World Development Report 1984

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from rural to urban areas mainly reflects the proc- source of innovation, but only if opportunities ess of industrialization and the changes it brings in exist to exploit their ideas. Studies in Guatemala, the demand for labor. Certain conditions in rural Papua New Guinea, Peru, and Tanzania, for examareas-unequal land distribution, landlessness, ple, have shown that returning migrants can introagricultural mechanization, natural calamities, duce new crops and techniques. Other studies and, in the past, forced labor migrations-have have found that experience gained in modern facstrongly influenced population movements in tories is largely irrelevant to the needs of small many countries. But, by and large, people move to villages. towns and cities for higher incomes and better job opportunities. Redistribution policies For individual families, these attractions can be considerable. Once in the city, perhaps three out of Governments have employed many different four migrants make economic gains. A move from approaches to the task of slowing down ruralthe rural Northeast of Brazil to Rio de Janeiro, for urban migration, ranging from direct controls on example, can roughly triple the income of an population mobility to efforts to improve economic unskilled worker; the family income of a manual conditions in the countryside. Few of these polilaborer in Sao Paulo is almost five times that of a cies have achieved their demographic objectives, farm laborer in the Northeast. The higher cost of and their social and financial costs have been high. urban living may narrow rural-urban wage differ- Moreover, they have often been undermined by entials in real terms, but urban dwellers also gen- national policies in agriculture, industry, and forerally have much better access to basic public eign trade. services. To take one example, in rural areas of Direct controls on mobility have been most comsub-Saharan Africa only about 10 percent of the mon in centrally planned economies. China, for population has access to a safe water supply, com- example, has employed controls since the early pared with 66 percent of the urban population. 1950s in an attempt to stabilize its urban popula- Most studies conclude that migrants are assets to tion. These controls have taken the form of travel the urban economy. They are mostly between the permits and food ration cards that can be used ages of fifteen and twenty-nine and are better edu- only in specified areas; also, restrictions have been cated and more motivated than those who stay placed on labor recruitment in rural areas by urban behind in the countryside. Evidence from Brazil, industrial enterprises. In some cases large num- Colombia, Kenya, Korea, India, and Malaysia bers of city dwellers have been exhorted to move shows that migrants with long urban residence to the countryside. The "rustication" program, for compare favorably with urban-born people in instance, resettled some 10 to 15 million urban secterms of employment and income. A World Bank ondary school graduates in rural areas between study of Bogota, Colombia, found that migrants 1969 and 1973. Administrative measures have earned more than nonmigrants at all educational probably helped to slow urban population growth: levels. Overall, income and employment levels are the proportion of the population in urban areas more a function of age, sex, and education than of has changed only slightly over the past thirty whether a person has migrated or not. years. But the costs were high to individuals, and Evidence about the impact on rural areas of emi- the economy also suffered from misallocations of gration is mixed. Emigration seldom causes a drop labor. in farm output. In villages of East Kalimantan, Less stringent controls have been used in Indo- Indonesia, for instance, women have adjusted to nesia and in the Philippines. Starting in 1970, the departure of male emigrants by working migrants to Jakarta had to comply with an array of harder at rice and vegetable production. Other bureaucratic requirements, including cash reactions include shifts to less labor intensive crop- deposits and licenses for various business activiping patterns, increased use of wage labor, and ties, however informal. To limit the growth of agricultural mechanization. Manila, the city government in 1963 decided to Urban-rural remittances clearly benefit rural charge migrants a sizable fee to enter the public households. Village studies in India, Malawi, and school system; free education was available only to Thailand, however, show that net remittances- bona fide residents. In both cases, the controls migrants receive as well as send money-usually proved hard to enforce, gave rise to petty corrupaccount for only a small proportion of rural tion, and failed to slow urban growth significantly. incomes. Returning migrants can be an important A variant of such controls has been periodic expul- 98
sions of unemployed migrants from cities, a prac- tion. But costs have been high (about $15,000 per tice that has been attempted in parts of Africa, family in the 1970s), and "second generation" notably the Congo, Niger, Tanzania, and Zaire. problems-increasing social differentiation in set- They too have had little visible impact. tlement areas, and renewed pressures on land as Population redistribution is commonly a major settler families increase in size-have begun to objective of land-settlement schemes. The transmi- appear. Although land settlement may have gration program in Indonesia, for example, aims to important political and social objectives, a review ease population pressures in rural Java-with only of World Bank-assisted schemes concluded that, in limited success, it seems (see Box 5.5). Similarly, economic terms, it is usually more efficient to Brazil's TransAmazon Program did little to further intensify production in already settled areas than the goal of reducing population growth in the to move people elsewhere. semiarid Northeast. Evidence suggests that the Governments have also tried to modify popula- Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) tion distribution by making small and mediumsettlement scheme in Malaysia has succeeded in size towns an attractive alternative to the major slowing down intrarural and rural-urban migra- cities. Evidence from India, Peru, Thailand, and Box 5.5 Indonesia's transmigration program in.;.rr.eqa * p pulatw f-s ;Iini.ited . 1x I rarvd .%u per.:Pent III th rural poipu I.a, aI * na.iwual p 'pulai ._.n inC h,3 , | 'r'U.l in In 2-is ur,.fi.nl'. di,tru'ute' 131.in, t rhv. oth,tr i-;I.,nd'. -l.,nd - rai vt p,pup la-. n ,r :.. Ih a3a .,-r jl noti 1l ind& -ci .rinz a 3iit I 4 Thes tig den;. graphi, and -i-nrnim:Ai 31k incr.atJd dit,hilu tkrm I p F:r. nl . mill-. r- quarv kiln.msirr din ter,nc:. cn,.mrig th. '.lai'ld t-l ind .nc \ar in l,J--l I. 2 pvrc:'ni J %3r in I.Lnd i3 .. a:-ufnli hr ibi '-ur - ,a hta. e pr-rnpt-d nar.% pr,:cr3m- tor 1'- I _;i th.r. .t i.i t ! .nl, - p r,i: -. 11n1- r.pulalr 1i thu 1jr .1 arc.. bur ia3a ha. nli nii1 rpI-.ple. rIn ai.a 1:. li1- .ther isljnd. ThL l-ui.:h hcgan 3 r-etlo-ir rn.r n .Our, I I.h, tran4nilgrl i'n pr.,.n131ra h*huld r.ut bt udtged s e-; V L-rn u- ibili'. i an a' ..rau ` .1 III p-11pIc per -ciuare r ki- pr.i;rarn in n"'l' nk lr,,n 15 limilk- ti .ai- p .pul.at,.r. pr,,urui-r Ir. la mrn-lr ihighu.r than Ra3ndAe'hi II lrTi- lr.r, .:nrri,i lix . II. Lam 1 ini prt.n :, n...l`ranm. ha% e b.erin drat.' rri I h. P_ai:d .,r.:., the dn-i s i-. t, i.2 rli -- ' i I r eun..unr.i B. Pl'12 *mr 27 iii i.iple pr p. m r4i gr.uF : ard r. nr. i.u13 rhe rno.t pl, p. Fiu .3uar liIin,.ir r Im c.r,nrrJs i r. .... ;hi I i0t' F'' 1 r %eari had tt'ii .U I..i udnr3bk ln,llr ,reds FsRtle.;O. Irgi .vrea3 '.'t th, .ilI'r - r..larrd i.I ,1,rA in. ed tlot .r' '132 ,nd Inrthe p tht ih . ,rT..jir c:zrried uil tV. th, t rl 'iLin- .ira Kalimn3ntan s.ulate-'. ar nd- rn-. bn .. h t c-amn krsi,,%n a' Trai.s- F..n; nlurid that tht,' ,.i:itlr5 %-*r. tbetiri.In 1 .1'._, ar r pupul1 r.rI n Zi ,iir, in 1`-I"'1 .l1,.%- I r 4a .t h., r .:'d t.,r .i...t ir . l ?`T.in-rniur.ti:n s,it- i h Li .1 ii.;- itrill. . k.nk ' l, I,s hi,ch rn mi ntUni B% I'-,-,' at-,ui ' 5 i i- Ig 'rn. rT h.. hal, b.r ' in, I-.- - . r all-, nlen nit a-.rh:ulIur .I. ,lh"ui p-FI.l taur I1 Fi l per ear h.d bteer a. 3. cr' p . i- .i.....r.t inc. mn,in lis im , appli.. in o ii r teilL..-r -0iiil il resrIrlid 11li sinre 'i.a Fp' .piiladliC.r. pland jir:- ha.i- hs-*Irai I-and, .ar,nitl, r - . .. --e ...ulii. un.:' Ih-i.. c's'.r lin., nr lii .n.' thu Cr.-, eri th rer... .ur'. .cd ir, munne; n.lnrel -nh.r i4i3 nd- h, C-.r ha% e 1 .:n nr.ill'. lIhe ir.wr-n'irriin pr. :ran, had nnl. J, diwp ndcnt .r. ra.nltrd il_griculturr .oni'. Fp,. r -r.-pi.:.i .. il C", - r rhi 'tyar-. nmuch ri-ir-n i F'* percsrii r.:p.5.rl p dd ,l d ..t mdrt -I - hI p. pulari gr.i'.rh in rural l.a I\I i th ih, F.r i i' -l -... r Plan i 1---4- t rLn s tn.- tn tirrl I. I. hJsa birn ai,.-rbt.d rhr- *,h ' ari.uinii;l rr. lrrnsniyra 'n r . r.rT, becarne I Itic I cn-I.sii . . rn i.r ri I.- ,ei in'luii.r -. l pr.-c- Throt.14h %'hi,h idrii . :,- ilurlhnr 3.rnb,ti''n' i.ir1.,i,-c 1ni.' C sr I,, me!il- 1n lad r. ii ii. iu ra-d b, -,ddiniL .- xpnd.i d Thr V ,-rld b3nr h- ;rLip I-n ian-ihh. Ir. -m ix.y :-.ei ; iu:-r.l- II- . a n.i But r -r. rih.- rIs c.pgr.,n -. i. i-, . .r..r Fd .. , i-. r ihi, IRmmirail, sulur, F" 'Pu 1 ar-n pr I-I 5 -urh ½ r,t .i r- -iribuedii n: ;'.1 .-:ail. I > h:.rn,lul l;n,sn j rrain.t- p i......... ar.r hir ii.- -r. .... srie ital * !.ernn;e .uI il- I'r'a . 1-'* '11 lansili r i n r nr,:r, ar ie.i-r r. nairmn Ihi. ihi.- Third Fuy. .l;r -u,h a. th., -. larin2 . nd .as ii,ai ci appi..inll :' 4 rs.irs pipli . i h lar .51- 4i .4 lii ,iiii laml a*-a an .1tet. hdluli.id-.. NIMr.- ih.in " m llh,.n 4 Ii ':ttJ 311.S alrei. heerr JQ'jr3d.sd t-.-n la- 'i ,i .sr, r lati -1'a .im' . - r ar *.:.'-s-i ;.,r ianvul . mst. r,! ~In_- . rt .4 i4 m . . n-in.t ren-. re rn .s' jnmd ar. irr.a p.ned up aind Lab r pr. du '1 It$ and rur.il sr, r n 1. , T'h, rn-.-r . 3 ni ha- al- I ih, h . ul. u .'r,!r.aI n-t hr mrczr.rm dnn, .-l- h.% .naed in, part, I1.h th -1arr ind and en: ',r..d .p.n..rn...r. s-n;.- . p.- ,n. ,,lirrrI nra-'.'...T....rr. p. . sr r-.-r-l. irai-micr3,nn Ianln n,ni.-, . nd ir ia31 u nderernpi I . rr .-n -limiti. J I 1i mtIr.hsm pe.pI.e .im c.- i l .Iriru t- r.n rcc.a'... a hl' pFrnIIrIi r--n Ir -. r. .disF.r-;d Ir. ari .,. I6, '. lli"h vi .. lran-mm.rri U , t"..- n rr. pF . i.-xn. rnnicni pr-.r.mi4 ni. I.si ria di 4- p-:r;. mi -r rur.l 1,.n arn.s-,cr- .-r. i rs ,n , r:m,.ar, *u ..:tu:ie.i .- it -rr'a3ui - t I-l F it can d.. i . alvkxiat eli. 1b. .l r. --s-Wr lin.: - p.is.i.r......ii c.'nr nililir- - ini, itI' iqu,, .ieni .'i .1 1-i.a,iT. r ' -ri . 99
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
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over time. The main focus of indust
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TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
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Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
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nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
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Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
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Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
Page 124 and 125: the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139: few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147: 132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149: TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151: TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153: may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155: family planning and maternal and ch
Page 156 and 157: clients may develop can be promptly
Page 158 and 159: Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
Page 160 and 161: medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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World Development Report 1984

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