EFS12- Book of abstracts - Contact
EFS12- Book of abstracts - Contact
EFS12- Book of abstracts - Contact
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SESSION 5: DISEASE CONTROL AND FORECASTING MODELS<br />
P119 - Predicting Deoxynivalenol in Oats under<br />
Northern European Conditions<br />
T. Börjesson 1 , O. Elen 2 , C. G. Pettersson 1 , T. Persson 2 , H. Eckersten 3<br />
1 Lantmännen, P.O. Box 30192 SE-104 25 Stockholm, Sweden; 2 Bi<strong>of</strong>orsk, Norwegian Institute for<br />
Agricultural and Environmental Research, Norway; 3 Swedish University <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Sciences, SE-<br />
750 07 Uppsala, Sweden.<br />
E-mail: thomas.borjesson@lantmannen.com<br />
Contamination <strong>of</strong> Deoxynivalenol (DON), produced by fungi within the genus<br />
Fusarium, is an increasing problem in the production <strong>of</strong> oats in Norway and<br />
Sweden. This crop is susceptible to Fusarium-infection especially during the<br />
flowering stage. The goal <strong>of</strong> this study is to adapt and test a dynamic model,<br />
which, given an inoculum source, calculates the risk <strong>of</strong> DON contamination in oats<br />
as a function <strong>of</strong> planting date and the prevailing weather conditions. This model<br />
could be used, alone, or in combination with statistical models. The model,<br />
including the calculation <strong>of</strong> DON risk indices, is adapted to oats from previous<br />
prediction models <strong>of</strong> Fusarium infections and DON contamination in wheat (Rossi<br />
et al., 2003, Bulletin OEPP/EPPO 33, 421-425; Del Ponte et al., 2005,<br />
Fitopatologia Brasileira 30, 634-642). Field experiments with four oat cultivars (cv<br />
Axeli, Belinda, Ivory and Kerstin) are carried out at four locations in south-eastern<br />
Norway and western Sweden during the period 2012-2014. The appearance <strong>of</strong><br />
panicles over time and the flowering progression within single panicles are<br />
assessed. Daily data <strong>of</strong> air temperature, precipitation and relative air humidity, are<br />
obtained from weather stations near the field experiments. DON is analyzed in<br />
samples taken at grain maturity using ELISA (Ridascreen, Rhone.Biopharm,<br />
Darmstadt, Germany). Crucial model parameters for the flowering progress <strong>of</strong><br />
oats, and thus also for the susceptible tissue that is available for an infection at a<br />
given time, are calibrated against the experimental data. In addition, different<br />
functions to describe the direct impact <strong>of</strong> weather factors on an infection are<br />
evaluated against experimental and weather data. Subsequently, we apply<br />
different methods to evaluate the model against DON samples collected from<br />
farmers’ fields together with field and management data. Results, so far, indicate<br />
that this model could be a useful tool to predict DON in oats in Scandinavia.<br />
Keywords: DON, flowering, simulation model, weather impact<br />
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