World Development Report 1984

tion), and a larger share of manufactures in output large families, and because they benefit less from
than low-income Africa. Low-income Asia occu- government spending on the programs they use
pies an intermediate position on most indicators; most-health and education, for example-when
in 1960 it had a nearly comparable level of human public services cannot keep pace with population
skills and a higher share of manufactures in growth. At the societal level, as this chapter has
exports than middle-income countries. The com- emphasized, it weakens macroeconomic perforparatively
slow increase in exports of manufac- mance by making it more difficult to finance the
tures from low-income Asia is as much attributable investments in education and infrastructure that
to inward-oriented policies in the two largest coun- ensure sustained economic growth.
tries (China and India), at least until recently, as to Population growth eventually slows as parents
any lack of export capabilities. decide to have fewer children. The factors behind
These simple correlations should not be carried parents' decisions, discussed in the next chapter,
too far. Even among the successful exporters, then work their way through to benefit society as a
some countries have fared better and others worse whole. But it does not follow that slower populathan
their skill index in 1960 might suggest. Never- tion growth will be an immediate panacea for
theless, these comparisons show that factors such developing countries. Declines in fertility, for
as a literate and educated labor force, accumula- example, will cut the growth of the labor force only
tion of physical capital, and economic diversity are after fifteen to twenty years.
important for growth of manufactured exports. In the meantime, there are various nondemographic
measures by which countries can ease
Conclusions those development problems made more difficult
by population growth. The adoption of trade and
Population and development are intertwined in exchange rate policies that do not penalize labor
many ways, not all of them fully understood. and the dismantling of institutional barriers to cre-
Moreover, the effects of population growth may ating jobs would ease the employment problem.
vary widely, depending on the institutional, eco- Pricing policies in agriculture and more resources
nomic, cultural, and demographic setting. Slow allocated to rural credit, agricultural research and
population growth itself requires new adjustments extension, and so forth, would increase agriculto
support the growing burden of dependent tural output.
elderly (see Box 5.7). The complexity of the subject In short, policies to reduce population growth
makes it tempting to be agnostic about the conse- can make an important contribution to developquences
of rapid population growth. Neverthe- ment (especially in the long run), but their benefiless,
the evidence discussed above points over- cial effects will be greatly diminished if they are not
whelmingly to the conclusion that population supported by the right macroeconomic and secgrowth
at the rapid rates common in most of the toral policies. At the same time, failure to address
developing world slows development. At the fam- the population problem will itself reduce the set of
ily level, as Chapter 4 showed, high fertility can macroeconomic and sectoral policies that are possireduce
the amount of time and money devoted to ble, and permanently foreclose some long-run
each child's development. It makes it harder to development options.
tackle poverty, because poor people tend to have
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