Logical Decisions - Classweb

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probabilistic ..............6 - 29 LDW file .....................8 - 62 level ................ 3 - 3, 9 - 4, 9 - 9 modifying................6 - 11 most and least preferred . . . 6 - 18 point estimate . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 20 probabilistic . . . . . . . . 6 - 11, 6 - 21 structuring ...............6 - 20 types ....................6 - 20 matrix menu..................6 - 12 matrix view . 3 - 2, 6 - 10, 6 - 14, 6 - 17, 6 - 20, 9 - 6, 9 - 10 measure ......................9 - 4 adding...................6 - 19 cutoff level ...............6 - 18 dialog box................6 - 17 increasing and decreasing . . . 9 - 8 labels .............. 6 - 19, 6 - 29 range ....................6 - 18 structuring . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 17, 9 - 8 measure categories . . . . . . 6 - 30, 9 - 10 adding...................6 - 31 changing.................6 - 31 deleting..................6 - 31 multipliers . . . . . . . . . . 7 - 5, 9 - 11 measure categories view . . . . . . 6 - 17, 6 - 30 member.......................9 - 7 mid-level splitting . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 - 16 mid-preference level . . . . . . . . . . . 9 - 16 Monte Carlo simulation . . . . . . . . 6 - 27 MUF .......7 - 23, 8 - 11, 9 - 31, 12 - 2 additive..................9 - 36 assessing.................9 - 36 formula ............ 8 - 15, 9 - 36 multiplicative . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 - 55 nominal utility ................6 - 16 normal distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 25 pairwise weight ratios . . 7 - 37, 9 - 39, 9 - 40 piecewise linear cumulative . . . . 6 - 24 point estimate . . . . . 6 - 20, 6 - 22, 9 - 9 preference set..................7 - 1 adding....................7 - 3 changing...................7 - 3 deleting....................7 - 3 dialog box..................7 - 3 preferences assessing............. 7 - 5, 9 - 12 printing graphics ..................8 - 49 probabilistic level . . . 6 - 11, 6 - 21, 9 - 9 dialog box.................6 - 21 range .........................6 - 18 representatives . . . . 7 - 26, 7 - 27, 7 - 38, 9 - 34 results menu ..................8 - 19 review menu ...................8 - 2 risk aversion . . . . . . 7 - 13, 9 - 15, 9 - 25 risk premium............ 7 - 12, 9 - 25 sample........................6 - 28 smart method . . . . . 7 - 25, 7 - 35, 9 - 39 smarter method . . . . 7 - 24, 7 - 33, 9 - 37 sorting........................8 - 55 status.............. 7 - 4, 7 - 25, 7 - 42 SUF ................ 3 - 4, 7 - 6, 9 - 14 assessing............. 7 - 8, 9 - 15 assessing with probabilities ................9 - 22 formulas ............ 8 - 17, 8 - 19 initialize ...................7 - 8 non-linear.................9 - 15 reviewing ..................8 - 2 sub-range ..................7 - 9 Summary Dialog Box . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 4 swing weights .................9 - 39 tab delimited files . . . . . . . . 8 - 67, 8 - 72 three point estimate . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 26 tradeoff ........... 7 - 26, 9 - 42, 12 - 1 assessing..................9 - 45 consistency checks . . . . . . . . . 7 - 45 graph.....................7 - 28 reviewing ..................8 - 4 tradeoff method . . . 7 - 25, 7 - 45, 9 - 41 assessing..................7 - 26 reviewing ..................8 - 6 uniform distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 - 23 utility............... 3 - 4, 3 - 5, 9 - 13 I-2 Index
computing ................8 - 3 interpreting ..............9 - 65 nominal .................9 - 35 overall...................9 - 32 range ....................8 - 54 view menu ....................6 - 3 weights ......................12 - 1 assessing............ 3 - 5, 7 - 23 percentage ...............8 - 13 scaling constants . . . . . . . . . . 8 - 15 zooming .....................8 - 57 Index I-3
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Logical Decisions Decision Support
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
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Assessing Interactions Between Meas
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Introduction Real decisions aren't
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S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
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"Logical Decisions". This program g
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Quick Start Introduction This secti
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Defining goals and measures. In LDW
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Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
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weights of the measures. All of the
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S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
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Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
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Now lets make sure the alternatives
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Assume you have decided that you wi
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Next we will enter the measures for
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Defining Preferences The alternativ
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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almost equally unacceptable, while
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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When you do this, the tradeoff grap
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1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
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8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
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Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
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Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
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Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
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You can see the completed introduct
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Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
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Probabilities There is a problem wi
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This information indicates that the
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A uniform distribution is defined b
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On the left is a list of the possib
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Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
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screen a large database for the alt
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9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
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commit to buying their truck before
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see that the rankings for all the a
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
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The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
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! Summary -- view a dialog box that
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structure like an organization char
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If you check the Show Assessment St
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saves it for later pasting. When yo
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You can create a new Matrix view by
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The quick entry view shows the alte
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Structuring Goals The goals in an L
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these two fields to describe each m
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the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
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! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
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Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
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Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
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pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
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Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
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Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
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measure utility functions for the g
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information as possible when you ch
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measures with categories require mu
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The "Reset" button deletes any asse
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You can change the shape of the cur
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Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
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very different from the average of
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Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
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You can, however, leave the assessm
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properties dialog box can be select
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the same level. LDW provides a grap
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options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
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The check box labeled "Allow Repres
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Next you will see a tradeoff assess
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The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
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Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
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You can think of the importance num
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Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
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When you have selected two members
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("importance strength") that best d
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clicking on the "Initialize" button
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Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
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select the tradeoff you would like
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Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
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Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
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The curve shows how the utility fun
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The tradeoff graph has one measure
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When you select the option, you are
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the relative weights of the "Price"
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epresents a computer alternative wi
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Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
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e true even if the measure has a ve
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an analysis are included in exactly
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Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
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Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
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Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
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You can use the measure equivalents
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simulation for each alternative usi
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Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
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You can view a sensitivity table by
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Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
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Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
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In the dialog box, you are asked to
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Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
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Graph an Alternative The graph an a
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Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
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Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
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Other Options utility function for
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In addition, the Window menu contai
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In Depth Introduction This section
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A third example is a portfolio deci
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Each alternative has a raw score (c
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into more specific goals continues
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Measures in LDW You define measures
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computed measure levels to common u
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Converting the Measures to Common U
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Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
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For an example of the mid-level spl
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Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
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Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
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describe two alternatives: A, which
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with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
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In the original formulation of the
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1 Equal Importance Two activities c
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You begin the process by selecting
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Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
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0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
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! You can use the "Smarter Method"
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allocates this weight before comput
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nth root of the product of the rati
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Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
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on the decision maker's response, L
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Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
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Now think of adjusting P so that th
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Another approach is to use the rang
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Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
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If a measure’s range changes, LDW
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Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
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Similarly, a single member can have
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chance having 160 hp (the most pref
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A probability of less than 0.5 for
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Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
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S E C T I O N Examples 10
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the idea that other manufactures an
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The completed goals hierarchy is sh
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Buying a House The ranking results
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Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
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Overall goal Quality goal Costs goa
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The preference assessments were don
Page 328 and 329: Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
Page 330 and 331: ! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
Page 333: S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
Page 336 and 337: Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
Page 338 and 339: File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
Page 340 and 341: utility function” if the active g
Page 342 and 343: Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
Page 344 and 345: Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
Page 346 and 347: Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
Page 348 and 349: Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
Page 351: S E C T I O N Glossary 12
Page 354 and 355: Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
Page 356 and 357: LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
Page 358 and 359: MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
Page 360 and 361: Preference Set Probabilistic Level
Page 362 and 363: Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
Page 365: Bibliography B
Page 368 and 369: The classic reference on multiple m
Page 371 and 372: Appendix This appendix describes th
Page 373: = .125 Thus the weight for cost is
Page 377: Index adjusted AHP ................
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