World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
World Development Report 1984
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tion), and a larger share of manufactures in output large families, and because they benefit less from<br />
than low-income Africa. Low-income Asia occu- government spending on the programs they use<br />
pies an intermediate position on most indicators; most-health and education, for example-when<br />
in 1960 it had a nearly comparable level of human public services cannot keep pace with population<br />
skills and a higher share of manufactures in growth. At the societal level, as this chapter has<br />
exports than middle-income countries. The com- emphasized, it weakens macroeconomic perforparatively<br />
slow increase in exports of manufac- mance by making it more difficult to finance the<br />
tures from low-income Asia is as much attributable investments in education and infrastructure that<br />
to inward-oriented policies in the two largest coun- ensure sustained economic growth.<br />
tries (China and India), at least until recently, as to Population growth eventually slows as parents<br />
any lack of export capabilities. decide to have fewer children. The factors behind<br />
These simple correlations should not be carried parents' decisions, discussed in the next chapter,<br />
too far. Even among the successful exporters, then work their way through to benefit society as a<br />
some countries have fared better and others worse whole. But it does not follow that slower populathan<br />
their skill index in 1960 might suggest. Never- tion growth will be an immediate panacea for<br />
theless, these comparisons show that factors such developing countries. Declines in fertility, for<br />
as a literate and educated labor force, accumula- example, will cut the growth of the labor force only<br />
tion of physical capital, and economic diversity are after fifteen to twenty years.<br />
important for growth of manufactured exports. In the meantime, there are various nondemographic<br />
measures by which countries can ease<br />
Conclusions those development problems made more difficult<br />
by population growth. The adoption of trade and<br />
Population and development are intertwined in exchange rate policies that do not penalize labor<br />
many ways, not all of them fully understood. and the dismantling of institutional barriers to cre-<br />
Moreover, the effects of population growth may ating jobs would ease the employment problem.<br />
vary widely, depending on the institutional, eco- Pricing policies in agriculture and more resources<br />
nomic, cultural, and demographic setting. Slow allocated to rural credit, agricultural research and<br />
population growth itself requires new adjustments extension, and so forth, would increase agriculto<br />
support the growing burden of dependent tural output.<br />
elderly (see Box 5.7). The complexity of the subject In short, policies to reduce population growth<br />
makes it tempting to be agnostic about the conse- can make an important contribution to developquences<br />
of rapid population growth. Neverthe- ment (especially in the long run), but their benefiless,<br />
the evidence discussed above points over- cial effects will be greatly diminished if they are not<br />
whelmingly to the conclusion that population supported by the right macroeconomic and secgrowth<br />
at the rapid rates common in most of the toral policies. At the same time, failure to address<br />
developing world slows development. At the fam- the population problem will itself reduce the set of<br />
ily level, as Chapter 4 showed, high fertility can macroeconomic and sectoral policies that are possireduce<br />
the amount of time and money devoted to ble, and permanently foreclose some long-run<br />
each child's development. It makes it harder to development options.<br />
tackle poverty, because poor people tend to have<br />
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