World Development Report 1984

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Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility decline: supporting the elderly in China s'lI..i. Cr pi-iulillin gr.- Ih can hilp but the pirrlhn n ltl ri ti , Ti. .-r -ri t'urdtnn tre ill be crral dJ, F. .mg i:..Uirnic. rai-' I'. ig *- i.and.- . -wuld ' b, :1 per.:,: n I . ihen a :u-t t,h 1th* War.c -,h.rl- *,r the la-t te and ard- m.'re -.u l a r:,p.d :i p,i lratr..li.rln milliin p,,prl. Thze 1-tl cidcr .r e l . ii, b. E n-, -lnnir.,C I reo *1... S i..th d-. r-tt;rtr adiciu- dJpt ndnrw . *- unprl-td?nrcd * t ri in. t tr ilt lbi.r h,rtt Penr;-i: luni.lr r. meill-n-t zmp.rtnrIvl. pnre iding lit dei t. prh, e c. *ur-tr; ur.pd C htre hit Pro-.:. .. r lrh rrtirrm-n .n r rheot , .r. -e.urile , thc elderi. China * u-ltic.1a p.rItli' a.ld- i e and o".er rnanz- .. r h 'F'P' rtunlii I.: .. irt nlIrt and J,tti rraphi, tr,r call' 1r.-r a pT.pLii.r. rm abt trce'nl in I pan tI. lv p.re- rein.Eml Ir.e *ubztriSiial ri.i lntcrne ih.i .-I I t,ll.n b. ihk itar tii It'.tii1irir.; .:-r.l r...J in -JdII In jIi a nd I .- , ti . lun ..i' -ul re,i L in. tr. rheir r3 lr Ii3r th, trl lerill, r.-ite '7.. bel.- ' 1 r ptrt-,n i. tlt Llnil-d rMats -t eharil art :tar, ur,:cli it prr-cnl p..pul... n th, r r .li rhie ctntir'. and ih. mnill. Th, mu.-h !arc:r pri .p..rti...ni i i h.: pL.l.e.-. -.rnuc i.Je:d ri,t n.;, .- -11ij cuple' ha. e ni. ionf child Etlerl, I.i -.r be , ni... .- hat .itbet 1e . ., n.ct ,iri , u5i.lnfl- t srrttd- \I hlt are the I-:. .rimi(, mph . al. .1 dteai'nt in rhi number' .tf .un pe pie l ' len:iinr r ru' :tl- Ilk bdirti ull t... 1.- cr,no gIrriliit, veil reln. rrpla:emtrnt tri .ii r'err:,nt ir. I.>ilc,: t pcrcrnt ir rin3 at Chin.a . -t,ll reai.. hc,. 1 E.:1' ia,r.n4 IF. rm-minder ,r IIIr, -n l 2J it-ung a3dults t uld rP.,n ha.e ni-.ne I ee in. .i*: . l...p d .:..uinrr-- iir% Ihtr. .t uli t.: :.rot re!m'ni.n. t-3. Cr ill.hrtlrI- ri -upp.rl til I-r rh--: IIIl, n:,:..,; cr i rker r,. t- rr. jd. a.i at - but ihit atnm not dra-aiit.: Irtn n.i .. c chIld lanluIltt r- .n.. sIinza t* lime' erirr ri- an in hna c r. .'- rn,.- lilal , tcriilirr . rate rr i u .ed . an hIr., .upp..rl * h ir parn,ni ti, .r.urn.p- :! Fri ii .upp.ttJ n! h-,lI ar,;rn :.. tr.1 I, i - tj't, ccr. JiA.; and iiiiii rin re IjIair ... II..l:.,i ti- .id.:rI , rt pLr. r...n.t. r r. a , ,. . .rkc r ir. khina . . 1i hich .iid lF -. p.-pularic..n t. I 2 bil- ah,ur d uble th.'-t ... c:h,ldrer, and il hi...: i. Il il thilrtirE .1 pre ,tr.d ne. 1,01r in 2 l.iil ac.-irding t. % %.'rld Fiai;, precent tev. (Ch,nt^e :.rkers -ni. I.. ul rar phic gi'ai' arev - ilitl rI t. n niim 3 rr it-ch n' Ith- ech iia. popul.-lit n 15 p'nce Firtin t iF, lhbIr :ei a are c:.. er,d in de eiop:d ti.iin 1 tit leer, ar: p'.[.. -. ald decline nI:. ab,urt I -thirdJ. i hi 1 e n h ni,m '-r,t r;t .1r t- 1. rth. .: ,th putl ,flC.r,t.i- :r. l.A-aet' 14 Ic le ltil rh a 'iu. ii.i, The dLclines *¾ ocred ar.e n rural a*e. 4 ' ,rldL be rearcr ,n rhc-e regilni I' h-re urr:i .,mr mra3ne :-upFie haie 3air,ad, pled4td t.' Population p%lamids. China aid Lned Stale, IcfOand 205" i hia' no n.rt thin .fl eh,lJ rieee B.c 104 'a '-i * ins 'i'iiuld be allcledi i l ar' ,' ll ie- - 'c I i.e.h hal rn ire rap,d pmnelinn :r *tc.'ndart - r f- e'. '.lilr r -r..;k .'duc.i.in r Buin, thil InImz ru thc n i.: ri h,ne -1 - Fl rl-- t .irin F'pFit t 'f.luid be = _I I _ LL 1 *Zlttl tb .1 I1ir-;, ncr,a3i .n the pr,p-ir ril j , I t r.n tI the * -uminic ueldei. rleIlvlI i = _ J L F , gin i- rI. rtplacmenit let a ;rtr _- JI 2i thiile puipirili i nr n :1 prsons n th - ] . r, norlf l .- j.ld r l' p. . V iJd ia,-.i I1 II r.1d0 44 [ j the . l depenirnn... raII ralit . uld P . r... ' - [ .n..rel'. in IFh . n- etitur, Bat r It- 4 .! ziIrL,..li. 1j depe nidetic -.c.:ul d t n;irk- F | [ -di1 dmlterrnt-i. l the a3b.-r tir.rt *UF -1 - _ L Lp p.irr.ne ih t, p itnn aId ratht r than ___ i . the dtpen-d,nt ;une Inr.1 nil pnr-14 L L 9 *-rnr at tilt pliullt'X .. :4 ; o.:rktiic _ _ f L 3C I I teen 1.1 I tC Ilulr ilu t I and on I% 4 ! ;t lfrtr I b' ut 4; nl.illiCtS........: pt:oIlt i. .. . . . .. I L I . I I I I _f a:.d ri.t-i e ,nd -.r Ir, thit ear , 4 - i - 4 . J j 4 2n1l-,.il. h:r. i d . * ntttecn-ee..ar 'I. as- rt , l. r. .t ...- i..it., 11 -F'' , l.,, . . . r s. Is -pi-..iarn' .ige.. F. I Ih. : p r-iih pr. rI.. .. h i-r -r'"ii -.uin-... r, i .,. i-Au mg-age t.l-:p i- uI.i 'till b.- ri per..-nr
tion), and a larger share of manufactures in output large families, and because they benefit less from than low-income Africa. Low-income Asia occu- government spending on the programs they use pies an intermediate position on most indicators; most-health and education, for example-when in 1960 it had a nearly comparable level of human public services cannot keep pace with population skills and a higher share of manufactures in growth. At the societal level, as this chapter has exports than middle-income countries. The com- emphasized, it weakens macroeconomic perforparatively slow increase in exports of manufac- mance by making it more difficult to finance the tures from low-income Asia is as much attributable investments in education and infrastructure that to inward-oriented policies in the two largest coun- ensure sustained economic growth. tries (China and India), at least until recently, as to Population growth eventually slows as parents any lack of export capabilities. decide to have fewer children. The factors behind These simple correlations should not be carried parents' decisions, discussed in the next chapter, too far. Even among the successful exporters, then work their way through to benefit society as a some countries have fared better and others worse whole. But it does not follow that slower populathan their skill index in 1960 might suggest. Never- tion growth will be an immediate panacea for theless, these comparisons show that factors such developing countries. Declines in fertility, for as a literate and educated labor force, accumula- example, will cut the growth of the labor force only tion of physical capital, and economic diversity are after fifteen to twenty years. important for growth of manufactured exports. In the meantime, there are various nondemographic measures by which countries can ease Conclusions those development problems made more difficult by population growth. The adoption of trade and Population and development are intertwined in exchange rate policies that do not penalize labor many ways, not all of them fully understood. and the dismantling of institutional barriers to cre- Moreover, the effects of population growth may ating jobs would ease the employment problem. vary widely, depending on the institutional, eco- Pricing policies in agriculture and more resources nomic, cultural, and demographic setting. Slow allocated to rural credit, agricultural research and population growth itself requires new adjustments extension, and so forth, would increase agriculto support the growing burden of dependent tural output. elderly (see Box 5.7). The complexity of the subject In short, policies to reduce population growth makes it tempting to be agnostic about the conse- can make an important contribution to developquences of rapid population growth. Neverthe- ment (especially in the long run), but their benefiless, the evidence discussed above points over- cial effects will be greatly diminished if they are not whelmingly to the conclusion that population supported by the right macroeconomic and secgrowth at the rapid rates common in most of the toral policies. At the same time, failure to address developing world slows development. At the fam- the population problem will itself reduce the set of ily level, as Chapter 4 showed, high fertility can macroeconomic and sectoral policies that are possireduce the amount of time and money devoted to ble, and permanently foreclose some long-run each child's development. It makes it harder to development options. tackle poverty, because poor people tend to have 105
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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themselves and, by caring for young
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Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
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Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
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Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
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Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
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Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139: few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147: 132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149: TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151: TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153: may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155: family planning and maternal and ch
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Page 158 and 159: Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
Page 160 and 161: medical examination was not always
Page 162 and 163: measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165: Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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