Logical Decisions - Classweb

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Overall goal Quality goal Costs goal Size goal Quality goal Costs goal Size goal Location goal Amenities goal Appearance goal Construction Quality goal House Selection Checklist _____ Condition measure 1) Brand new 2) Pristine Condition 3) A few minor flaws 4) Run down 5) A real fixer upper Maintenance goal ________ Purchase Price measure (thousands of dollars) ________ Needed Repairs measure (thousands of dollars) ________ Operating Costs measure (dollars per month) (electric, water, gas, sewage, association fees, taxes, regular maintenance) Overall Size goal _____ Garage Size measure (number of cars) _____ Lot Size measure (thousand sq. ft.) _____ Living Room Size measure (sq. ft.) _____ Storage Space measure 1) Abundant storage space with at least one walk in closet 2) Adequate storage space 3) Marginal storage space Location goal Amenities goal Appearance goal Surroundings goal Commute goal _____ Dog Area measure (yes/no) _____ Sauna measure (yes/no) _____ Hot Tub measure (yes/no) _____ Decks measure 1) lots of decks 2) one or two decks (or a porch) 3) no decks or porch _____ Dishwasher measure (yes/no) _____ Clothes Washer measure (yes/no) _____ Clothes Dryer measure (yes/no) _____ Refrigerator measure 1) large, fancy refrigerator 2) regular refrigerator 3) old refrigerator 4) no refrigerator _____ Trash Compactor measure (yes/no) _____ Central Air Condit. measure (yes/no) _____ TV measure 1) satellite dish 2) cable TV hooked up or available (add hookup costs to required repairs) 3) good reception 4) crummy reception _____ Fireplaces measure (number) Interior goal _____ Exterior Appearance measure 1) Architecturally Striking 2) Contemporary 3) Tudor 4) Mountain Contemporary or Modern Log 5) Ranch 6) Tract Home Figure 10-6. First page of house selection evaluation form. 10-10 Section 10 -- Examples
Construction Quality goal House Selection Checklist (pg. 2) _____ Construction Matls. measure 1) highest quality materials used throughout 2) good quality materials 3) average quality materials 4) below average materials _____ Workmanship measure 1) Above average professional workmanship with artistic detailing 2) Above average professional workmanship 3) Writer or equiv. 4) Average workmanship 5) Below average workmanship _____ Systems measure 1) All major systems (electrical, plumbing, heating) built to highest current standards 2) All systems built to adequate standards 3) One system in need of upgrading 4) more than one system in need of upgrading Maintenance goal Overall Size goal Surroundings goal Commute goal Interior goal _____ Flat Roof measure (yes/no) _____ Lawn/Yard measure 1) Extensive lawn/garden needing heavy maintenance 2) Lawn/garden needs some maintenance 3) No maintenance natural yard _____ Well measure (yes/no) _____ Septic Tank measure (yes/no) _____ Upstairs Size measure (sq. ft.) _____ Finished Basement measure (sq. ft.) _____ Walkout Basement measure (yes/no) _____ Surroundings Qual. measure 1) Sweeping unspoiled panorama 2) Pristine Creekside 3) Pristine forest 4) Forest with some flaws/well kept city street 5) City street with some flaws 6) Funky looking neighborhood 7) Tract houses _____ Privacy measure 1) completely isolated 2) good privacy but some neighbors visible 3) some neighbors close by, but well shielded by walls of house or other barriers 4) some impingement by neighbors 5) located in a crowded residential/tract neighborhood _____ Traffic measure 1) at the end of a dead end street 2) one side bordered by a lightly traveled road 3) back and front both bordered by light to moderately traveled roads 4) one or both sides bordered by a well traveled street _____ Neighborhood Amenity measure (paved roads -- yes/no) _____ Commute Distance measure (minutes drive to parking lot) _____ Shopping Distance measure (minutes drive to nearest supermarket) _____ Office Location measure 1) Large, well lighted, comfortable office loca 2) OK office location 3) Cramped office location _____ Light and Space measure 1) Bright, airy house with lots of windows 2) Average light and air 3) Below average light and air _____ Interior Layout measure 1) Well thought out layout with conveniences and good use of space 2) good layout with some problems (living room next to master bedroom) 3) OK layout 4) below average layout _____ Ceilings measure 1) Lots of vaults, beamed ceilings, above average ceiling height throughout 2) Some vaults, beams, average ceiling height 3) Normal ceilings 4) normal ceilings with some below normal areas _____ Detailing Style measure 1) Art Deco or Distinctive 40's/50's 2) Contemporary 3) Victorian or Turn of the century or 20's 4) Nondescript 5) Early American or "Country" _____ Kitchen measure 1) Spacious with lots of counters, cabinets and high quality appliances (gas stove) 2) Nice but not outstanding 3) Deficient in at least one area (counter space, cabinets, appliance quality) 4) Cramped and/or funky _____ Bathrooms measure 1) Two or more with a well designed master bath 2) Two or more with poorly designed master bath 3) Two or more normal bathrooms 4) Only one bathroom (probably unacceptable) Figure 10-7. Page 2 of house selection example evaluation form. Section 10 -- Examples 10-11
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Logical Decisions Decision Support
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
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Assessing Interactions Between Meas
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Introduction Real decisions aren't
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S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
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"Logical Decisions". This program g
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Quick Start Introduction This secti
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Defining goals and measures. In LDW
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Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
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weights of the measures. All of the
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S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
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Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
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Now lets make sure the alternatives
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Assume you have decided that you wi
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Next we will enter the measures for
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Defining Preferences The alternativ
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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almost equally unacceptable, while
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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When you do this, the tradeoff grap
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1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
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8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
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Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
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Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
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Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
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You can see the completed introduct
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Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
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Probabilities There is a problem wi
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This information indicates that the
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A uniform distribution is defined b
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On the left is a list of the possib
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Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
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screen a large database for the alt
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9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
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commit to buying their truck before
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see that the rankings for all the a
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
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The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
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! Summary -- view a dialog box that
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structure like an organization char
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If you check the Show Assessment St
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saves it for later pasting. When yo
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You can create a new Matrix view by
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The quick entry view shows the alte
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Structuring Goals The goals in an L
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these two fields to describe each m
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the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
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! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
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Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
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Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
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pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
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Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
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Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
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measure utility functions for the g
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information as possible when you ch
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measures with categories require mu
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The "Reset" button deletes any asse
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You can change the shape of the cur
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Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
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very different from the average of
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Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
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You can, however, leave the assessm
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properties dialog box can be select
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the same level. LDW provides a grap
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options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
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The check box labeled "Allow Repres
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Next you will see a tradeoff assess
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The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
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Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
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You can think of the importance num
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Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
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When you have selected two members
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("importance strength") that best d
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clicking on the "Initialize" button
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Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
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select the tradeoff you would like
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Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
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Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
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The curve shows how the utility fun
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The tradeoff graph has one measure
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When you select the option, you are
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the relative weights of the "Price"
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epresents a computer alternative wi
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Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
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e true even if the measure has a ve
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an analysis are included in exactly
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Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
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Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
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Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
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You can use the measure equivalents
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simulation for each alternative usi
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Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
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You can view a sensitivity table by
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Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
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Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
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In the dialog box, you are asked to
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Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
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Graph an Alternative The graph an a
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Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
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Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
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Other Options utility function for
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In addition, the Window menu contai
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In Depth Introduction This section
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A third example is a portfolio deci
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Each alternative has a raw score (c
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into more specific goals continues
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Measures in LDW You define measures
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computed measure levels to common u
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Converting the Measures to Common U
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Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
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For an example of the mid-level spl
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Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
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Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
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describe two alternatives: A, which
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with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
Page 273 and 274: In the original formulation of the
Page 275 and 276: 1 Equal Importance Two activities c
Page 277 and 278: You begin the process by selecting
Page 279 and 280: Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
Page 281 and 282: 0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
Page 283 and 284: ! You can use the "Smarter Method"
Page 285 and 286: allocates this weight before comput
Page 287 and 288: nth root of the product of the rati
Page 289 and 290: Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
Page 291 and 292: on the decision maker's response, L
Page 293 and 294: Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
Page 295 and 296: Now think of adjusting P so that th
Page 297 and 298: Another approach is to use the rang
Page 299 and 300: Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
Page 301 and 302: If a measure’s range changes, LDW
Page 303 and 304: Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
Page 305 and 306: Similarly, a single member can have
Page 307 and 308: chance having 160 hp (the most pref
Page 309 and 310: A probability of less than 0.5 for
Page 311 and 312: Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
Page 313: S E C T I O N Examples 10
Page 316 and 317: the idea that other manufactures an
Page 318 and 319: The completed goals hierarchy is sh
Page 320 and 321: Buying a House The ranking results
Page 322 and 323: Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
Page 326 and 327: The preference assessments were don
Page 328 and 329: Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
Page 330 and 331: ! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
Page 333: S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
Page 336 and 337: Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
Page 338 and 339: File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
Page 340 and 341: utility function” if the active g
Page 342 and 343: Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
Page 344 and 345: Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
Page 346 and 347: Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
Page 348 and 349: Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
Page 351: S E C T I O N Glossary 12
Page 354 and 355: Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
Page 356 and 357: LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
Page 358 and 359: MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
Page 360 and 361: Preference Set Probabilistic Level
Page 362 and 363: Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
Page 365: Bibliography B
Page 368 and 369: The classic reference on multiple m
Page 371 and 372: Appendix This appendix describes th
Page 373: = .125 Thus the weight for cost is
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Index adjusted AHP ................
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computing ................8 - 3 int
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