Logical Decisions - Classweb

Logical Decisions - Classweb Logical Decisions - Classweb

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Suppose you have a feeling that there is some interaction between the members of the Performance goal. Specifically, you want it all -- both high power and good fuel economy. In other words, if a truck does poorly on “Power” or “Fuel Economy,” you feel it should have a low “Performance” utility no matter how well the truck does on the other measure. In addition, you prefer a truck that does moderately well on both measures to a truck that does very well on one measure and poorly on the other. This is called "destructive interaction." To quantify this idea you must answer another preference assessment question: 1. Select the Assess::Weights option. 2. LDW will display the assess weights dialog box. 3. Click the “Interactions” tab. 4. Select the "Performance" goal from the “Goal” combo box. The several ways to define interactions are listed in the “Interactions Assessment Method” combo box. Of these methods, the most easily understood is the probability method. 5. Select the probability method for defining interactions from the combo box. 6. Click the "Assess" button to begin the assessment process. Normally, LDW would ask you to select an existing tradeoff in the performance goal to use as a basis for the probability question. However, in this example, there is only one tradeoff to select (the one between Power and Fuel Economy). After you select the tradeoff, LDW displays the screen shown in Figure 5-5. The alternatives in the question are both made up of two possibilities, each of which occurs with 50 percent probability. It may be difficult to visualize a situation where such alternatives would occur. For our example you might think of the alternatives as a special deal offered by two truck manufacturers to get you to 5-16 Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial

commit to buying their truck before the engine specifications have been finalized. Please enter P so that A and B are equally preferred: Alternative A 50 percent chance of Power = 175 and Fuel Economy = 16 and 50 percent chance of Power = 109 and Fuel Economy = 23 Alternative B P = 50 percent chance of Power = 175 and Fuel Economy = 23 and 100 - P percent chance of Power = 109 and Fuel Economy = 16 Figure 5-5. Question for assessing the interaction between Power and Fuel Economy using the probability method. Let's look more closely at the two alternatives. Alternative A is the "hedge your bet" option. You will get the most preferred level on either Power or Fuel Economy, but not both. Alternative B is the "all or nothing" alternative. You will get the most preferred level on both measures with probability P or the least preferred level on both measures with probability (1-P). The discussion above about the interactions between Power and Fuel Economy gives us a clue about how to answer the question. Since we are looking for both Fuel Economy and Power and since for alternative A, one of these measures is guaranteed to have its least preferred level, neither of the possibilities in alternative A may look very attractive. On the other hand, although alternative B has a 50 percent chance (as a default) of having the least preferred level on both measures, it also has a 50 percent chance of getting the most preferred level on both measures. Since the most preferred part of alternative B is the only one of the four possibilities that looks attractive, you will pick alternative B when P = 50 percent. The question on the screen is asking you to choose a particular probability for B that makes alternatives A and B equally preferred. In the probability assessment method, Ps less than 50 Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial 5-17

Suppose you have a feeling that there is some interaction between<br />

the members of the Performance goal. Specifically, you want it all<br />

-- both high power and good fuel economy. In other words, if a<br />

truck does poorly on “Power” or “Fuel Economy,” you feel it<br />

should have a low “Performance” utility no matter how well the<br />

truck does on the other measure.<br />

In addition, you prefer a truck that does moderately well on both<br />

measures to a truck that does very well on one measure and<br />

poorly on the other. This is called "destructive interaction."<br />

To quantify this idea you must answer another preference<br />

assessment question:<br />

1. Select the Assess::Weights option.<br />

2. LDW will display the assess weights dialog box.<br />

3. Click the “Interactions” tab.<br />

4. Select the "Performance" goal from the “Goal” combo<br />

box.<br />

The several ways to define interactions are listed in the<br />

“Interactions Assessment Method” combo box. Of these methods,<br />

the most easily understood is the probability method.<br />

5. Select the probability method for defining interactions<br />

from the combo box.<br />

6. Click the "Assess" button to begin the assessment<br />

process.<br />

Normally, LDW would ask you to select an existing tradeoff in the<br />

performance goal to use as a basis for the probability question.<br />

However, in this example, there is only one tradeoff to select (the<br />

one between Power and Fuel Economy). After you select the<br />

tradeoff, LDW displays the screen shown in Figure 5-5.<br />

The alternatives in the question are both made up of two<br />

possibilities, each of which occurs with 50 percent probability. It<br />

may be difficult to visualize a situation where such alternatives<br />

would occur. For our example you might think of the alternatives<br />

as a special deal offered by two truck manufacturers to get you to<br />

5-16 Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial

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