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SESSION 5: DISEASE CONTROL AND FORECASTING MODELS
P118 - Evaluation of Predictive Models for Wheat
Fusarium Head Blight under Growing Conditions of
Quebec, Canada
M.-E. Giroux 1 , A. Vanasse 1 , G. Bourgeois 2 , Y. Dion 3 , S. Rioux 4 , D. Pageau 5 , S.
Zoghlami 6 , C. Parent 7 , E. Vachon 8
1 Département de phytologie, Université Laval, Québec, QC, G1V 0A6; 2 Agriculture et Agroalimentaire
Canada, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, QC, J3B 3E6; 3 Centre de recherche sur les grains inc. (CÉROM),
Saint-Mathieu-de-Beloeil, QC, J3G 0E2; 4 Centre de recherche sur les grains inc. (CÉROM), Complexe
Scientifique, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8; 5 Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada, Normandin, QC,
Canada, G8M 4K3; 6 Fédération des producteurs de cultures commerciales du Québec, Longueuil,
QC, J4H 4G4; 7 MAPAQ, 200 chemin Ste-Foy, 10ème étage, Québec, QC, G1R 4X6; 8 Moulins de
Soulanges, 485 rue St-Philippe, Saint-Polycarpe, QC, J0P 1X0
E-mail: anne.vanasse@fsaa.ulaval.ca
Fusarium head blight is a fungal disease of cereals and maize causing economic
losses to farmers each year. To manage the risks associated with this disease,
many countries have developed predictive models. For instance, they have been
implemented in Ontario (Canada), in the United States, in Argentina, and in Italy,
but none of them have been made in Quebec (Canada). This work aims to
determine which model produces the most accurate predictions of disease
infection and/or mycotoxins content in the weather conditions occurring in
Quebec. Spring wheat was grown during two seasons and winter wheat during
one season at four experimental sites located in the three different cereal
production zones of Quebec. The selected models for evaluation produce
predictions of deoxynivalenol (DON) content (Canada, Italy), disease incidence
(Argentina, Italy infection) and probability of epidemic (United States). Data from
plots without fungicide (52 samplings) was used to test the models listed above.
Then, the reliability of the selected models was evaluated with receiver operating
characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Deoxynivalenol (DON) content was used to
assess an epidemic or non epidemic situation for each sampling of the data set.
Models from the United States and Argentina were more reliable than the others
when the thresholds recommended in the literature were adjusted. Pairwise
comparisons showed that there was no difference between the areas under the
ROC curves (AUCs) of the American and Argentinean models. The reliability of
the different models will be validated with data from fifty commercial fields.
Therefore, the American and the Argentinean models are a good starting point for
a model adapted to wheat production in Quebec.
Keywords: disease forecasting, fusarium head blight, deoxynivalenol, wheat
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