Logical Decisions - Classweb

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select the tradeoff you would like to modify. In some situations, it is possible to replace the selected tradeoff with the new tradeoff just assessed. If it is possible, LDW asks you if you would like to replace the old tradeoff with the new. If you retain the old tradeoff, there are several ways LDW can make the adjustments. The simplest way is to adjust the original tradeoff and make no changes to the other tradeoffs. This has the desired result of making the new tradeoff hold, but may have side effects of changing the relative weights of other measures. More complex adjustments are possible, which preserve as many of the original weights as possible while still making the consistency tradeoff hold. Thus, when you get to this stage of the consistency check, LDW shows you the picture in Figure 7-17. In this figure, the measures have been grouped according to those whose relative weights must be adjusted simultaneously. The circles in this figure represent the relative weights of the measures in the different sets. The lines connecting the circles represent one or more tradeoffs. In particular, the line connecting sets B and C represents the single tradeoff being adjusted. The two consistency check measures will be in sets B and C respectively. LDW gives you three options for adjusting these sets. ! Adjust Weights for All Sets. The tradeoff being adjusted is represented in the figure by the line connecting set B to set C. If only this tradeoff is changed, the weights of sets A and B will change in relation to sets C and D, but the relative weights of sets A and B and of sets C and D will not change. In terms of the picture, the size of the circles for sets A and B will become proportionally larger or smaller in relation to the circles for sets C and D. ! Adjust Weights for Set B Only. In this option LDW holds the relative weights of sets A, C and D constant, while it changes the relative weight of set B. To do this, LDW must adjust the tradeoff(s) connecting sets A and B and the tradeoff connecting sets B and C. In terms of the figure, the relative size of the circles for sets A, C and D will remain constant, while the circle for set B will get larger or smaller. 7-46 Section 7 -- Using LDW 2: Assessing
! Adjust Weights for Set C Only. This option is like the previous option, except that set C is the one that changes relative to the others. ! Cancel. This option aborts the consistency check process without making any changes. Figure 7-17. Options for consistency check adjustments. When you select an option, the program begins adjusting tradeoffs. For each tradeoff that LDW modifies, it shows you a screen displaying the original tradeoff and the proposed adjustment. You can accept or reject any of the proposed adjustments. When the adjustments have been completed, LDW shows you a graph with the effects of the adjustments, like that in Figure 7-18. There, the "Adjust Weights for Set B Only" option has been selected, and the circle for Set B has gotten larger while the circles for the other three sets have gotten proportionally smaller. Section 7 -- Using LDW 2: Assessing 7-47
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Logical Decisions Decision Support
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
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Assessing Interactions Between Meas
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Introduction Real decisions aren't
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S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
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"Logical Decisions". This program g
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Quick Start Introduction This secti
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Defining goals and measures. In LDW
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Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
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weights of the measures. All of the
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S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
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Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
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Now lets make sure the alternatives
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Assume you have decided that you wi
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Next we will enter the measures for
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Defining Preferences The alternativ
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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almost equally unacceptable, while
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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When you do this, the tradeoff grap
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1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
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8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
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Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
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Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
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Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
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You can see the completed introduct
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Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
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Probabilities There is a problem wi
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This information indicates that the
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A uniform distribution is defined b
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On the left is a list of the possib
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Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
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screen a large database for the alt
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9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
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commit to buying their truck before
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see that the rankings for all the a
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
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The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
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! Summary -- view a dialog box that
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structure like an organization char
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If you check the Show Assessment St
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saves it for later pasting. When yo
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You can create a new Matrix view by
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The quick entry view shows the alte
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Structuring Goals The goals in an L
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these two fields to describe each m
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the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
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! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
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Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
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Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
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pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
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Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
Page 114 and 115: Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
Page 117: S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
Page 120 and 121: measure utility functions for the g
Page 122 and 123: information as possible when you ch
Page 124 and 125: measures with categories require mu
Page 126 and 127: The "Reset" button deletes any asse
Page 128 and 129: You can change the shape of the cur
Page 130 and 131: Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
Page 132 and 133: very different from the average of
Page 134 and 135: Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
Page 136 and 137: You can, however, leave the assessm
Page 138 and 139: properties dialog box can be select
Page 140 and 141: the same level. LDW provides a grap
Page 142 and 143: options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
Page 144 and 145: The check box labeled "Allow Repres
Page 146 and 147: Next you will see a tradeoff assess
Page 148 and 149: The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
Page 150 and 151: Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
Page 152 and 153: You can think of the importance num
Page 154 and 155: Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
Page 156 and 157: When you have selected two members
Page 158 and 159: ("importance strength") that best d
Page 160 and 161: clicking on the "Initialize" button
Page 162 and 163: Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
Page 166 and 167: Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
Page 169 and 170: Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
Page 171 and 172: The curve shows how the utility fun
Page 173 and 174: The tradeoff graph has one measure
Page 175 and 176: When you select the option, you are
Page 177 and 178: the relative weights of the "Price"
Page 179 and 180: epresents a computer alternative wi
Page 181 and 182: Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
Page 183 and 184: e true even if the measure has a ve
Page 185 and 186: an analysis are included in exactly
Page 187 and 188: Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
Page 189 and 190: Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
Page 191 and 192: Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
Page 193 and 194: You can use the measure equivalents
Page 195 and 196: simulation for each alternative usi
Page 197 and 198: Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
Page 199 and 200: You can view a sensitivity table by
Page 201 and 202: Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
Page 203 and 204: Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
Page 205 and 206: In the dialog box, you are asked to
Page 207 and 208: Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
Page 209 and 210: Graph an Alternative The graph an a
Page 211 and 212: Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
Page 213 and 214: Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
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Other Options utility function for
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In addition, the Window menu contai
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In Depth Introduction This section
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A third example is a portfolio deci
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Each alternative has a raw score (c
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into more specific goals continues
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Measures in LDW You define measures
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computed measure levels to common u
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Converting the Measures to Common U
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Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
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For an example of the mid-level spl
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Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
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Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
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describe two alternatives: A, which
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with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
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In the original formulation of the
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1 Equal Importance Two activities c
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You begin the process by selecting
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Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
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0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
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! You can use the "Smarter Method"
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allocates this weight before comput
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nth root of the product of the rati
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Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
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on the decision maker's response, L
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Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
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Now think of adjusting P so that th
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Another approach is to use the rang
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Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
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If a measure’s range changes, LDW
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Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
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Similarly, a single member can have
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chance having 160 hp (the most pref
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A probability of less than 0.5 for
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Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
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S E C T I O N Examples 10
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the idea that other manufactures an
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The completed goals hierarchy is sh
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Buying a House The ranking results
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Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
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Overall goal Quality goal Costs goa
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The preference assessments were don
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Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
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! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
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S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
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Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
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File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
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utility function” if the active g
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Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
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Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
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Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
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Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
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S E C T I O N Glossary 12
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Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
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LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
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MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
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Preference Set Probabilistic Level
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Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
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Bibliography B
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The classic reference on multiple m
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Appendix This appendix describes th
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= .125 Thus the weight for cost is
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Index adjusted AHP ................
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computing ................8 - 3 int
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