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SESSION 6: FUTURE CHALLENGE FOR EUROPE AND WORLWIDE
Climate change impacts on mycotoxins in cereal grain
production
H. J. van der Fels-Klerx, M. de Nijs
RIKILT Wageningen UR, PO Box 230, NL-6700AE Wageningen, The Netherlands
E-mail: ine.vanderfels@wur.nl
Emerging mycotoxins in cereal grains include newly detected mycotoxins, as well
as known mycotoxins with no or low presence in certain commodities or
geographical areas that (suddenly) re-occur at high concentrations. A risk for
changes in presence of mycotoxins is the quick shift of origin of raw cereal
materials or the (re-)introduction of cereals in production areas. Major diving
forces, however, are believed to be (projected) climate changes. Quantitative
estimates on impacts of climate change on mycotoxin occurrence in cereals are,
however, scarce.
The EMTOX project aimed to assess the impact of climate change effects on the
presence of mycotoxins in cereal grains in North West Europe in 2040, using a
quantitative approach. Climate model data for the period 2031-2050, based on the
IPCC A1B emission scenario, were used as the starting point. Empirical models
were developed for wheat phenology and for prediction of DON concentrations in
wheat (Olesen et al. Food Add. & Cont. 2012, van der Fels-Klerx et al. J. Food
Protec. 2012). While climate change data were input for both models, the output
of the wheat phenology model was, in addition, used in the DON prediction
model.
Outcome of the modelling study showed that – in general - climate change will
result into increased DON contaminations in wheat in North West Europe in 2040.
The predicted increase was higher for spring wheat than for winter wheat. Results
showed high variation between regions (van der Fels-Klerx et al. Food Add. &
Cont. 2012a,b).
Given the study results, industrial and governmental food safety managers should
be aware of the risks of mycotoxins in raw materials. Levels of mycotoxins need
to be closely monitored, in particular in high risk situations associated with
favourable climatic conditions for fungal infections and mycotoxin production. The
use of predictive models will be helpful in this respect.
Keywords: emerging mycotoxins, climate change, modelling, deoxynivalenol
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