World Development Report 1984

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saving because they come from the capital-rich Constraints on agricultural production industrial world. But efficiency is even harder to achieve when population growth is rapid. For Food production in developing countries has example, social and political pressure to employ increased rapidly in recent decades but has still young people has undoubtedly contributed to the just kept pace with population growth (see Table large government sector in many developing coun- 5.6); in the 1970s it failed to do so in many lowtries, and in some countries to regulations income countries, including Bangladesh, Nepal, designed to stop private employers from reducing and twenty-seven of thirty-nine countries in subtheir work force. Selective government concern for Saharan Africa. Other African countries-includeducated young people in urban areas has led to ing Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, and Upper Voltapolicies such as Egypt's that guarantee employ- managed only a slight increase in per capita food ment to all university graduates. As well as being production. The output of food in China and India inefficient, this policy hurts people who are not has also exceeded population growth since the educated because scarce public spending is mid-1960s, but by only a narrow margin. In the past, increases in food production were mainly due to bringing more land under cultivation: this is still the case in sub-Saharan Africa and TABLE 5.6 in parts of Latin America. About 25 percent of the Growth rates of food output by region, 1960-80 world's land-some 3.4 billion hectares-is (average annual percentage change) thought to be of agricultural potential. Of this, Total Per capita only about 1.4 billion hectares (40 percent) is being Region or Percapita cultivated, so there is little evidence of a global country group 1960-70 1970-80 1960-70 1970-80 land shortage (see Box 5.3). Developing countries 2.9 2.8 0.4 0.4 For developing countries as a whole, however, Low-income 2.6 2.2 0.2 -0.3 increased acreage accounted for less than one-fifth Middle-income 3.2 3.3 0.7 0.9 of the growth in agricultural production over the Africa 2.6 1.6 0.1 -1.1 past two decades. In part this is because land recla- Middle East 2.6 2.9 0.1 0.2 mation is often more costly than intensifying use Latin America 3.6 3.3 0.1 0.6 of existing land; in part it is because further expan- Southeast Asiaa 2.8 3.8 0.3 1.4 sion of the land frontier is constrained in many South Asia 2.6 2.2 0.1 0.0 parts of the world. In sub-Saharan Africa, for Southern example, the development of vast areas is pre- Europe 3.2 3.5 1.8 1.9 cluded because of such diseases as river blindness Industrial market economies 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.1 (onchocerciasis) and sleeping sickness (trypanoso- Nonmarket industrial miasis). The latter renders livestock production economies 3.2 1.7 2.2 0.9 virtually impossible on some 10 million square <strong>World</strong> 2.7 2.3 0.8 0.5 kilometers of higher rainfall areas, 45 percent of all Note: Production data are weighted by world export unit prices. the land in sub-Saharan Africa. Major campaigns Growth rates for decades are based on midpoints of five-year averages except that 1970 is the average for 1969-71. have been undertaken to free parts of the Sudaa. Excludes China. nese savanna country from sleeping sickness, but Sources: FAO; <strong>World</strong> Bank, 1982b. it has not always been possible to prevent a resur- gence of the disease. Moreover, insecticides used to control tsetse flies, which spread sleeping sickness, have had undesirable effects on the environdiverted for the benefit of those who are relatively ment. For that and other reasons, some countries well off. Youth unemployment may also contribute in Africa are reaching the limits of their land (see to crime and instability and the resulting large Box 8.4 in Chapter 8). amount of service employment as police and pri- In Asia, too, further expansion of agricultural vate guards in some cities of developing countries. land does not appear to be an option for several None of these, of course, adds to national income. countries. For example, in India between 1953-54 Crime is tied primarily to poverty and social disor- and 1971-72, a 66 percent increase in the number der, but tends to increase wherever there are large of rural households was accompanied by only a 2 cohorts of young people who are unemployed percent increase in the cultivated area. As a result, (including in developed countries). the number of marginal holdings of less than one 90
Box 5.3 Food supplies for agrowing worid population Th- t.itid cri;i- Cii 1072-74 cr.Kied an iden in the d,.ct.iping ciuntrie- par- n cilirnal priduttw n but bec.,U5C it atflii epher..- it inipirndirg di - nJ 31 titularlt be-au-c a-t Ccini-inuc.j rapid. hi;hv2r r. od prwi'r I. hzch thi ciencit rt ne;"d intrtr-et in \lalthosin pic o- grii.-;h ini pipuLttion rind mn,nic- Cr-,n- atticrd ir beczu4e It inadequjate ar-arr.e~- nirtrm Mort recent %iv~ poitnt ro the trailk plann,,.d ecoinomie, ma% aso.I twn- men;- i. r markic'ing ta~d PT.1;i dio; tI,ll ;uCc-:-, c-i teichno 'kgic:al h.n in ariz- tinue to hate .r5~i 'Fritali Pritduiiicn In rnpr .-.e tink v hE r tineir *nea e - 1rlurt, and iti- he connLIutiin that the th, indu'trial tiorid i- prot,iectx ti rise nlirmic -t it, dcc-, t-irlda-na vh-ic N c3pa1:Ie ti producin, aletnlieettI hantninhe pa~-t %hile ~ ,mt re'i-ardi i-n ;hr gibkal tood --itua- -nough ti'iod tor tuture g-:neratioin~ ,eit the grit', th in its demand is projected to tnor ha' loi--ked -,'rl bet nd the cnd -it - inn the ne' t ci'ntur\. rhr main i54ut I, level .Olt thie ceniur% [SLr iard Cilland to; ,sarni- no-i th,_ i-r irtdide at ail 0 bti;s o'i liod On a national anid ho usehltId ha- is the pi.: teirnrair th-~ matiniLiun gli hdl 'tlt- but the capakrt itt nation; grtiups outl..1,k is etn mocre 'aid -N number pa tt ) . rP;oii)rnilIh,.n itin~ griin- iiitin n.m"in- and ind iduals ti. *.bur. 'it indu4trial countries di' ni it pri 'ductu -quit aleni Iiti A, . ear Thi; tigur. it tnt ujgh rt -od ii;ra health, diet cmn'ugh grain or tcu'd I' satiisi d4 inei,tc i-btaine'10 k Mulitphittn a reai, i ln mist ciuntri..- pairtic:ulciri;t li.. dtnnand But their national t,.-.d se-Aictri,% ii u' M tc e htaI, tr.n; -i -mit - orc; Kb 'tapit ic-.d ic crrcil , Ci i' a-ured ,..m, -iia, ttw i.aiue ot their nn.m the prtc;inn .tt3cra ot _' toee pi:r hiechirt -iiatgri thee -iiiour.i tir about halt t....Ii icx.-rt'i, i~uu-u ciii more than adc_ tbs i 5- billion hectaric -cdi:.-. ing ii; a i-t rural t-,.d rniiiun-ipti.n in de'%l-ping; quate iio tinance ;i'id lmprri, These 4Iigbt in:rra~,r .-tr r ht -imit'.it'd 1 4 bit- -ii'ntri,- lit-; the pa-I thirtt -ir, oiiintrir-s at.. ha,.tr ettecti, erthod4 ne it ion heci ire- '.t 1and iarrt. il, is ;; i.ohat grain priidu-.t;iin has doubt~d distributitng ;ioid. iho'ugh their piiri rdprorductin- An idditonal tt tit' m.d acii-.rding it- the FA') reptiri 1 ;fliii- F'itpk maI bt- uiier ilt [tir rmn tf nr %a' added i.;r r ingtLnan and mn ire I It ' I-, :IIL "I) cJiutd U tible again bi 'he din eliping iiluntrit' the -it uatn is priductsiln rr.:-t ntIs era,s ci m hbe ti-ar 2iA3i 'n Nnirican ~tud. 1ir. 1I. '-i ure F:itnai, M bt'he F tCO -.ug- ti,r. oi plan; tn 5rgtz ti; aiil purpi;-z4- Iii11Oiiia :1l r1f it7.t ii tin flu r(in..:oiitl ag re- gtst thatin in: iictar iliui1.l trtnit%-rnin tiid --ed ~nd ainimraliedrnc ,i.ith ' ahl i-?esn men; - dicuhtintz Cit dnc.%-lI -ping c ninire' rnt-t br- unabir- to trom 3iiiciri;prpe,ilper da% in iii rid grain priduoctio'n oiier i-.e nit teed them-iel. e- trom their s.-.n land ,.auth Asia t.. FB1liii calorie- In ii n,rh ear- ineiunt~ it ~ii k'an annintit gr-n. th aitih input; ii ltertdlizer x LEtl-J anti t. Anic r,ai \tstratia Nc%. Zealand mnd rate .It cit'ut 3 pericini i,n at InI intermeudiate let el it tte.hn,ii. Fm Inc.:i iin-anuop;iiri ~.t rneat ral;v- On [he demnand side t-rlmr [oIsc. 0 'gt ia ba,mct package .it terrjhmzer;.. c-iin:um pt i. n iii ptaot n,rnen. becau,iŽ lcon indicated that drmand in .ert-1; mm[rinpro d cd arid irnrple C nt.-r% ;itiini th.: ci'nti-r- iin -it i,at-n to' nn ai thri.ugh aind griin' tir b.-ith human tone2uniption nie-asiure-; Mans, i-I h;hc si- untries- ar- ti--ding ~tl -tIck intitii,ni ti-ni- ,intlvi-to-,~i~ teed ii. i.utd teev ai bet'- -tn irn -Atnicci.- ,here te hnottt-gt i pri'hbitb partil .,ith d;t-act c i:-ncanptiton .i tgrtnIt iii and 3 1 perct-ni d itar, de-pti-nding i-n bhciii il-i inte-rnirdiate ii- ci I lii 1c d-d,.tc cmtset sa - .is-timpiiiri tcir pi-pulatiinm and lnc''me [Si- itS 41 Outside Atrica the~ group ior% %tcragt dait pt-r cap;;; alit'.' ance grsor,;h P.ire rtttni pri -iv-tion - ~uig-~ - incluti- .\fghani;;an Bangladesh. 1-t It `4 in i attires -It ptan;r -sner, a Cr ninth-tnt. ii. ih iit gloal i tltr md Sa' idcrHaiti and licrdan iliniplting 5 ink~m5 at i.nsuniptioni ian-i I-ar ic anipts the 1nitr rrIiaiinat t hr-at tnrc-igdti,ti rd tiirittiU 'nud-tht eeahi -i-.c patit~ Cotuncil ; ~cc.:nt Lon. -Ten-i Lldiit iluiiii4 .~ no,t the iir.I; -niutiiin Nfim'. dvetettp- it. upport -ibcut billion [r.opie Thie put- ,tibai c:-rti1 dt-nannti up 5- ps~rcrni inz .iunititz i-.iih a chr-ni- ti-d dlrhci; [[Ut huh"l i. Ill prb.kl:..I he i:ai licd II- .s 21il tIiC -luInalt nt 1-ia ricOt aboiui 2 ha.l -A he r ,pipur -. the- main tnt hng ihc- ii.d -. Id ti h~ ce~ entuts [itecteni a tar3 repiirt puHi- hed bt th.Ž- iii nmra4-si ec t[itrt, it in-minti t gu--d, ~-' On , sit per CUF-iti alil-itt du .It i-u iii 11 t'~ Oepartmeiit o t A-c7riciuItute taint tii a~ to tuna,nie,- t',od imnpout Fur the-t i-ii ir- i plant ..nriirg -the: -urre:ni siniolar cii, luitIOns Pith cit iThe-c a-~e- - ciuntriv. -a ih tran Siti r,Icii delicii ; a oirid at ra4t -the * arih %,.,.u,d be cip i- nit-ru:m. inclu1ded pritta-tioni ot rcnthat LL'ntbiriatii'n iit mnirt, ti\pirt- arid E,.t-ti, bt~ it suppirlitucib lb't It 4 bdhlin p,rr iiiuld hii ted i' annimate AItt ',rid l 5 ,n[, arran4.:mintnis; ti i~ itning tuicd wai b.- -i n, fit nunmh,, nI ri ugh Fit -ta i - Ldt piiiit-a ira.gtiiinl- the- 3n~tter Fir s. -ni, cta-ntr- in Aticva rht procie.ted i-. i rid siati mrart iiua ,Jr-min ii'r grail; iii ab-ut 2 i' pcrct ri a oi ieni a iticd crlil; ,ill riaqiirt ettrrnat lion tCulti.ai,-d lirid Ci oLld ble incr. ae 1 tair rid-ti, itnancr t-ici imporit ir. iF. 'hirt niirt- and land--a-. rIng uihigc at [hi- .-tirtnimeni tir il-it glihal -liua;ii in run ind i- et r-And in. ;inre,nt in d~ : nce- -specuall.-dn o in,, in i.net-c -tandsu In ~harp tciitras;t ttu ihe-a'-~ ping lugrun pctcntiai tii to-.d ind rngine-ting -uld tran-ttirni th, -ut- ment, 1-In grIup; Cit ciorntr`c-' mdi%i dual nntidprtiidu,tiiin . alloviiing; iiir better dirt' i;a c:iuntrie. anti lieu -,hi d, karti-u;eui iu lltinmalel% ii is r. i c-untrit blat irndi- p. pualiti..tn !ri ii- ,BLut there ar- ~14. 'e~ -u ;-a hge t ths- gap tirt. cnn dint-- - ecida.id, u.;, hi utte r l ram a. sh.iriagr Cit di n,d i,i it- ile , trcp iat- -ii i tic: uppl. anti den-and te pri 1--ied io ii-d -nit Vi;cau- -. ict lua.u cliiiin ini en--n and .-lunate ichInpin
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public
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Oxford University Press NEW YORK OX
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labor markets. And they have a vest
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8 The policy agenda 155 Population
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Boxes 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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Glossary Demographic terms informat
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I I
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countries regain their momentum of
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4 Box 1.1 The arithmetic of populat
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example. Between 1955 and 1980 inco
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ment-all the more so if human skill
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etween 1 and 2 percent-moderate com
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FIGURE 2.1 directions-with a lag in
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14 Distribution of product among se
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TABLE 2.2 Rates of growth in the re
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export restraints and orderly marke
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Box 2.2 Comparisons between the 193
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TABLE 2.6 indebtedness is denominat
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TABLE 2.7 Change in export prices a
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Burundi, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, and
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TABLE 2.9 Exports from developing c
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of rapid and painful adjustment for
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In many countries internal adjustme
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3 Prospects for sustained growth Wi
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TABLE 3.2 Growth of GDP per capita,
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TABLE 3.4 Current account balance a
Page 54 and 55: over time. The main focus of indust
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 3.6 Growth of trade in develo
Page 58 and 59: Box 3.3 Delinking from the world ec
Page 60 and 61: nal surplus. The resulting rise in
Page 62 and 63: Because the public sector in low-in
Page 64 and 65: developing-country creditworthiness
Page 66 and 67: themselves and, by caring for young
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Page 70 and 71: nize contraceptive services. As wil
Page 72 and 73: Economic transformation: Europe, Ja
Page 74 and 75: scious control of family size, prob
Page 76 and 77: Box 4.3 The European fertility tran
Page 78 and 79: FIGURE 4.2 Birth and death rates an
Page 80 and 81: Box 4.4 Alternative measures of fer
Page 82 and 83: largest city in 1950, will not even
Page 84 and 85: FIGURE 4.4 Fertility in relation to
Page 86 and 87: government goal is a nationwide rat
Page 88 and 89: North America's population in 2000
Page 90 and 91: IBox 4.6 Three views of population
Page 92 and 93: TABLE 4.6 Population size and densi
Page 94 and 95: Box 5.1 Consequences of population
Page 96 and 97: implied by a simple division of tot
Page 98 and 99: and on farms. But the evidence on e
Page 100 and 101: get in GDP. Alternatively, all or p
Page 102 and 103: youths, who are presumably able to
Page 106 and 107: acre increased from 15.4 million to
Page 108 and 109: food they need. Although the amount
Page 110 and 111: is so scarce, they can do so only o
Page 112 and 113: from rural to urban areas mainly re
Page 114 and 115: other developing countries suggests
Page 116 and 117: emigration by providing information
Page 118 and 119: Box 5.7 Coping with rapid fertility
Page 120 and 121: 6 Slowing population growth Experie
Page 122 and 123: feTtility; nor is it easy to judge
Page 124 and 125: the education of mothers increases
Page 126 and 127: etter education and health services
Page 128 and 129: TABLE 6.1 Total fertility rates and
Page 130 and 131: effectiveness of existing laws, ins
Page 132 and 133: in the 1950s and 1960s, fertility w
Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 6.6 Fertility dedine within
Page 136 and 137: Box 6.3 Mleasuring the value of chi
Page 138 and 139: few births; to encourage spacing, T
Page 140 and 141: Box 6.4 A deferred incentive scheme
Page 142 and 143: Box"7.1 Family planning for health
Page 144 and 145: FIGURE 71 88 in Romania (1979). Res
Page 146 and 147: 132 Box 7.2 Birth planning technolo
Page 148 and 149: TABLE 7.2 Percentage of married wom
Page 150 and 151: TABLE 7.3 Discontinuation of contra
Page 152 and 153: may be delaying a first pregnancy,
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family planning and maternal and ch
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clients may develop can be promptly
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Box 7.6 The impact of service quali
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medical examination was not always
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measuring social acceptability, or
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Box 7.7 Military versus social expe
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costs per user. Public cost per use
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sanguine, however, as soon as one t
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TABLE 8.1 Population policy indicat
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Box 8.2 China's census: counting a
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FAMILY PLANNING. In many countries-
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improving the availability of famil
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Box 8.4 Africa: how much land, how
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Box 8.5 Infertility: a challenge to
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FIGURE 8.2 upper Egypt want no more
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growth. Fertility has declined in t
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Box 8.7 Changing policies and attit
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FIGURE 8.6 childbearing age have un
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able several types of condoms, pill
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housing schemes to parents with onl
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and training, data collection and a
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9 Ten years of experience Much that
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ecause few effective methods are of
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Population data supplement The six
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Table 4. Factors influencing fertil
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190 Births and total fertility =Ice
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Table 1. Population projections Rat
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Table 2. Population composition Low
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Table 3. Contraceptive use and unme
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Table 5. Status of women Number enr
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Table 6. Family planning policy _ _
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Bibliographical note This Report ha
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Background papers Note: Source refe
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-1984. "The Malthusian Case: Preind
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I I
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Table 10. Structure of merchandise
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Key In each table, economies are li
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same order is used in all tables. T
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Population I~~~~ - * S: ~ -- ' X -
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Table 1. Basic indicators GNP per c
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Table 2. Growthi of production Aver
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Table 3. Structure of production GD
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Table 4. Growth of consumption-and
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Tadble 5. Structure of demand Distr
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Table 6. Agriculture and food Value
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Table 7. Industr Distribution of ma
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Table 8. Commercial energy Energy c
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Table 9. Growthi of merchandise tra
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Table 12. Origin and destination of
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Table 13. Origin and destination of
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Table 14. Balance of payments and r
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Table 15. Flow of public and public
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Table 16. External public debt and
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Table 17. Terms of public borrowing
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Table 18. Official development assi
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Table 19. Population growth and pro
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Table 20. Demographic and fertility
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Table 21. Labor force Percentage of
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Table 22. Urbanization Urban popula
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Table 23. Indicators related to lif
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Table 24. Health-related indicators
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Table 25. Education Number Number e
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Table 26. Central goverrnment expen
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Table 27. Central government curren
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Table 28. In-come distribution Perc
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Technical notes This edition of the
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difficulties in assigning subsisten
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series in national currencies are a
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Public loans are external obligatio
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estimates, the total fertility rate
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expenditure and current revenue sho
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Bibliography of data sources Nation
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