World Development Report 1984

get in GDP. Alternatively, all or part of the savings capital widening. For most countries the same is
could be used to increase spending per pupil or to true of jobs. In contrast to school-age populations,
increase the enrollment rate in Malawi's secondary whose rate of growth starts to slow five or six years
schools which in 1980 stood at only 4 percent. The after a decline in fertility, the growth of workingreturns
to using the resources saved on account of age populations is more or less fixed for fifteen to
lower population growth for improving school twenty years. People born in 1980-84 will be enterquality
are likely to be higher than the returns to ing the labor force in 2000 and will still be there
forced rapid expansion of the system if population almost halfway through the twenty-first century.
growth does not slow. But improving quality will High-fertility countries face large increases in
be difficult until a larger share of the population their labor forces. As an example, Nigeria's high
has access to basic education, which itself is fertility in the 1970s guarantees that its workingdelayed
if the numbers of school-age children are age population will double by the end of this cenconstantly
increasing. tury. Kenya can expect an even larger increase.
The potential for cutting educational costs Where fertility has fallen in the past two decades,
through lower fertility is obviously largest for the increases will be smaller (see Figure 5.1). China
those countries with the highest fertility rates. will experience a rise of no more than 45 percent.
Four African countries-Burundi, Ethiopia, Korea's working-age population has already fallen
Malawi, Zimbabwe-could save between 50 and 60 substantially and will change little between now
percent of their educational spending by 2015 (see and the year 2000. In all these countries the actual
Table 5.3), whereas a rapid fertility decline would labor force-people who are working or looking for
reduce educational costs by only 5 percent in jobs-will grow even faster if, for example, more
Colombia, by 1 percent in Korea, and by even less women start looking for paid employment.
in China, where there is virtually no difference In countries with growing labor forces, the stock
between the rapid and standard fertility assump- of capital (both human and physical) must contintions.
But these lower-fertility countries have ually increase just to maintain capital per worker
already gained considerably from slower popula- and current productivity. Unless this happens,
tion growth. For example, if Korea's fertility rate each worker will produce less using the reduced
had remained at its 1960 level, the number of pri- land and capital each has to work with. Productivmary
school-age children in 1980 would have been ity, and thus incomes, will then stagnate or even
about one-third (2 million) larger than it was. fall. Wages will fall in relation to profits and rents,
Applying actual 1980 costs per student ($300) to and thus increase income inequalities-another
that difference gives a saving in a single year of example of how rapid population growth harms
$600 million, about 1 percent of Korea's GDP. the poor.
For incomes to rise, investment needs to grow
GROWTH OF LABOR FORCE AND CAPITAL WIDENING. faster than the labor force, to ensure capital deep-
Keeping up with schooling needs is only one way ening. Capital deepening involves a growing
whereby rapid population growth contributes to demand for spending on education, health, roads,
energy, farm machinery, ports, factories, and so
forth. These requirements have to be traded off
TABLE 5.3 against extra consumption. Of course, if educa-
Potential savings in primary-school costs under tional levels are rising quickly, rapid restocking of
rapid fertility decline, selected countries, 2000 the labor force with young, better-educated people
and 2015 can be an advantage. But, as shown above, it is
also difficult to increase educational spending per
Cost savings child if population growth is rapid.
Totalfertility (percent) Even when developing countries manage to
Country rate (1 98 1) 2000 2015 raise investment in line with the growth in their
Korea, Rep. of 3.0 12 1 labor force, the contrasts with developed countries
Colombia 3.7 23 5 are striking. The gap in educational quality has
Egypt 4.8 27 23 already been described. Investment in physical
Burundi 6.5 26 56 al been decied. Ivstment in ic
Ethiopia 6.5 25 60 capital per new worker is also much larger in
Kenya 8.0 22 50 industrial countries because their labor-force
Zimbabwe 8.0 19 48 growth is slower and their GDP per capita is so
a. Compared with standard fertility assumption. much higher. Even a middle-income country such
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