to school and so night. Nationally, literacy rates today are strongly indirectly contribute to higher fertility. But once it influenced by their level in the past; in house- is clear that education is valuable, such charges are holds, children are more likely to attend school if likely to encourage people to have fewer children their mothers did, regardless of family income in order to give them a better education. level. Expanding opportunities for women relies in Some of the ways in which government can part on educating women-but this occurs more influence family decisions are illustrated in Figure slowly where parents see only limited opportuni- 6.1. The influence can be direct-government can ties for their daughters. In rural areas, credit and make laws and issue proclamations, for example, labor markets cannot be transformed overnight. that clarify social goals about marriage age and All the more reason, therefore, to act now-espe- children's schooling. But government influence is cially because some of these changes also take time likely to be stronger and more enduring when it is to lower fertility. indirect; for example, through various entitlement Other complementar policieand tax programs, government can affect the social Other compalementary policies can have more immediate effects. Promotion of later marriage and and economic environment, which in turn affects longer breastfeeding can reduce the birth rate at the same time it raises welfare. And the experience the same timelopitnraises welarie. A the experienc t of many developing countries shows that public people's decisions about marriage, children, and education. These indirect effects are so powerful because fertility itself is but one of a set of interre- hoshl .ae .eiin: aigcnuig support for family planning programs, by narrow- working, raisin children, and sending them to ing the gap between actual family size and what couples wol wan if thycudmoeesl cooules wouldcwantr iferthy quicould moere easily sool. Main ohiesn,al sentgou to school. Many of the signals sent out by government affect fertility by altering the decisions about choe,cng lerv fertilit qickly. Whr afoaml planning services are widespread and affordable, children's education, mother's work, and the rela- fertility has declined more rapidly than social and tive attractiveness of spending now or saving for one's old age. Figure 6.1 also shows that all these ecnmies progress aloneia, would pRca,dict. Som- influences alter fertility through what demograeamplTs ar l, CostaeRica, Indonsia Tai phers call the proximate determinants of fertilityldTico Mexico. s breastfeeding, age at marriage, contraceptive use, and abortion. By taxing and spending in ways that provide The complexity of these relationships is both a couples wvith specific incentives and disincentives virtue and a drawback. It is a virtue because speto limit their fertility, government policy can also cific government programs can have multiple affect fertility in the short run. Government can effects that enhance their overall impact on family offer "rewards" for women who defer pregnancy; behavior. This is clearly true of family planning it can compensate people who undergo steriliza- programs and other development programs. Such tion for loss of work and travel costs; and it can efforts work best in concert; they work only haltprovide insurance and old-age security schemes ingly when they work alone. When various profor parents who restrict the size of their families. grams all work together, they make possible the Each of these public policies works through sig- steep declines in fertility achieved by countries nals which influence individual and family deci- that have simultaneously benefited from rapid ecosions-when to marry, whether to use contracep- nomic growth, improvements in education, rising tion, how long to send children to school, and life expectancy, and expanding family planning whether and how much family members work. programs. But the complexity is also a disadvan- The level and pattern of government expenditure tage; no one program or policy is enough to reduce 107
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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fertility in a changing world is a
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Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
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Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
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Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
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Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
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Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147: 132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149: TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151: TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
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Page 158 and 159: Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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Page 162 and 163: measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165: Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
Page 166 and 167: costs per user. Public cost per use
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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