Logical Decisions - Classweb

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Advanced Tutorial .....................................5 - 1 Measure Categories ...................................5 - 1 Probabilities ..........................................5 - 3 Results Displays for Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 - 9 Importing and Exporting Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 - 12 Defining Interactions Between Goal Members . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 - 15 Using LDW 1: Structuring ...............................6 - 1 Introduction ..........................................6 - 1 Structuring a Logical Decisions Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 1 Editing Options for Structuring Your Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 1 Views for structuring your analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 3 The Summary View ............................6 - 4 The Goals Hierarchy View .......................6 - 5 The Matrix View...............................6 - 10 The Quick Entry View ..........................6 - 13 Structuring Alternatives...............................6 - 14 Structuring Goals ....................................6 - 16 Structuring Evaluation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 17 Structuring Measure Levels............................6 - 20 Probabilistic Measure Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 21 Levels with labels..............................6 - 29 Measure Categories ............................6 - 30 Printing Evaluation Forms.............................6 - 32 Using LDW 2: Assessing ................................7 - 1 Introduction ..........................................7 - 1 Preference Sets .................................7 - 1 Overview of Preference Assessments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 5 Defining Category Multipliers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 5 Converting Measure Levels to Common Units . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 6 Common Units Using SUFs ......................7 - 8 Common Units Using Analytic Hierarchy Process .......................................7 - 15 Common Units Using Adjusted AHP . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 19 Common Units Using AHP SUFs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 19 Common Units Using Direct Entry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 21 Common Units for Measures With Labels . . . . . . . . . 7 - 22 Assessing Weights....................................7 - 23 Selecting Goals With a MUF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 23 Preparing for Assessing Weights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 24 Assessing Weights with Tradeoffs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 26 Assessing Weights by Direct Entry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 31 Assessing Weights with the "Smarter" Method . . . . . 7 - 33 Assessing Weights with the "Smart Method" . . . . . . 7 - 35 ii Logical Decisions
Assessing Weights with Weight Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 37 Assessing Weights with the Analytic Hierarchy Process ....................................... 7 - 38 Changing Assessment Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 40 Defining Interactions ................................. 7 - 41 Interactions When Directly Entering Weights . . . . . . 7 - 44 Printing Questionnaires............................... 7 - 45 Consistency Checks .................................. 7 - 45 Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 - 1 Introduction .......................................... 8 - 1 Reviewing Your Preferences ............................ 8 - 1 Common Units (SUF) Graphs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 - 2 Computing Utilities From Measure Levels . . . . . . . . . 8 - 3 Graphs of Single Tradeoffs ....................... 8 - 4 Tradeoffs by One Measure ....................... 8 - 5 Tradeoff Summary Graphs ....................... 8 - 6 Graph Pairs of Measures......................... 8 - 9 Comments Summary........................... 8 - 12 Assessment Summary .......................... 8 - 12 Percentage Weights ............................ 8 - 13 MUF Formulas ................................ 8 - 15 SUF Formulas ................................. 8 - 17 Graph Weights ................................ 8 - 19 Viewing Your Results ................................. 8 - 19 Rank Alternatives ............................. 8 - 20 Stacked Bar Ranking ........................... 8 - 22 Measure Equivalents Ranking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 - 24 Uncertainty Summary.......................... 8 - 25 Dynamic Sensitivity............................ 8 - 27 Sensitivity Graphs ............................. 8 - 29 Sensitivity Table ............................... 8 - 30 Scatter Diagrams .............................. 8 - 31 Efficient Frontier .............................. 8 - 33 Ranking Results Graph ......................... 8 - 36 Ranking Results Matrix......................... 8 - 38 Preference Set Summary........................ 8 - 38 Cutoff Summary............................... 8 - 40 Graph an Alternative........................... 8 - 41 Alternative Uncertainty Graph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 - 44 Compare Alternatives .......................... 8 - 45 ............................................. 8 - 48 Printing and Saving Windows ......................... 8 - 49 Printing Graphics.............................. 8 - 49 Copying Graphics Images to the Clipboard . . . . . . . 8 - 50 Saving Windows to a File ....................... 8 - 50 Logical Decisions iii
Page 1 and 2: Logical Decisions Decision Support
Page 3: Table of Contents Table of Contents
Page 7: Assessing Interactions Between Meas
Page 11 and 12: Introduction Real decisions aren't
Page 13: S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
Page 16 and 17: "Logical Decisions". This program g
Page 19 and 20: Quick Start Introduction This secti
Page 21 and 22: Defining goals and measures. In LDW
Page 23 and 24: Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
Page 25 and 26: weights of the measures. All of the
Page 27: S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
Page 30 and 31: Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
Page 32 and 33: Now lets make sure the alternatives
Page 34 and 35: Assume you have decided that you wi
Page 36 and 37: Next we will enter the measures for
Page 38 and 39: Defining Preferences The alternativ
Page 40 and 41: 1. Select the Assess::Common Units
Page 42 and 43: almost equally unacceptable, while
Page 44 and 45: 1. Select the Assess::Common Units
Page 46 and 47: When you do this, the tradeoff grap
Page 48 and 49: 1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
Page 50 and 51: 8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
Page 52 and 53: Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
Page 54 and 55:
Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
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Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
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You can see the completed introduct
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Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
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Probabilities There is a problem wi
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This information indicates that the
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A uniform distribution is defined b
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On the left is a list of the possib
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Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
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screen a large database for the alt
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9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
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commit to buying their truck before
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see that the rankings for all the a
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
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The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
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! Summary -- view a dialog box that
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structure like an organization char
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If you check the Show Assessment St
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saves it for later pasting. When yo
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You can create a new Matrix view by
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The quick entry view shows the alte
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Structuring Goals The goals in an L
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these two fields to describe each m
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the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
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! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
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Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
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Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
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pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
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Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
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Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
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measure utility functions for the g
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information as possible when you ch
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measures with categories require mu
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The "Reset" button deletes any asse
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You can change the shape of the cur
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Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
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very different from the average of
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Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
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You can, however, leave the assessm
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properties dialog box can be select
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the same level. LDW provides a grap
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options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
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The check box labeled "Allow Repres
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Next you will see a tradeoff assess
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The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
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Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
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You can think of the importance num
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Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
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When you have selected two members
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("importance strength") that best d
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clicking on the "Initialize" button
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Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
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select the tradeoff you would like
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Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
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Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
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The curve shows how the utility fun
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The tradeoff graph has one measure
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When you select the option, you are
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the relative weights of the "Price"
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epresents a computer alternative wi
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Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
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e true even if the measure has a ve
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an analysis are included in exactly
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Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
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Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
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Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
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You can use the measure equivalents
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simulation for each alternative usi
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Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
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You can view a sensitivity table by
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Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
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Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
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In the dialog box, you are asked to
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Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
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Graph an Alternative The graph an a
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Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
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Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
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Other Options utility function for
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In addition, the Window menu contai
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In Depth Introduction This section
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A third example is a portfolio deci
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Each alternative has a raw score (c
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into more specific goals continues
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Measures in LDW You define measures
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computed measure levels to common u
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Converting the Measures to Common U
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Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
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For an example of the mid-level spl
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Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
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Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
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describe two alternatives: A, which
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with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
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In the original formulation of the
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1 Equal Importance Two activities c
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You begin the process by selecting
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Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
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0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
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! You can use the "Smarter Method"
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allocates this weight before comput
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nth root of the product of the rati
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Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
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on the decision maker's response, L
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Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
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Now think of adjusting P so that th
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Another approach is to use the rang
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Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
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If a measure’s range changes, LDW
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Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
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Similarly, a single member can have
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chance having 160 hp (the most pref
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A probability of less than 0.5 for
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Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
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S E C T I O N Examples 10
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the idea that other manufactures an
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The completed goals hierarchy is sh
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Buying a House The ranking results
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Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
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Overall goal Quality goal Costs goa
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The preference assessments were don
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Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
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! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
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S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
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Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
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File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
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utility function” if the active g
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Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
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Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
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Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
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Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
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S E C T I O N Glossary 12
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Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
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LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
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MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
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Preference Set Probabilistic Level
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Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
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Bibliography B
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The classic reference on multiple m
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Appendix This appendix describes th
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= .125 Thus the weight for cost is
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Index adjusted AHP ................
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computing ................8 - 3 int
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