Logical Decisions - Classweb

More documents

Recommendations

Info

1. In the Matrix view, double-click on the "Resale Value" cell for the "Coyote" truck. 2. Click the "Discrete Distribution" radio button. 3. LDW will display a data entry dialog box for the discrete distribution. 4. Enter 3 in the "Number of Levels" edit box to tell LDW there will be three possible discrete levels. Don’t Press Enter. 5. Enter the levels and their probabilities. Enter 0.25 in the "Prob 1" edit box and 50 in the "Level 1" to define the first level-probability combination. 6. Enter 0.5 in the "Prob. 2" edit box, 60 in the "Level 2" edit box. 7. Enter 0.25 in the "Prob 3" edit box, and 65 in the "Level 3" edit box to complete the definition of the distribution. 8. Click "OK" twice to return to the Matrix view. Probabilities for Measures With Labels. You can also define probability distributions for measures that use labels. However, since continuous distributions are inappropriate, you are restricted to a discrete distribution over the different labels. To see how this works, lets define a probability distribution over "Styling" for the "Mountain Lion" truck: 1. In the Matrix view, click on the "Styling" cell for the "Mountain Lion" truck. 2. Select the Matrix::Define Probability option. 3. LDW will display the "Define Label Probabilities" dialog box. 5-8 Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial
On the left is a list of the possible labels. On the right is an edit box showing the probability of the selected label. To define the probability distribution: 4. Move through the list and enter the following probability for each label: Label Probability Attractive 0.0 Muscular 0.0 Nondescript 0.25 Mediocre 0.5 Ugly 0.25 5. Click "OK" to return to the Matrix view. The cell will be highlighted in red to show it has a probability distribution. The label with the highest probability is shown in the cell. If you want to convert from a probability distribution back to a single label, enter a probability of 1.0 for one of the labels and 0.0 for the others. Now might be a good time to save your analysis. Use the File::Save option. Results Displays for Probabilities Several results displays are available to see how probabilities affect your results. The results are computed using Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers to estimate possible outcomes for the probabilistic levels. The utilities of these possible outcomes are computed and saved. After this has been done many times, LDW can use the saved results as an estimate of the cumulative probability over the utility or level of interest. The default number of simulation trials is 100. You can change this with the Preferences::Simulation Options option. Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial 5-9
Page 1 and 2:
Logical Decisions Decision Support
Page 3 and 4:
Table of Contents Table of Contents
Page 5 and 6:
Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
Page 7:
Assessing Interactions Between Meas
Page 11 and 12:
Introduction Real decisions aren't
Page 13:
S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
Page 16 and 17:
"Logical Decisions". This program g
Page 19 and 20: Quick Start Introduction This secti
Page 21 and 22: Defining goals and measures. In LDW
Page 23 and 24: Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
Page 25 and 26: weights of the measures. All of the
Page 27: S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
Page 30 and 31: Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
Page 32 and 33: Now lets make sure the alternatives
Page 34 and 35: Assume you have decided that you wi
Page 36 and 37: Next we will enter the measures for
Page 38 and 39: Defining Preferences The alternativ
Page 40 and 41: 1. Select the Assess::Common Units
Page 42 and 43: almost equally unacceptable, while
Page 44 and 45: 1. Select the Assess::Common Units
Page 46 and 47: When you do this, the tradeoff grap
Page 48 and 49: 1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
Page 50 and 51: 8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
Page 52 and 53: Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
Page 54 and 55: Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
Page 56 and 57: Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
Page 58 and 59: You can see the completed introduct
Page 61 and 62: Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
Page 63 and 64: Probabilities There is a problem wi
Page 65 and 66: This information indicates that the
Page 67: A uniform distribution is defined b
Page 71 and 72: Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
Page 73 and 74: screen a large database for the alt
Page 75 and 76: 9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
Page 77 and 78: commit to buying their truck before
Page 79 and 80: see that the rankings for all the a
Page 81: S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
Page 84 and 85: The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
Page 86 and 87: ! Summary -- view a dialog box that
Page 88 and 89: structure like an organization char
Page 90 and 91: If you check the Show Assessment St
Page 92 and 93: saves it for later pasting. When yo
Page 94 and 95: You can create a new Matrix view by
Page 96 and 97: The quick entry view shows the alte
Page 98 and 99: Structuring Goals The goals in an L
Page 100 and 101: these two fields to describe each m
Page 102 and 103: the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
Page 104 and 105: ! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
Page 106 and 107: Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
Page 108 and 109: Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
Page 110 and 111: pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
Page 112 and 113: Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
Page 114 and 115: Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
Page 117: S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
Page 120 and 121:
measure utility functions for the g
Page 122 and 123:
information as possible when you ch
Page 124 and 125:
measures with categories require mu
Page 126 and 127:
The "Reset" button deletes any asse
Page 128 and 129:
You can change the shape of the cur
Page 130 and 131:
Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
Page 132 and 133:
very different from the average of
Page 134 and 135:
Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
Page 136 and 137:
You can, however, leave the assessm
Page 138 and 139:
properties dialog box can be select
Page 140 and 141:
the same level. LDW provides a grap
Page 142 and 143:
options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
Page 144 and 145:
The check box labeled "Allow Repres
Page 146 and 147:
Next you will see a tradeoff assess
Page 148 and 149:
The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
Page 150 and 151:
Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
Page 152 and 153:
You can think of the importance num
Page 154 and 155:
Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
Page 156 and 157:
When you have selected two members
Page 158 and 159:
("importance strength") that best d
Page 160 and 161:
clicking on the "Initialize" button
Page 162 and 163:
Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
Page 164 and 165:
select the tradeoff you would like
Page 166 and 167:
Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
Page 169 and 170:
Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
Page 171 and 172:
The curve shows how the utility fun
Page 173 and 174:
The tradeoff graph has one measure
Page 175 and 176:
When you select the option, you are
Page 177 and 178:
the relative weights of the "Price"
Page 179 and 180:
epresents a computer alternative wi
Page 181 and 182:
Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
Page 183 and 184:
e true even if the measure has a ve
Page 185 and 186:
an analysis are included in exactly
Page 187 and 188:
Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
Page 189 and 190:
Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
Page 191 and 192:
Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
Page 193 and 194:
You can use the measure equivalents
Page 195 and 196:
simulation for each alternative usi
Page 197 and 198:
Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
Page 199 and 200:
You can view a sensitivity table by
Page 201 and 202:
Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
Page 203 and 204:
Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
Page 205 and 206:
In the dialog box, you are asked to
Page 207 and 208:
Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
Page 209 and 210:
Graph an Alternative The graph an a
Page 211 and 212:
Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
Page 213 and 214:
Finally, the two radio buttons on t
Page 215 and 216:
Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
Page 217 and 218:
Printing and Saving Windows You can
Page 219 and 220:
The dialog box will show you the fi
Page 221 and 222:
Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
Page 223 and 224:
Changing the range for utility. You
Page 225 and 226:
Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
Page 227 and 228:
the current color for that type of
Page 229 and 230:
copies the selected objects to the
Page 231 and 232:
analysis with the skeleton analysis
Page 233 and 234:
Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
Page 235 and 236:
the other measures. The measure nam
Page 237 and 238:
The idea of the Import Structure op
Page 239 and 240:
Next, LDW asks you if it should app
Page 241 and 242:
Other Options utility function for
Page 243:
In addition, the Window menu contai
Page 247 and 248:
In Depth Introduction This section
Page 249 and 250:
A third example is a portfolio deci
Page 251 and 252:
Each alternative has a raw score (c
Page 253 and 254:
into more specific goals continues
Page 255 and 256:
Measures in LDW You define measures
Page 257 and 258:
computed measure levels to common u
Page 259 and 260:
Converting the Measures to Common U
Page 261 and 262:
Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
Page 263 and 264:
For an example of the mid-level spl
Page 265 and 266:
Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
Page 267 and 268:
Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
Page 269 and 270:
describe two alternatives: A, which
Page 271 and 272:
with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
Page 273 and 274:
In the original formulation of the
Page 275 and 276:
1 Equal Importance Two activities c
Page 277 and 278:
You begin the process by selecting
Page 279 and 280:
Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
Page 281 and 282:
0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
Page 283 and 284:
! You can use the "Smarter Method"
Page 285 and 286:
allocates this weight before comput
Page 287 and 288:
nth root of the product of the rati
Page 289 and 290:
Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
Page 291 and 292:
on the decision maker's response, L
Page 293 and 294:
Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
Page 295 and 296:
Now think of adjusting P so that th
Page 297 and 298:
Another approach is to use the rang
Page 299 and 300:
Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
Page 301 and 302:
If a measure’s range changes, LDW
Page 303 and 304:
Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
Page 305 and 306:
Similarly, a single member can have
Page 307 and 308:
chance having 160 hp (the most pref
Page 309 and 310:
A probability of less than 0.5 for
Page 311 and 312:
Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
Page 313:
S E C T I O N Examples 10
Page 316 and 317:
the idea that other manufactures an
Page 318 and 319:
The completed goals hierarchy is sh
Page 320 and 321:
Buying a House The ranking results
Page 322 and 323:
Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
Page 324 and 325:
Overall goal Quality goal Costs goa
Page 326 and 327:
The preference assessments were don
Page 328 and 329:
Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
Page 330 and 331:
! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
Page 333:
S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
Page 336 and 337:
Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
Page 338 and 339:
File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
Page 340 and 341:
utility function” if the active g
Page 342 and 343:
Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
Page 344 and 345:
Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
Page 346 and 347:
Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
Page 348 and 349:
Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
Page 351:
S E C T I O N Glossary 12
Page 354 and 355:
Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
Page 356 and 357:
LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
Page 358 and 359:
MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
Page 360 and 361:
Preference Set Probabilistic Level
Page 362 and 363:
Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
Page 365:
Bibliography B
Page 368 and 369:
The classic reference on multiple m
Page 371 and 372:
Appendix This appendix describes th
Page 373:
= .125 Thus the weight for cost is
Page 377 and 378:
Index adjusted AHP ................
Page 379:
computing ................8 - 3 int
show all

Logical Decisions - Classweb

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?