Logical Decisions - Classweb

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The preference assessments were done in the normal fashion using the mid-level splitting technique to assess the singlemeasure utility functions. All of the tradeoffs were assessed against purchase price. The family used the Compare Alternatives option extensively in gaining an understanding of the ranking results. For example, one house they looked at was an older custom built home with a Japanese motif and a spectacular view of the city of Denver. However, the house was rather small and needed extensive renovations. When compared to the highest ranking house it was found that the custom features could not make up for the small size and needed work, as shown in Figure 10-8. Figure 10-8. Alternatives comparison for two homes Reservoir Location Selection The final example is a planning decision faced by a large urban water district. They were planning a large new reservoir for backup and emergency water storage. Because of the reservoir's size, it would be costly and would also have significant environmental and social impacts. In addition, the location of the reservoir would affect how well it would fit into the district's existing operational system. A planning team was charged with 10-12 Section 10 -- Examples
the task of evaluating potential reservoir locations and making a recommendation to the district's board of directors. The team used an initial screening process to identify a set of potential sites for evaluation. They used LDW to help develop a quantitative ranking in support of their more qualitative recommendations. The team included the ranking results as part of the alternatives analysis for the project's environmental impact assessment documents. The reservoir selection example is included in the file RESEX.LDW. The reservoir ranking differs from the previous examples in that the ranking represents the consensus of a team of experts, rather than the preferences of an individual. The project team used the LDW preference assessment process as a structured forum where they could discuss the relative importances of different aspects of the project. These discussions allowed the project team to arrive at a consensus preference set and thus a consensus overall ranking of the alternatives. This ranking also helped the project team formulate and organize their qualitative recommendations. The team used sensitivity analyses extensively to identify the effects of changes in the measures' relative importances. Six reservoir sites were selected for evaluation. Some alternatives were enlargements to existing reservoirs, while others were entirely new sites. Several sites could fit more than one size of reservoir, but with differing impacts and operational effects. The team developed multiple alternatives with differing reservoir sizes at these sites. The sites were ranked independently of size, with costs being measured on a dollars per acre foot basis. (An acre foot is a measure of water volume and thus reservoir capacity.) A separate analysis used the ranking results to select the recommended reservoir size. The team developed the goals hierarchy together with the technical experts and consultants working on the project. To identify the measures and lower level sub-goals for each major sub-goal, the team held a meeting with the experts in that area. These meetings helped ensure that the proper data was collected for each site and that the data was collected uniformly. Figure 10- 9 shows the goals hierarchy for the reservoir selection process. Section 10 -- Examples 10-13
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Logical Decisions Decision Support
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
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Assessing Interactions Between Meas
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Introduction Real decisions aren't
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S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
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"Logical Decisions". This program g
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Quick Start Introduction This secti
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Defining goals and measures. In LDW
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Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
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weights of the measures. All of the
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S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
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Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
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Now lets make sure the alternatives
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Assume you have decided that you wi
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Next we will enter the measures for
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Defining Preferences The alternativ
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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almost equally unacceptable, while
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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When you do this, the tradeoff grap
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1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
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8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
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Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
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Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
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Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
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You can see the completed introduct
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Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
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Probabilities There is a problem wi
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This information indicates that the
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A uniform distribution is defined b
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On the left is a list of the possib
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Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
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screen a large database for the alt
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9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
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commit to buying their truck before
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see that the rankings for all the a
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
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The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
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! Summary -- view a dialog box that
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structure like an organization char
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If you check the Show Assessment St
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saves it for later pasting. When yo
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You can create a new Matrix view by
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The quick entry view shows the alte
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Structuring Goals The goals in an L
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these two fields to describe each m
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the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
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! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
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Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
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Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
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pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
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Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
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Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
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measure utility functions for the g
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information as possible when you ch
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measures with categories require mu
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The "Reset" button deletes any asse
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You can change the shape of the cur
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Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
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very different from the average of
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Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
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You can, however, leave the assessm
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properties dialog box can be select
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the same level. LDW provides a grap
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options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
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The check box labeled "Allow Repres
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Next you will see a tradeoff assess
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The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
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Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
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You can think of the importance num
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Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
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When you have selected two members
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("importance strength") that best d
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clicking on the "Initialize" button
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Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
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select the tradeoff you would like
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Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
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Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
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The curve shows how the utility fun
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The tradeoff graph has one measure
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When you select the option, you are
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the relative weights of the "Price"
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epresents a computer alternative wi
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Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
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e true even if the measure has a ve
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an analysis are included in exactly
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Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
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Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
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Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
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You can use the measure equivalents
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simulation for each alternative usi
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Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
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You can view a sensitivity table by
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Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
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Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
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In the dialog box, you are asked to
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Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
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Graph an Alternative The graph an a
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Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
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Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
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Other Options utility function for
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In addition, the Window menu contai
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In Depth Introduction This section
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A third example is a portfolio deci
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Each alternative has a raw score (c
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into more specific goals continues
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Measures in LDW You define measures
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computed measure levels to common u
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Converting the Measures to Common U
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Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
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For an example of the mid-level spl
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Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
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Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
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describe two alternatives: A, which
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with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
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In the original formulation of the
Page 275 and 276: 1 Equal Importance Two activities c
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Page 279 and 280: Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
Page 281 and 282: 0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
Page 283 and 284: ! You can use the "Smarter Method"
Page 285 and 286: allocates this weight before comput
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Page 289 and 290: Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
Page 291 and 292: on the decision maker's response, L
Page 293 and 294: Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
Page 295 and 296: Now think of adjusting P so that th
Page 297 and 298: Another approach is to use the rang
Page 299 and 300: Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
Page 301 and 302: If a measure’s range changes, LDW
Page 303 and 304: Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
Page 305 and 306: Similarly, a single member can have
Page 307 and 308: chance having 160 hp (the most pref
Page 309 and 310: A probability of less than 0.5 for
Page 311 and 312: Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
Page 313: S E C T I O N Examples 10
Page 316 and 317: the idea that other manufactures an
Page 318 and 319: The completed goals hierarchy is sh
Page 320 and 321: Buying a House The ranking results
Page 322 and 323: Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
Page 324 and 325: Overall goal Quality goal Costs goa
Page 328 and 329: Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
Page 330 and 331: ! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
Page 333: S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
Page 336 and 337: Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
Page 338 and 339: File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
Page 340 and 341: utility function” if the active g
Page 342 and 343: Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
Page 344 and 345: Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
Page 346 and 347: Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
Page 348 and 349: Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
Page 351: S E C T I O N Glossary 12
Page 354 and 355: Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
Page 356 and 357: LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
Page 358 and 359: MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
Page 360 and 361: Preference Set Probabilistic Level
Page 362 and 363: Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
Page 365: Bibliography B
Page 368 and 369: The classic reference on multiple m
Page 371 and 372: Appendix This appendix describes th
Page 373: = .125 Thus the weight for cost is
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Index adjusted AHP ................
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computing ................8 - 3 int
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