Logical Decisions - Classweb
Logical Decisions - Classweb Logical Decisions - Classweb
Suppose you have a feeling that there is some interaction between the members of the Performance goal. Specifically, you want it all -- both high power and good fuel economy. In other words, if a truck does poorly on “Power” or “Fuel Economy,” you feel it should have a low “Performance” utility no matter how well the truck does on the other measure. In addition, you prefer a truck that does moderately well on both measures to a truck that does very well on one measure and poorly on the other. This is called "destructive interaction." To quantify this idea you must answer another preference assessment question: 1. Select the Assess::Weights option. 2. LDW will display the assess weights dialog box. 3. Click the “Interactions” tab. 4. Select the "Performance" goal from the “Goal” combo box. The several ways to define interactions are listed in the “Interactions Assessment Method” combo box. Of these methods, the most easily understood is the probability method. 5. Select the probability method for defining interactions from the combo box. 6. Click the "Assess" button to begin the assessment process. Normally, LDW would ask you to select an existing tradeoff in the performance goal to use as a basis for the probability question. However, in this example, there is only one tradeoff to select (the one between Power and Fuel Economy). After you select the tradeoff, LDW displays the screen shown in Figure 5-5. The alternatives in the question are both made up of two possibilities, each of which occurs with 50 percent probability. It may be difficult to visualize a situation where such alternatives would occur. For our example you might think of the alternatives as a special deal offered by two truck manufacturers to get you to 5-16 Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial
commit to buying their truck before the engine specifications have been finalized. Please enter P so that A and B are equally preferred: Alternative A 50 percent chance of Power = 175 and Fuel Economy = 16 and 50 percent chance of Power = 109 and Fuel Economy = 23 Alternative B P = 50 percent chance of Power = 175 and Fuel Economy = 23 and 100 - P percent chance of Power = 109 and Fuel Economy = 16 Figure 5-5. Question for assessing the interaction between Power and Fuel Economy using the probability method. Let's look more closely at the two alternatives. Alternative A is the "hedge your bet" option. You will get the most preferred level on either Power or Fuel Economy, but not both. Alternative B is the "all or nothing" alternative. You will get the most preferred level on both measures with probability P or the least preferred level on both measures with probability (1-P). The discussion above about the interactions between Power and Fuel Economy gives us a clue about how to answer the question. Since we are looking for both Fuel Economy and Power and since for alternative A, one of these measures is guaranteed to have its least preferred level, neither of the possibilities in alternative A may look very attractive. On the other hand, although alternative B has a 50 percent chance (as a default) of having the least preferred level on both measures, it also has a 50 percent chance of getting the most preferred level on both measures. Since the most preferred part of alternative B is the only one of the four possibilities that looks attractive, you will pick alternative B when P = 50 percent. The question on the screen is asking you to choose a particular probability for B that makes alternatives A and B equally preferred. In the probability assessment method, Ps less than 50 Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial 5-17
- Page 25 and 26: weights of the measures. All of the
- Page 27: S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
- Page 30 and 31: Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
- Page 32 and 33: Now lets make sure the alternatives
- Page 34 and 35: Assume you have decided that you wi
- Page 36 and 37: Next we will enter the measures for
- Page 38 and 39: Defining Preferences The alternativ
- Page 40 and 41: 1. Select the Assess::Common Units
- Page 42 and 43: almost equally unacceptable, while
- Page 44 and 45: 1. Select the Assess::Common Units
- Page 46 and 47: When you do this, the tradeoff grap
- Page 48 and 49: 1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
- Page 50 and 51: 8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
- Page 52 and 53: Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
- Page 54 and 55: Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
- Page 56 and 57: Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
- Page 58 and 59: You can see the completed introduct
- Page 61 and 62: Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
- Page 63 and 64: Probabilities There is a problem wi
- Page 65 and 66: This information indicates that the
- Page 67 and 68: A uniform distribution is defined b
- Page 69 and 70: On the left is a list of the possib
- Page 71 and 72: Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
- Page 73 and 74: screen a large database for the alt
- Page 75: 9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
- Page 79 and 80: see that the rankings for all the a
- Page 81: S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
- Page 84 and 85: The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
- Page 86 and 87: ! Summary -- view a dialog box that
- Page 88 and 89: structure like an organization char
- Page 90 and 91: If you check the Show Assessment St
- Page 92 and 93: saves it for later pasting. When yo
- Page 94 and 95: You can create a new Matrix view by
- Page 96 and 97: The quick entry view shows the alte
- Page 98 and 99: Structuring Goals The goals in an L
- Page 100 and 101: these two fields to describe each m
- Page 102 and 103: the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
- Page 104 and 105: ! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
- Page 106 and 107: Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
- Page 108 and 109: Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
- Page 110 and 111: pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
- Page 112 and 113: Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
- Page 114 and 115: Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
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- Page 120 and 121: measure utility functions for the g
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Suppose you have a feeling that there is some interaction between<br />
the members of the Performance goal. Specifically, you want it all<br />
-- both high power and good fuel economy. In other words, if a<br />
truck does poorly on “Power” or “Fuel Economy,” you feel it<br />
should have a low “Performance” utility no matter how well the<br />
truck does on the other measure.<br />
In addition, you prefer a truck that does moderately well on both<br />
measures to a truck that does very well on one measure and<br />
poorly on the other. This is called "destructive interaction."<br />
To quantify this idea you must answer another preference<br />
assessment question:<br />
1. Select the Assess::Weights option.<br />
2. LDW will display the assess weights dialog box.<br />
3. Click the “Interactions” tab.<br />
4. Select the "Performance" goal from the “Goal” combo<br />
box.<br />
The several ways to define interactions are listed in the<br />
“Interactions Assessment Method” combo box. Of these methods,<br />
the most easily understood is the probability method.<br />
5. Select the probability method for defining interactions<br />
from the combo box.<br />
6. Click the "Assess" button to begin the assessment<br />
process.<br />
Normally, LDW would ask you to select an existing tradeoff in the<br />
performance goal to use as a basis for the probability question.<br />
However, in this example, there is only one tradeoff to select (the<br />
one between Power and Fuel Economy). After you select the<br />
tradeoff, LDW displays the screen shown in Figure 5-5.<br />
The alternatives in the question are both made up of two<br />
possibilities, each of which occurs with 50 percent probability. It<br />
may be difficult to visualize a situation where such alternatives<br />
would occur. For our example you might think of the alternatives<br />
as a special deal offered by two truck manufacturers to get you to<br />
5-16 Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial