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Logical Decisions - Classweb

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On the other hand, the weights of the different measures, the<br />

interactions between them, and your attitudes towards risk are<br />

inherently subjective. Reasonable people can have disagreements<br />

on these subjects.<br />

You can't generally eliminate these subjective parts of a decision.<br />

LDW provides methods for logically dealing with both the<br />

objective and subjective parts of a decision while keeping them<br />

well separated.<br />

The types of decisions that you can address using LDW might<br />

best be described as “Choices.” A choice has the following<br />

characteristics:<br />

! You will select among a finite set of alternatives.<br />

! All of the choices are “feasible,” meaning that you could<br />

actually choose each one if you wanted.<br />

! No evaluation measures have levels that are<br />

unacceptable.<br />

! You need to consider at least two evaluation criteria<br />

simultaneously.<br />

! You will choose an entire alternative at a single time.<br />

That is, you won’t choose part of an alternative<br />

now and the rest of it later.<br />

Many decisions don’t meet one or more of these caveats, meaning<br />

that LDW may not be the best tool to analyze them.<br />

For example, optimization problems such as the best mix of<br />

products to produce at an oil refinery have a practically infinite<br />

number of possible product mixes (alternatives). These types of<br />

problems are often addressed by tools such as linear<br />

programming.<br />

Another example is multi-stage decisions, such as a new product<br />

introduction. In these problems you might want to make a<br />

preliminary decision to do test marketing and then decide later<br />

about a full product rollout based on the test results. These types<br />

of problems are often analyzed with tools such as decision trees<br />

and influence diagrams.<br />

9-2 Section 9 -- In Depth

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