Logical Decisions - Classweb

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Figure 9-9. Example graph for tradeoff assessment Q: Look at the graph in Figure 9-9. The two labeled points represent trucks that you might like to buy. Assume that all of the other measures are at their most preferred levels. Alternative A has cost at its best level of $7000 but only has 80 horsepower, while alternative B has a cost of $15,000 but has the best horsepower at 160. If you had to choose between A and B, which one would you pick? A: Well, I don't really like either of these alternatives too much, but I'm on a pretty tight budget, so if I had to choose I guess I'd choose A because it's so much cheaper. Q: That makes sense. If I want you to choose B, I'll have to make B look better. How about if I keep B's horsepower at 160 but make it so that it only costs $7100? I'll label this new alternative B' (see Figure 9-10). 9-46 Section 9 -- In Depth
Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure 2 A: That's easy! I'd definitely take B' if I'd only have to pay $100 more to get all that extra horsepower. Q: OK, now I'll make it a little harder. Suppose I change B so that its cost is $10,000. I've marked this B''? A: Now its starting to get close, but I think $3000 is too much to pay for more horsepower if everything else is the same, so I'd pick A. Q: How about if I make B's cost $8500, as in point B'''? A: In that case I'd pick B''', but if you increase B to $9000 I'd have a hard time choosing. Q: You mean that if the price for B was a little bit below $9000 you'd pick B but if it was a little bit above $9000 you'd pick A? A: That seems like you're trying to put too fine a point on it, but I guess that around $9000 is where I'd start switching between A and B. Section 9 -- In Depth 9-47
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Logical Decisions Decision Support
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
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Assessing Interactions Between Meas
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Introduction Real decisions aren't
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S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
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"Logical Decisions". This program g
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Quick Start Introduction This secti
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Defining goals and measures. In LDW
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Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
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weights of the measures. All of the
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S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
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Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
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Now lets make sure the alternatives
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Assume you have decided that you wi
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Next we will enter the measures for
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Defining Preferences The alternativ
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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almost equally unacceptable, while
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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When you do this, the tradeoff grap
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1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
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8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
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Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
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Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
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Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
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You can see the completed introduct
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Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
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Probabilities There is a problem wi
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This information indicates that the
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A uniform distribution is defined b
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On the left is a list of the possib
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Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
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screen a large database for the alt
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9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
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commit to buying their truck before
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see that the rankings for all the a
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
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The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
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! Summary -- view a dialog box that
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structure like an organization char
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If you check the Show Assessment St
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saves it for later pasting. When yo
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You can create a new Matrix view by
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The quick entry view shows the alte
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Structuring Goals The goals in an L
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these two fields to describe each m
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the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
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! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
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Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
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Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
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pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
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Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
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Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
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measure utility functions for the g
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information as possible when you ch
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measures with categories require mu
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The "Reset" button deletes any asse
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You can change the shape of the cur
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Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
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very different from the average of
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Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
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You can, however, leave the assessm
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properties dialog box can be select
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the same level. LDW provides a grap
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options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
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The check box labeled "Allow Repres
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Next you will see a tradeoff assess
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The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
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Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
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You can think of the importance num
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Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
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When you have selected two members
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("importance strength") that best d
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clicking on the "Initialize" button
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Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
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select the tradeoff you would like
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Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
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Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
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The curve shows how the utility fun
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The tradeoff graph has one measure
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When you select the option, you are
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the relative weights of the "Price"
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epresents a computer alternative wi
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Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
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e true even if the measure has a ve
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an analysis are included in exactly
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Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
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Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
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Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
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You can use the measure equivalents
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simulation for each alternative usi
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Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
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You can view a sensitivity table by
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Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
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Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
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In the dialog box, you are asked to
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Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
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Graph an Alternative The graph an a
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Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
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Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
Page 241 and 242: Other Options utility function for
Page 243: In addition, the Window menu contai
Page 247 and 248: In Depth Introduction This section
Page 249 and 250: A third example is a portfolio deci
Page 251 and 252: Each alternative has a raw score (c
Page 253 and 254: into more specific goals continues
Page 255 and 256: Measures in LDW You define measures
Page 257 and 258: computed measure levels to common u
Page 259 and 260: Converting the Measures to Common U
Page 261 and 262: Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
Page 263 and 264: For an example of the mid-level spl
Page 265 and 266: Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
Page 267 and 268: Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
Page 269 and 270: describe two alternatives: A, which
Page 271 and 272: with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
Page 273 and 274: In the original formulation of the
Page 275 and 276: 1 Equal Importance Two activities c
Page 277 and 278: You begin the process by selecting
Page 279 and 280: Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
Page 281 and 282: 0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
Page 283 and 284: ! You can use the "Smarter Method"
Page 285 and 286: allocates this weight before comput
Page 287 and 288: nth root of the product of the rati
Page 289 and 290: Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
Page 291: on the decision maker's response, L
Page 295 and 296: Now think of adjusting P so that th
Page 297 and 298: Another approach is to use the rang
Page 299 and 300: Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
Page 301 and 302: If a measure’s range changes, LDW
Page 303 and 304: Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
Page 305 and 306: Similarly, a single member can have
Page 307 and 308: chance having 160 hp (the most pref
Page 309 and 310: A probability of less than 0.5 for
Page 311 and 312: Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
Page 313: S E C T I O N Examples 10
Page 316 and 317: the idea that other manufactures an
Page 318 and 319: The completed goals hierarchy is sh
Page 320 and 321: Buying a House The ranking results
Page 322 and 323: Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
Page 324 and 325: Overall goal Quality goal Costs goa
Page 326 and 327: The preference assessments were don
Page 328 and 329: Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
Page 330 and 331: ! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
Page 333: S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
Page 336 and 337: Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
Page 338 and 339: File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
Page 340 and 341: utility function” if the active g
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Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
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Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
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Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
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Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
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S E C T I O N Glossary 12
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Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
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LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
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MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
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Preference Set Probabilistic Level
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Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
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Bibliography B
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The classic reference on multiple m
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Appendix This appendix describes th
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= .125 Thus the weight for cost is
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Index adjusted AHP ................
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computing ................8 - 3 int
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