EFS12- Book of abstracts - Contact
EFS12- Book of abstracts - Contact
EFS12- Book of abstracts - Contact
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SESSION 5: DISEASE CONTROL AND FORECASTING MODELS<br />
Forecasting <strong>of</strong> Fusarium Head Blight and<br />
Deoxynivalenol in Wheat with FusaProg to support<br />
Growers and Industry<br />
H. R. Forrer 1 , T. Musa 1 , A. Hecker 1 , F. Mascher 2 , S. Vogelgsang 1<br />
1 Research Station Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon ART, Reckenholzstrasse 191, CH-8046 Zürich;<br />
2 Agroscope Changins-Wädenswil ACW, Route de Duillier 50, CH-1260 Nyon 1, Switzerland<br />
E-mail: hans-rudolf.forrer@art.admin.ch<br />
Derived from the determination <strong>of</strong> fusaria and deoxynivalenol (DON) in 300 wheat<br />
samples from 2001-2003 <strong>of</strong> the Swiss canton Aargau and the analysis <strong>of</strong> the<br />
effect <strong>of</strong> the corresponding cropping and weather data, we designed in the<br />
Fusarium graminearum (FG) and DON forecasting system www.fusaprog.ch<br />
(Musa et al. 2007, OEPP/EPPO Bulletin, 37,2,283-289). FusaProg is based upon<br />
a division <strong>of</strong> the cropping system into four groups, namely wheat grown with or<br />
without maize as previous crop as well as plough or conservation tillage. Mean<br />
values for the incidence <strong>of</strong> FG and the DON-content <strong>of</strong> the wheat samples <strong>of</strong> the<br />
four groups were used as starting values to calculate plot specific and regional FG<br />
and DON risks. In addition other factors as the wheat cultivar and, most important,<br />
the actual weather and growth stage <strong>of</strong> wheat are considered. FusaProg was<br />
validated with another set <strong>of</strong> Swiss data and optimised with findings <strong>of</strong> FHB onfarm<br />
experiments (Vogelgsang et al. 2011, Mycotoxin Research 27:81-96). The<br />
validation <strong>of</strong> FusaProg with 82 Swiss samples from 2004-2008 showed that 82%<br />
<strong>of</strong> the plot specific forecasts <strong>of</strong> DON-contaminations above or below a threshold<br />
<strong>of</strong> 0.5 ppm were correct. A corresponding analysis <strong>of</strong> a Bavarian dataset with 547<br />
samples from 1993 to 2000 resulted in 73% correct appreciations. However, using<br />
1 ppm as threshold, originally used to develop the FusaProg forecast, the ratio <strong>of</strong><br />
correct estimates increased up to 87%. Regional maps <strong>of</strong> FusaProg displaying<br />
the FG infection risk during anthesis and the DON contamination risk until harvest<br />
were used successfully to support the industry from 2007 to 2012 by the transfer<br />
<strong>of</strong> wheat. Actually we try to optimise the reliability <strong>of</strong> FusaProg using a new FG<br />
infection risk model developed with data from FG spore catches from 2008 to<br />
2010. First results are promising and will be presented.<br />
Keywords: Fusarium, mycotoxin, forecast, sporetrap<br />
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