Logical Decisions - Classweb

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Figure 5-3. Example of Results::Alternative Uncertainty Graph option. In the figure, the bars represent the number of simulation trials that fell within the bar’s range. The bars use the scale at the right of the graph. The line in the figure represents the cumulative probability distribution, as estimated by the simulation results. Each point on the line represents the probability (the scale at the left of the graph) that the utility will be less than the utility on the x-axis of the graph. Note that this graph combines the effects of the uncertainties for the "Mountain Lion" truck on both the "Resale Value" and "Styling" measures on the "Mountain Lion's" overall utility. Importing and Exporting Data LDW provides powerful features for importing and exporting data from external databases. These features can let you quickly 5-12 Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial
screen a large database for the alternatives that are most likely to meet your needs. We will show how you could use a data file to update the truck example we have been developing. If you have skipped any steps in the tutorial, you should use the File::Open option to load in the file TUTOR2.LDW now. We will update the analysis from the file TUTOR.TAB. The contents of this file are shown in Figure 5-4. ALTERNATIVES NAME NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER LABEL NAME Price Power Fuel Economy City Highway Resale Value Styling Crocodile 21000 140 16.5 15 18 45 Laughable Mountain Lion 19000 109 21.25 16.5 26 65 Mediocre Tiger 18000 125 21 18 24 75 Mediocre Falcon 27000 160 17.5 16 19 66.3 Attractive Coyote 22000 109 23 19 27 55 Muscular Wolf 17500 175 15.5 14 17 65 Nondescript Figure 5-4. Data file for updating tutorial example. The tab delimited file in the figure has some special clues that help LDW interpret it. The word "ALTERNATIVES" in the upper left tells LDW that this is a file it knows how to interpret. The next line (with NAME, NUMBER, etc.) tells LDW the type of data to expect in each column. The next row has the names of the data columns. Notice that the names can correspond to either measures or measure categories. The names of the alternatives are on the left of the matrix. The easiest way to create a file that LDW can read is to first use the File::Export option to create a file of the type you want, and then modify it to include the data you want to import. Setting Cutoffs. Notice also in the figure that the current alternatives ("Coyote", "Mountain Lion" and "Wolf") have their current levels (but with no uncertainties). Note also that the "Falcon" has a price ($27,000) that is above the least preferred level, and that the "Crocodile" has a label for "Styling" -- "Laughable" -- that is not on the list. Lets assume that these alternatives are unacceptable and we don't want to add them to the analysis. For measures with labels, LDW assumes that any label not on the list fails the cutoff for the measure. for other measures, we must explicitly assign an upper and lower cutoff. To set a cutoff for "Price:" Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial 5-13
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Logical Decisions Decision Support
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
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Assessing Interactions Between Meas
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Introduction Real decisions aren't
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S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
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"Logical Decisions". This program g
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Quick Start Introduction This secti
Page 21 and 22: Defining goals and measures. In LDW
Page 23 and 24: Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
Page 25 and 26: weights of the measures. All of the
Page 27: S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
Page 30 and 31: Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
Page 32 and 33: Now lets make sure the alternatives
Page 34 and 35: Assume you have decided that you wi
Page 36 and 37: Next we will enter the measures for
Page 38 and 39: Defining Preferences The alternativ
Page 40 and 41: 1. Select the Assess::Common Units
Page 42 and 43: almost equally unacceptable, while
Page 44 and 45: 1. Select the Assess::Common Units
Page 46 and 47: When you do this, the tradeoff grap
Page 48 and 49: 1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
Page 50 and 51: 8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
Page 52 and 53: Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
Page 54 and 55: Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
Page 56 and 57: Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
Page 58 and 59: You can see the completed introduct
Page 61 and 62: Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
Page 63 and 64: Probabilities There is a problem wi
Page 65 and 66: This information indicates that the
Page 67 and 68: A uniform distribution is defined b
Page 69 and 70: On the left is a list of the possib
Page 71: Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
Page 75 and 76: 9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
Page 77 and 78: commit to buying their truck before
Page 79 and 80: see that the rankings for all the a
Page 81: S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
Page 84 and 85: The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
Page 86 and 87: ! Summary -- view a dialog box that
Page 88 and 89: structure like an organization char
Page 90 and 91: If you check the Show Assessment St
Page 92 and 93: saves it for later pasting. When yo
Page 94 and 95: You can create a new Matrix view by
Page 96 and 97: The quick entry view shows the alte
Page 98 and 99: Structuring Goals The goals in an L
Page 100 and 101: these two fields to describe each m
Page 102 and 103: the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
Page 104 and 105: ! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
Page 106 and 107: Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
Page 108 and 109: Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
Page 110 and 111: pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
Page 112 and 113: Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
Page 114 and 115: Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
Page 117: S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
Page 120 and 121: measure utility functions for the g
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information as possible when you ch
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measures with categories require mu
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The "Reset" button deletes any asse
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You can change the shape of the cur
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Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
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very different from the average of
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Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
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You can, however, leave the assessm
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properties dialog box can be select
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the same level. LDW provides a grap
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options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
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The check box labeled "Allow Repres
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Next you will see a tradeoff assess
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The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
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Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
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You can think of the importance num
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Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
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When you have selected two members
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("importance strength") that best d
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clicking on the "Initialize" button
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Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
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select the tradeoff you would like
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Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
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Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
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The curve shows how the utility fun
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The tradeoff graph has one measure
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When you select the option, you are
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the relative weights of the "Price"
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epresents a computer alternative wi
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Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
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e true even if the measure has a ve
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an analysis are included in exactly
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Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
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Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
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Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
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You can use the measure equivalents
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simulation for each alternative usi
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Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
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You can view a sensitivity table by
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Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
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Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
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In the dialog box, you are asked to
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Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
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Graph an Alternative The graph an a
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Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
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Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
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Other Options utility function for
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In addition, the Window menu contai
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In Depth Introduction This section
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A third example is a portfolio deci
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Each alternative has a raw score (c
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into more specific goals continues
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Measures in LDW You define measures
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computed measure levels to common u
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Converting the Measures to Common U
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Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
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For an example of the mid-level spl
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Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
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Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
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describe two alternatives: A, which
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with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
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In the original formulation of the
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1 Equal Importance Two activities c
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You begin the process by selecting
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Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
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0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
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! You can use the "Smarter Method"
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allocates this weight before comput
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nth root of the product of the rati
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Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
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on the decision maker's response, L
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Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
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Now think of adjusting P so that th
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Another approach is to use the rang
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Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
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If a measure’s range changes, LDW
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Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
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Similarly, a single member can have
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chance having 160 hp (the most pref
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A probability of less than 0.5 for
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Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
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S E C T I O N Examples 10
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the idea that other manufactures an
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The completed goals hierarchy is sh
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Buying a House The ranking results
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Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
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Overall goal Quality goal Costs goa
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The preference assessments were don
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Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
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! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
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S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
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Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
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File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
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utility function” if the active g
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Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
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Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
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Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
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Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
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S E C T I O N Glossary 12
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Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
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LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
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MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
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Preference Set Probabilistic Level
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Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
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Bibliography B
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The classic reference on multiple m
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Appendix This appendix describes th
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= .125 Thus the weight for cost is
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Index adjusted AHP ................
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computing ................8 - 3 int
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