Logical Decisions - Classweb

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Examples Introduction This section provides three examples of how <strong>Logical</strong> <strong>Decisions</strong> (LDW) has been used on real problems. The first example involves selecting a personal computer system -- a problem faced by small businesses. The second example involves buying a home. The final example is finding the best location for a reservoir -- a large engineering problem of the type faced by many public agencies. These examples are actual case studies that used the LDW software, although the details have been changed to protect clients' anonymity These examples should give you a better idea of how LDW you can use in practice and of the types of insights you can gain by using LDW. Each example has an associated LDW data file that is installed with the LDW software. These files will let you review the SUFs and tradeoffs developed for each analysis. You can gain an understanding of how to use the results displays by trying the different options with these example data sets. Buying a Computer The first example is a small business in the process of upgrading its personal computer system. The company wanted a powerful computer but naturally wanted to minimize its cost. In reviewing the advertisements and reviews in local and national publications, the decision maker found a myriad of systems with many available options and configurations. Each manufacturer used different components with differing performances. The different configurations all resulted in different prices and made it difficult to see which system represented the best value. Note that this analysis was done in 1990 and reflects the computer technology and prices of that time. After a careful review of the current advertisements the decision maker could narrow the manufacturers down to a preliminary list of six companies. For each company, the decision maker identified the computer system that seemed to best fit his needs. If more than one system seemed promising, they were both included as alternatives. This process was done informally, with Section 10 -- Examples 10-1
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Logical Decisions Decision Support
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
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Assessing Interactions Between Meas
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Introduction Real decisions aren't
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S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
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"Logical Decisions". This program g
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Quick Start Introduction This secti
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Defining goals and measures. In LDW
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Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
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weights of the measures. All of the
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S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
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Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
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Now lets make sure the alternatives
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Assume you have decided that you wi
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Next we will enter the measures for
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Defining Preferences The alternativ
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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almost equally unacceptable, while
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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When you do this, the tradeoff grap
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1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
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8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
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Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
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Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
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Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
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You can see the completed introduct
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Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
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Probabilities There is a problem wi
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This information indicates that the
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A uniform distribution is defined b
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On the left is a list of the possib
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Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
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screen a large database for the alt
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9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
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commit to buying their truck before
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see that the rankings for all the a
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
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The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
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! Summary -- view a dialog box that
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structure like an organization char
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If you check the Show Assessment St
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saves it for later pasting. When yo
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You can create a new Matrix view by
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The quick entry view shows the alte
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Structuring Goals The goals in an L
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these two fields to describe each m
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the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
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! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
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Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
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Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
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pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
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Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
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Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
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measure utility functions for the g
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information as possible when you ch
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measures with categories require mu
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The "Reset" button deletes any asse
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You can change the shape of the cur
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Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
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very different from the average of
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Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
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You can, however, leave the assessm
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properties dialog box can be select
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the same level. LDW provides a grap
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options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
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The check box labeled "Allow Repres
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Next you will see a tradeoff assess
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The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
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Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
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You can think of the importance num
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Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
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When you have selected two members
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("importance strength") that best d
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clicking on the "Initialize" button
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Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
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select the tradeoff you would like
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Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
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Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
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The curve shows how the utility fun
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The tradeoff graph has one measure
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When you select the option, you are
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the relative weights of the "Price"
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epresents a computer alternative wi
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Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
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e true even if the measure has a ve
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an analysis are included in exactly
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Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
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Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
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Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
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You can use the measure equivalents
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simulation for each alternative usi
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Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
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You can view a sensitivity table by
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Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
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Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
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In the dialog box, you are asked to
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Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
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Graph an Alternative The graph an a
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Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
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Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
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Other Options utility function for
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In addition, the Window menu contai
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In Depth Introduction This section
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A third example is a portfolio deci
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Each alternative has a raw score (c
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into more specific goals continues
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Measures in LDW You define measures
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computed measure levels to common u
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Converting the Measures to Common U
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Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
Page 263 and 264: For an example of the mid-level spl
Page 265 and 266: Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
Page 267 and 268: Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
Page 269 and 270: describe two alternatives: A, which
Page 271 and 272: with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
Page 273 and 274: In the original formulation of the
Page 275 and 276: 1 Equal Importance Two activities c
Page 277 and 278: You begin the process by selecting
Page 279 and 280: Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
Page 281 and 282: 0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
Page 283 and 284: ! You can use the "Smarter Method"
Page 285 and 286: allocates this weight before comput
Page 287 and 288: nth root of the product of the rati
Page 289 and 290: Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
Page 291 and 292: on the decision maker's response, L
Page 293 and 294: Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
Page 295 and 296: Now think of adjusting P so that th
Page 297 and 298: Another approach is to use the rang
Page 299 and 300: Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
Page 301 and 302: If a measure’s range changes, LDW
Page 303 and 304: Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
Page 305 and 306: Similarly, a single member can have
Page 307 and 308: chance having 160 hp (the most pref
Page 309 and 310: A probability of less than 0.5 for
Page 311 and 312: Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
Page 313: S E C T I O N Examples 10
Page 317 and 318: Figure 10-1. Goals hierarchy for co
Page 319 and 320: The next step was to assess prefere
Page 321 and 322: The first step was to identify a pr
Page 323 and 324: The definition of measures continue
Page 325 and 326: Construction Quality goal House Sel
Page 327 and 328: the task of evaluating potential re
Page 329 and 330: Many measures represented counts of
Page 331: Figure 10-11. Tradeoff "Bubble Diag
Page 335 and 336: Commands Summary AHP Menu This sect
Page 337 and 338: Edit::Add Lets you add a new object
Page 339 and 340: Help Menu File::Printer Setup View
Page 341 and 342: Main Menu Hierarchy::Show Assessmen
Page 343 and 344: Results Menu Preferences::Color Pre
Page 345 and 346: Review Menu The graph shows relativ
Page 347 and 348: SUF Menu Review::Weights::SUF Formu
Page 349: Window Menu your analysis. The many
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Page 355 and 356: Destructive Interaction Efficient F
Page 357 and 358: Measure Category Member Monte Carlo
Page 359 and 360: Nominal Utility Point Estimate k i=
Page 361 and 362: Sample Small k SUF willing to accep
Page 363: Utility Weight number generator and
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Bibliography This brief bibliograph
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Appendix A
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for all measures i except 1 and 2.
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Index I
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probabilistic ..............6 - 29
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