World Development Report 1984

More documents

Recommendations

Info

acre increased from 15.4 million to 35.6 million and Easing constraints their average size fell from 0.27 to 0.14 acres. To take another example, the average land-man ratio Multiple cropping-more than one crop a year in Bangladesh is estimated to have declined from from the same piece of land-is a typical way for 0.40 acres in 1960-61 to 0.29 acres in 1979-80. More societies to cope with rising populations. In Asia, people have been absorbed into agriculture, but where the proportion of potential land under cultiincomes have risen little if at all. More people are vation was an estimated 78 percent in 1975, about 7 probably having to earn a living as landless labor- percent of the cultivated land is cropped more than ers. As their numbers have increased, their wages once. For some Asian countries the proportion is have tended to fall in relation to those who own (or much greater. In the late 1960s 52 percent of cultieven rent) land. The agricultural system has vated land was cropped more than once in Korea. adapted, but in ways that have probably increased In Bangladesh in the late 1970s, 43 percent of the income inequalities in the countryside. land was cropped more than once. Another constraint on the use of potential Multiple cropping increases production and uses agricultural land is shortage of water. In many more labor, so that the chief resource required to developing countries, any large expansion of agri- feed the growing populations of developing councultural production would require some form of tries is provided by the people themselves. Farm irrigation. <strong>World</strong>wide, the area under irrigation studies in Africa and Asia show that, on average, a expanded by almost 6 million hectares a year dur- 10 percent increase in farming intensity (defined as ing the 1960s. India has shown the most dramatic the percentage of time in the rotation cycle that is growth, with the irrigated area increasing from 28 devoted to cropping) involves a 3 to 4 percent million hectares to 55 million hectares over the past increase in the amount of labor per hectare. Labor two decades, an average of more than 1 million input per hectare increases because, under intenhectares a year. In the 1970s, however, worldwide sive farming systems, the extra hours required for expansion of irrigation slowed to just over 5 mil- land preparation, sowing, weeding, and plant prolion hectares a year. This slowdown occurred tection more than offset the reduction of hoursbecause some countries, such as Pakistan, started essentially for land clearing-associated with to run out of land that can be irrigated at an accept- shorter fallow periods. able cost. But the combined benefits of more employment Shortage of water in many parts of India, in the and more food do not come automatically. Without Nile Basin, in Brazil, and in most of the developing modern technical packages-including purchased countries is constraining irrigation development, inputs such as fertilizers and improved seeds-and and water transfer projects are being planned on effective price incentives, the amount of labor used an even bigger scale than those recently built in can increase faster than output. Less fertile land Pakistan. Countries are also putting more empha- may be brought under cultivation; good land may sis on groundwater development, on the com- be given less time to regain its fertility. Research bined use of ground and surface waters, on water into farming systems and increased use of agriculeconomy, and on more advanced methods of tural extension services can help ensure that new water management. Poor water management is farming methods are compatible with available considered by many specialists to be the most resources, including labor. But population presimportant single constraint to irrigated crop pro- sure is likely to continue. In parts of Africa, and in duction. Bilateral and multinational agencies are China, Bangladesh, and Java in Indonesia, populanow trying to arrest the decline in management tion pressure has already forced people to work standards, and an International Irrigation Manage- harder just to maintain income in traditional ment Institute has recently been established to agriculture. promote better use of water. The challenge will, In most developing countries, however, labor however, remain formidable, especially in some productivity has been maintained. To forestall countries of sub-Saharan Africa, where little or no diminishing returns to labor, intensification of land irrigation has been used in the past. This is particu- use has usually been accompanied by better farmlarly true for the Sahelian countries, where pro- ing methods, the use of fertilizers, investments in gress has been limited mainly because of high con- irrigation and drainage, and mechanization. Howstruction costs ($10,000 to $15,000 per hectare ever, such measures are possible only where raincompared with $2,000 to $5,000 in Asia), low fall is favorable-or where water is available for farmer response, and poor project management. irrigation-and where topography and soils do not 92
impose constraints that cannot be eased at accept- rural Bangladesh-one of the most crowded areas able costs. in the world-transport, marketing and storage Higher population density, by permitting econo- facilities, as well as extension services, are all mies of scale in the provision of infrastructure and inadequate. services, can sometimes help to induce improve- From one point of view, it is no small achievements in agriculture. In the United States, for ment to sustain an increase in population on the instance, rising population densities stimulated scale that has occurred, and continues to occur, in the development of the transport system during many developing countries. But keeping the prothe nineteenth century. An improved transport duction of food up with (or even ahead of) growth system, in turn, greatly facilitated the growth of in population is no guarantee that people have a agriculture by lowering transport costs and by rais- healthy diet. Where incomes are low and uneing the farmgate prices of agricultural products. qually distributed, and increases in food produc- But the potential benefits to be gained from higher tion are just barely ahead of increases in populapopulation densities are not always realized. In tion size, poor people may not be able to afford the FIGURE 5.3 Foodgrains and population in India, 1950-83 Population (millions) 700 Average annual 600 growth rate 2.1pre_ 500 400 300 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Production of foodgrains (nillions of tons) 130 Pr, 110 110 average annual ,k ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 2.7 pe rate of, rc ~~growth e n 90 i 70 50 - s 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Production of foodgrains (kg. per capita) 0.20 0.10 / .. Al~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Years shown are end years for the agricultural season. Data for 1983-84 are estimates. Sources: <strong>World</strong> Bank data; adapted from Cassen, 1978. 93
Page 1:
Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 4 and 5:
Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
Page 6 and 7:
labor markets. And they have a vest
Page 8 and 9:
8 The policy agenda 155 Population
Page 10 and 11:
Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 12 and 13:
Glossary Demographic terms informat
Page 14 and 15:
I I
Page 16 and 17:
countries regain their momentum of
Page 18 and 19:
4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
Page 20 and 21:
example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
Page 22 and 23:
ment-all the more so if human skill
Page 24 and 25:
etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
Page 26 and 27:
FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
Page 28 and 29:
14 Distribution of product among se
Page 30 and 31:
TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
Page 32 and 33:
export restraints and orderly marke
Page 34 and 35:
Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
Page 36 and 37:
TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
Page 38 and 39:
TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
Page 40 and 41:
Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
Page 42 and 43:
TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
Page 44 and 45:
of rapid and painful adjustment for
Page 46 and 47:
In many countries internal adjustme
Page 48 and 49:
3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
Page 50 and 51:
TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
Page 52 and 53:
TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55:
over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
Page 68 and 69: fertility in a changing world is a
Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 104 and 105: saving because they come from the c
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
Page 124 and 125: the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139: few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147: 132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149: TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151: TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153: may be delaying a first pregnancy,
Page 154 and 155: family planning and maternal and ch
Page 156 and 157:
clients may develop can be promptly
Page 158 and 159:
Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
Page 160 and 161:
medical examination was not always
Page 162 and 163:
measuring social acceptability, or
Page 164 and 165:
Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
Page 166 and 167:
costs per user. Public cost per use
Page 168 and 169:
sanguine, however, as soon as one t
Page 170 and 171:
TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
Page 172 and 173:
Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
Page 174 and 175:
FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
Page 176 and 177:
improving the availability of famil
Page 178 and 179:
Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
Page 180 and 181:
Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
Page 182 and 183:
FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
Page 184 and 185:
growth. Fertility has declined in t
Page 186 and 187:
Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
Page 188 and 189:
FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
Page 190 and 191:
able several types of condoms, pill
Page 192 and 193:
housing schemes to parents with onl
Page 194 and 195:
and training, data collection and a
Page 196 and 197:
9 Ten years of experience Much that
Page 198 and 199:
ecause few effective methods are of
Page 200 and 201:
Population data supplement The six
Page 202 and 203:
Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
Page 204 and 205:
190 Births and total fertility =Ice
Page 206 and 207:
Table 1. Population projections Rat
Page 208 and 209:
Table 2. Population composition Low
Page 210 and 211:
Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
Page 212 and 213:
Table 5. Status of women Number enr
Page 214 and 215:
Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
Page 216 and 217:
Bibliographical note This Report ha
Page 218 and 219:
Background papers Note: Source refe
Page 220 and 221:
-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
Page 222 and 223:
I I
Page 224 and 225:
Table 10. Structure of merchandise
Page 226 and 227:
Key In each table, economies are li
Page 228 and 229:
same order is used in all tables. T
Page 230 and 231:
Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
Page 232 and 233:
Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
Page 234 and 235:
Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
Page 236 and 237:
Table 3. Structure of production GD
Page 238 and 239:
Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
Page 240 and 241:
Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
Page 242 and 243:
Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
Page 244 and 245:
Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
Page 246 and 247:
Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
Page 248 and 249:
Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Table 12. Origin and destination of
Page 256 and 257:
Table 13. Origin and destination of
Page 258 and 259:
Table 14. Balance of payments and r
Page 260 and 261:
Table 15. Flow of public and public
Page 262 and 263:
Table 16. External public debt and
Page 264 and 265:
Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
Page 266 and 267:
Table 18. Official development assi
Page 268 and 269:
Table 19. Population growth and pro
Page 270 and 271:
Table 20. Demographic and fertility
Page 272 and 273:
Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
Page 274 and 275:
Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
Page 276 and 277:
Table 23. Indicators related to lif
Page 278 and 279:
Table 24. Health-related indicators
Page 280 and 281:
Table 25. Education Number Number e
Page 282 and 283:
Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
Page 284 and 285:
Table 27. Central government curren
Page 286 and 287:
Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
Page 288 and 289:
Technical notes This edition of the
Page 290 and 291:
difficulties in assigning subsisten
Page 292 and 293:
series in national currencies are a
Page 294 and 295:
Public loans are external obligatio
Page 296 and 297:
estimates, the total fertility rate
Page 298 and 299:
expenditure and current revenue sho
Page 300:
Bibliography of data sources Nation
show all

World Development Report 1984

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?