Logical Decisions - Classweb

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Set a Small k. The Enter Small k option lets you directly enter the Small k (scaling constant) for an active member. Defining one small k lets LDW compute the other small ks for the goal based on the weight assessments. When you select this option, LDW asks you to choose an active member and then to enter the small k for that member. If you enter a small k smaller than the one that would have been computed based on the weight assessments alone, LDW will define a MUF formula that shows destructive interaction. Entering a small k larger than the one that would have been computed based on the weight assessments alone will result in a MUF formula that shows constructive interaction. Product of Utilities. This option tells LDW to compute the active goal’s utility as the product of the utilities of its members. No further assessment is needed. In fact, no further weight assessment is needed either, since no scaling constants are needed when multiplying utilities. All the members will effectively have equal weights. Any weight assessments done for the goal will be ignored. Products of utilities are useful in situations where you want to treat the goal members like probabilities and the goal utility like the joint probability of all of the members. Products of utilities are also useful when you want to combine a “quality” measure with a “quantity” measure. An example might be measuring health care services by the number of people served and the quality of service. If the either number of people served is 0 or the quality of service is 0 then the overall health services score should also be 0. Multiplying the utilities achieves this result. Interactions When Directly Entering Weights The "Direct Entry" weight assessment method lets you directly enter the small k (scaling constant) for each active member. If you select the "Interactions Computed Directly" interactions assessment method, you can use the scaling constants you enter to directly define interactions. The small ks must to be between zero and one, but they do not have to sum to one. Small ks that sum to 1.0 imply an additive 7-44 Section 7 -- Using LDW 2: Assessing
MUF formula, meaning that the active members will not interact. Small ks that do not sum to one, imply a multiplicative formula, meaning that there will be interactions between the active members. Small ks that sum to less than one show destructive interaction, while small ks that sum to more than one show constructive interaction. Printing Questionnaires The Assess::Print Questionnaire option lets you print a copy any of LDW's preference assessment screens. This lets you obtain a hard copy of the preference assessment question(s) currently being posed by LDW. You can then distribute the questionnaire to participants in the study who may not be available for direct questioning. When you select this option, LDW displays a copy of the of the currently displayed assessment screen. Any assessment edit boxes on the screen are replaced by underlines. Questionnaires for AHP assessment screens have all possible pairs in the matrix in a format that lets users graphically indicate relative importances. Consistency Checks The Assess::Consistency Checks option lets you compute the tradeoff implied between any two measures. You can also revise the existing tradeoffs if the computed tradeoff does not look reasonable. You can only make these adjustments if you have used the "tradeoffs" weight assessment method for all goals with a MUF. When you select this option, LDW asks you to select two measures. The program computes and displays a tradeoff between the two selected measures implied by the current MUF. LDW then asks you if you would like to adjust this tradeoff. If you say yes, you will use the assessment procedure from the Assess::Weights::Tradeoffs option to identify a new tradeoff between the selected measures. This procedure will result in two new simplified alternatives involving the two selected measures that you should prefer equally, but that have different utilities on the current MUF. To make the equally preferred alternatives in the new tradeoff have the same utility, you must modify an existing tradeoff. The program identifies all of the existing tradeoffs that could influence the new tradeoff and displays them. LDW asks you to Section 7 -- Using LDW 2: Assessing 7-45
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Logical Decisions Decision Support
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
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Assessing Interactions Between Meas
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Introduction Real decisions aren't
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S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
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"Logical Decisions". This program g
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Quick Start Introduction This secti
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Defining goals and measures. In LDW
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Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
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weights of the measures. All of the
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S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
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Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
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Now lets make sure the alternatives
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Assume you have decided that you wi
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Next we will enter the measures for
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Defining Preferences The alternativ
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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almost equally unacceptable, while
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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When you do this, the tradeoff grap
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1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
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8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
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Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
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Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
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Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
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You can see the completed introduct
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Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
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Probabilities There is a problem wi
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This information indicates that the
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A uniform distribution is defined b
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On the left is a list of the possib
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Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
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screen a large database for the alt
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9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
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commit to buying their truck before
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see that the rankings for all the a
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
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The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
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! Summary -- view a dialog box that
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structure like an organization char
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If you check the Show Assessment St
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saves it for later pasting. When yo
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You can create a new Matrix view by
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The quick entry view shows the alte
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Structuring Goals The goals in an L
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these two fields to describe each m
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the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
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! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
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Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
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Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
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pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
Page 112 and 113: Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
Page 114 and 115: Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
Page 117: S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
Page 120 and 121: measure utility functions for the g
Page 122 and 123: information as possible when you ch
Page 124 and 125: measures with categories require mu
Page 126 and 127: The "Reset" button deletes any asse
Page 128 and 129: You can change the shape of the cur
Page 130 and 131: Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
Page 132 and 133: very different from the average of
Page 134 and 135: Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
Page 136 and 137: You can, however, leave the assessm
Page 138 and 139: properties dialog box can be select
Page 140 and 141: the same level. LDW provides a grap
Page 142 and 143: options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
Page 144 and 145: The check box labeled "Allow Repres
Page 146 and 147: Next you will see a tradeoff assess
Page 148 and 149: The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
Page 150 and 151: Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
Page 152 and 153: You can think of the importance num
Page 154 and 155: Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
Page 156 and 157: When you have selected two members
Page 158 and 159: ("importance strength") that best d
Page 160 and 161: clicking on the "Initialize" button
Page 164 and 165: select the tradeoff you would like
Page 166 and 167: Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
Page 169 and 170: Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
Page 171 and 172: The curve shows how the utility fun
Page 173 and 174: The tradeoff graph has one measure
Page 175 and 176: When you select the option, you are
Page 177 and 178: the relative weights of the "Price"
Page 179 and 180: epresents a computer alternative wi
Page 181 and 182: Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
Page 183 and 184: e true even if the measure has a ve
Page 185 and 186: an analysis are included in exactly
Page 187 and 188: Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
Page 189 and 190: Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
Page 191 and 192: Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
Page 193 and 194: You can use the measure equivalents
Page 195 and 196: simulation for each alternative usi
Page 197 and 198: Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
Page 199 and 200: You can view a sensitivity table by
Page 201 and 202: Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
Page 203 and 204: Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
Page 205 and 206: In the dialog box, you are asked to
Page 207 and 208: Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
Page 209 and 210: Graph an Alternative The graph an a
Page 211 and 212: Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
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Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
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Other Options utility function for
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In addition, the Window menu contai
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In Depth Introduction This section
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A third example is a portfolio deci
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Each alternative has a raw score (c
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into more specific goals continues
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Measures in LDW You define measures
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computed measure levels to common u
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Converting the Measures to Common U
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Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
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For an example of the mid-level spl
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Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
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Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
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describe two alternatives: A, which
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with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
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In the original formulation of the
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1 Equal Importance Two activities c
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You begin the process by selecting
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Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
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0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
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! You can use the "Smarter Method"
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allocates this weight before comput
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nth root of the product of the rati
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Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
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on the decision maker's response, L
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Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
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Now think of adjusting P so that th
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Another approach is to use the rang
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Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
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If a measure’s range changes, LDW
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Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
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Similarly, a single member can have
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chance having 160 hp (the most pref
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A probability of less than 0.5 for
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Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
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S E C T I O N Examples 10
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the idea that other manufactures an
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The completed goals hierarchy is sh
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Buying a House The ranking results
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Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
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Overall goal Quality goal Costs goa
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The preference assessments were don
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Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
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! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
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S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
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Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
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File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
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utility function” if the active g
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Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
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Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
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Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
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Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
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S E C T I O N Glossary 12
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Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
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LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
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MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
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Preference Set Probabilistic Level
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Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
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Bibliography B
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The classic reference on multiple m
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Appendix This appendix describes th
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= .125 Thus the weight for cost is
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Index adjusted AHP ................
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computing ................8 - 3 int
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