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SESSION 5: DISEASE CONTROL AND FORECASTING MODELS
Mycotoxins risk assessment in cereals and corn, from
monitoring to predictive models
A. Froment, A. Nussbaumer, T. Varraillon
SYNGENTA 1 avenue des Prés 78286 Guyancourt France
E-mail: alain.froment@syngenta.com
Several species of Fusarium can produce mycotoxins during the growing period
of the crops. At harvest, these toxins may be detected and sometimes at high
level in cereals and corn grain depending of the year. EU Food Safety Regulation
has fixed thresholds on these mycotoxins concerning all the grain food process.
Since 2000, Syngenta has organised a large monitoring of more than 26 000
plots. Agronomic and climatic data and grain samples have been collected for
mycotoxins analysis in France. To minimize the risk, Syngenta has developed
Good Agriculture Practices recommendation (variety tolerance, crop residue
management …). Over the years, the database has been used to assess and
define models to predict the mycotoxins risk before harvesting. Predictions are
based on different agro-climatic statistical models. Yearly monitoring improve their
accuracy.
Qualimetre® was the first service in France to forecast the grain mycotoxins level
for soft wheat in 2004, durum wheat in 2005 and corn in 2006. After calculation
which integrates local agronomic practices and extended wheather information,
the grain collectors receive reports with quantification of mycotoxins levels by
agronomic practices according to area of collect and for each plot the probability
to be under the grain regulation threshold. The forecast is available one month
before harvesting for deoxynivalenol in soft and durum wheat and for
deoxynivalenol, zearalenone and fumonisins in corn.
These models are now widely used by grain collectors to operate with the
mycotoxins risk, food safety and regulation. About sixty grain collectors used
Qualimetre® in 2012 surveying 4.5 million hectares in France and Italy. Since
2009, a new model to forecast T2-HT2 risk is under development on spring
barley.
Keywords: mycotoxins, predictive model, food safety, regulation
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