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SESSION 5: DISEASE CONTROL AND FORECASTING MODELS
Forecasting of Fusarium Head Blight and
Deoxynivalenol in Wheat with FusaProg to support
Growers and Industry
H. R. Forrer 1 , T. Musa 1 , A. Hecker 1 , F. Mascher 2 , S. Vogelgsang 1
1 Research Station Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon ART, Reckenholzstrasse 191, CH-8046 Zürich;
2 Agroscope Changins-Wädenswil ACW, Route de Duillier 50, CH-1260 Nyon 1, Switzerland
E-mail: hans-rudolf.forrer@art.admin.ch
Derived from the determination of fusaria and deoxynivalenol (DON) in 300 wheat
samples from 2001-2003 of the Swiss canton Aargau and the analysis of the
effect of the corresponding cropping and weather data, we designed in the
Fusarium graminearum (FG) and DON forecasting system www.fusaprog.ch
(Musa et al. 2007, OEPP/EPPO Bulletin, 37,2,283-289). FusaProg is based upon
a division of the cropping system into four groups, namely wheat grown with or
without maize as previous crop as well as plough or conservation tillage. Mean
values for the incidence of FG and the DON-content of the wheat samples of the
four groups were used as starting values to calculate plot specific and regional FG
and DON risks. In addition other factors as the wheat cultivar and, most important,
the actual weather and growth stage of wheat are considered. FusaProg was
validated with another set of Swiss data and optimised with findings of FHB onfarm
experiments (Vogelgsang et al. 2011, Mycotoxin Research 27:81-96). The
validation of FusaProg with 82 Swiss samples from 2004-2008 showed that 82%
of the plot specific forecasts of DON-contaminations above or below a threshold
of 0.5 ppm were correct. A corresponding analysis of a Bavarian dataset with 547
samples from 1993 to 2000 resulted in 73% correct appreciations. However, using
1 ppm as threshold, originally used to develop the FusaProg forecast, the ratio of
correct estimates increased up to 87%. Regional maps of FusaProg displaying
the FG infection risk during anthesis and the DON contamination risk until harvest
were used successfully to support the industry from 2007 to 2012 by the transfer
of wheat. Actually we try to optimise the reliability of FusaProg using a new FG
infection risk model developed with data from FG spore catches from 2008 to
2010. First results are promising and will be presented.
Keywords: Fusarium, mycotoxin, forecast, sporetrap
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