World Development Report 1984

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emigration by providing information to potential form a large part of both temporary and permaemigrants and organizing recruitment on an offi- nent migration (see Box 5.6). cial basis. Many countries, including Bangladesh, Korea, and the Philippines are in fact doing this. International trade: growth and limits However, emigration is not totally costless. Temporary migrants and their families often suffer Trade offers more opportunities for reducing interlong periods of separation, although there is evi- national disparities and absorbing labor in develdence that women left behind efficiently manage oping countries than does international migration, the household and family assets, including agricul- but the effects of increased trade on labor absorptural land. Emigration has led to a rapid rate of tion have, until now, been limited to only a few mechanization in Yemen Arab Republic without a countries. significant increase in productivity, and neglect of Unlike international migration, world trade has infrastructure has led to a collapse of farm terraces. grown rapidly in the past three decades, at 6.7 per- In Oman underground water channels have dete- cent a year, compared with less than 4 percent a riorated. Emigrant countries may also lose when year in 1800-1913, and only 1.4 percent in 1913-50. skilled and professional workers emigrate; these Trade has provided developing countries with Box 5.6 The brain drain and taxation E... tl -rn l- n' ; I 1','- -lr It,. Ln II k Ih.- ,n.1,.d 3. ni,[la - pr:rcn r I *..I:ly ur. J by the loss of the money ., i!i.- .lr: ,rI. prIri i,.. Fri. .. j r n r...r... :it- n*'r. r.d rn-Ji - .1 their services. Emigration also . -jr.A r.: hr. . -. *rk.r Thre - .. 'ri;rinr '1w r he h J . I jr.- riln "internal diffusion"-skilled .. rrir r . r.--n-. ..- Ir r.-- .-l. . t. ..--. n il-i. ihnIipp, i-.l ..ri'i,- r.,rk-m.. p tu a-,. :i,. '. -.rd areas within .. ,lr, 'i.
extra jobs, directly in the export sector and indi- by inward-looking trade policies and price distorrectly as demand for inputs and services has tions. Ironically, employment has suffered as a increased. In Korea an estimated half a million jobs result: there is now ample evidence that industries in 1970 (about 60 percent of them in manufactur- geared to import substitution create fewer jobs ing) were attributed directly and indirectly to than do export industries. Evidence from Brazil, exports. For all developing countries, however, Indonesia, and Thailand, for example, shows that manufacturing exports have added few jobs in labor employed per unit of value added was twice relation to the increases in the size of the labor as high in export industries as in import-substitu- * force. Most of the increase in manufactured tion industries. In Korea in 1968 manufactured exports (and thus in total exports, since nonfuel exports were 33 percent more labor intensive than primary exports have grown less rapidly) has been domestic manufactures, and 50 percent more labor * in the (now) middle-income countries. Between intensive than import-competing industries. The 1965 and 1980 manufactured exports of all devel- unskilled labor component in export industries is oping countries increased by $128 billion, but also generally high-50 to 100 percent higher than middle-income oil-importing countries, with a in import-competing ones. population of 600 million (out of 3 billion in all The accumulation of human (and physical) capideveloping countries), accounted for 80 percent of tal necessary to expand export capability is, as that increase. Five countries-Brazil, Hong Kong, shown above, made more difficult if population is Korea, Singapore, and Yugoslavia, with 200 mil- growing rapidly. Even simple manufactures such lion people-accounted for 55 percent of the as textiles and clothing (the commodities that increase. Manufactured exports of low-income developing countries typically export to start with) countries, with a population of 2.2 billion in 1980, require skilled workers and versatile managers and increased by only $14 billion, and those of low- entrepreneurs who can keep up with changing income Africa by $0.5 billion (see Table 5.8). Total fashions and preferences. Modern textile plants exports of low-income countries also grew slowly, tend to use expensive equipment: fixed capital per reflecting (with a few exceptions such as India) employee in Indian firms using nonautomatic their dependence on primary exports, which grew power looms in 1963 was $1,600, more than seven at only 6.8 percent a year in volume. To the extent times the per capita income in that year. that export revenues determine imports, primary Table 5.8 gives some indication of the differences exporters have gained little, particularly in the face in human capital between low-income Africa, the of large increases in population. least successful exporter of manufactures, and middle-income oil importers, the most successful. EXPORTS AND EMPLOYMENT- Export success does In both groups the labor force has grown at about 2 not rely solely, or even necessarily, on a large labor percent a year. But in 1960 the (now) middleforce and low wages. Of greater importance are an income countries had, on average, a higher adult outward-looking trade policy and a relatively literacy rate, a higher index of human skills skilled labor force. As discussed in Chapters 2 and (defined as the secondary-school enrollment rate 3, exports of many countries have been inhibited plus five times the enrollment rate in higher educa- TABLE 5.8 Export structure and human capital Percenttage of mnanufactures ValueRoftmanu factu red exports Aduilt Index of Rath of Exports GDP (billions ofdollars) literacil rate humani skills' grtorforce Countriy group 1965 1980 1960 1981 1965 1980 1960 1980 1960 1979 (1960-81) Low-income Africa 9.8 9.3 6.2' 8.7k 0.2 0.7 15 39 2.4' 19.0 2.0 Low-income Asia 37.4 41.8 13.00 17.0' 1.9 15.4 36 53 30.0" 58.4' 1.8 Middle-income non-oil 23.0 51.6 22.0 25.0 4.3 108.9 58 72 38.0 109.0 2.2 Industrialized countries 69.6 73.5 30.0 25.0 86.9 902.3 96 99 144.0 274.0 1.3 a. Defined as the secondary school-enrollment rate plus five times the enrollment rate in higher education. b. Based on a limited sample. c. Secondary-school enrollment rate. d. Excludes China. 103
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
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Because the public sector in low-in
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developing-country creditworthiness
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Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
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Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
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Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
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Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
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Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
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Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147: 132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149: TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151: TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153: may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155: family planning and maternal and ch
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Page 158 and 159: Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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Page 162 and 163: measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165: Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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