Logical Decisions - Classweb

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You can change the shape of the curve by moving the active point. You can move the active point in two ways. First, you can drag the active point with your mouse. You can drag the active point anywhere in the rectangle defined by the two endpoints of the active sub-range. LDW will attempt to fit a smooth (exponential) curve through the endpoints of the sub-range and the new active point. It is not always possible to do this if you move the active point near an endpoint. LDW will move the point if necessary to fit smooth curve. LDW shows the new location of the point in the edit boxes at the bottom of the window. You can also move the active point by changing the values in the two edit boxes. The box on the left contains the level for the active point and the box on the right contains its utility. If you enter a new value for either of these numbers, LDW will update the location of the active point in the graph and will draw a new SUF curve through it. You must press Enter to let LDW know when you have finished changing a number in one of these boxes. Splitting a Sub-Range. You can split a sub-range into two parts using the SUF::Split Range option. When you select this option, LDW will split the active sub-range into two sub-ranges at the active point. The active point will become the highest level of one sub-range and the lowest level of the other. LDW will set the SUF curves for the two new sub-ranges to straight lines. Changing the Active Point. Two types of points can be the active point -- points that define the midpoint of a sub-range and points that define an endpoint of a sub-range. When you select the midpoint of a sub-range for the active point, LDW highlights the entire sub-range in green. When you select an endpoint for the active point, LDW highlights just that point in green. You can make a point active by clicking on it with your mouse. Or, you can use the Left and Right-Arrow keys to move the active point between adjacent midpoints and endpoints. Combining Two Sub Ranges. You can combine two sub-ranges using the SUF::Delete Split Point option. Before you can select this option you must make the endpoint that joins the two subranges the active point. 7-10 Section 7 -- Using LDW 2: Assessing
When you select the SUF::Delete Split Point option, LDW combines the two ranges and adjusts the SUF curve for the new (combined) sub-range to pass through the active point. The active point becomes the midpoint for the combined sub-range. Moving an Endpoint. You can move an active endpoint of a subrange in the same ways you can move a sub-range's midpoint. You can move the point by dragging it with your mouse. You can also enter new values for the point's level and utility in the edit boxes at the bottom of the SUF assessment window. You can move an endpoint anywhere in the rectangle defined by the two closest endpoints on the horizontal axis and the zero and one utility points on the vertical axis. You can raise or lower the endpoints of the entire measure range but you can't move them horizontally. This ability to move the endpoints of a measure's range lets you define SUF curves with their most preferred or least preferred levels in the middle of a measure's range instead of at the ends. See page 7-14 for more details on non-monotonic SUFs. When you move an endpoint, LDW initializes the SUF curves for the adjacent sub-ranges to straight lines. Initializing a Sub-Range. You can reset the SUF curve for the active sub-range by selecting the SUF::Reset Range option. When you select this option, LDW resets the SUF curve for the subrange to a straight line. Formal Methods of Setting a Point’s Utility. Up till now, there has been no discussion of how to assign a utility to a particular level. LDW provides two methods for doing this by posing preference questions to the decision maker. The “Utility” method asks the decision maker to compare hypothetical certain and uncertain outcomes. The “Value” method asks the decision maker to identify the point that is preferentially halfway between two endpoints. Assessing Utility. You can use the SUF::Assess Utility option to assess the utility of the active point with a probability question. When you select this option, LDW displays the screen shown in Figure 7-4. This screen compares a certain outcome (labeled A) with a lottery (or uncertain outcome, labeled B). A and B represent simplified hypothetical alternatives that differ only on a single measure. Section 7 -- Using LDW 2: Assessing 7-11
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Logical Decisions Decision Support
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
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Assessing Interactions Between Meas
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Introduction Real decisions aren't
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S E C T I O N Requirements and Inst
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"Logical Decisions". This program g
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Quick Start Introduction This secti
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Defining goals and measures. In LDW
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Figure 3-1. The SUF for "Years of E
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weights of the measures. All of the
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S E C T I O N Basic Tutorial 4
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Figure 4-1. Tutorial overview. 4-2
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Now lets make sure the alternatives
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Assume you have decided that you wi
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Next we will enter the measures for
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Defining Preferences The alternativ
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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almost equally unacceptable, while
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1. Select the Assess::Common Units
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When you do this, the tradeoff grap
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1. Select "Performance" and "Price"
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8. Click on the "Equal" button to t
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Figure 4-11. Display generated by R
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Figure 4-13. Overall ranking for tr
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Figure 4-15. Graph showing sensitiv
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You can see the completed introduct
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Advanced Tutorial This tutorial sec
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Probabilities There is a problem wi
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This information indicates that the
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A uniform distribution is defined b
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On the left is a list of the possib
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Figure 5-2. Example of Results::Unc
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screen a large database for the alt
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9. LDW will ask if you want to appe
Page 77 and 78: commit to buying their truck before
Page 79 and 80: see that the rankings for all the a
Page 81: S E C T I O N Using LDW 1: Structur
Page 84 and 85: The Edit::Insert option. The Insert
Page 86 and 87: ! Summary -- view a dialog box that
Page 88 and 89: structure like an organization char
Page 90 and 91: If you check the Show Assessment St
Page 92 and 93: saves it for later pasting. When yo
Page 94 and 95: You can create a new Matrix view by
Page 96 and 97: The quick entry view shows the alte
Page 98 and 99: Structuring Goals The goals in an L
Page 100 and 101: these two fields to describe each m
Page 102 and 103: the hierarchy. In the Matrix view,
Page 104 and 105: ! Point Estimate -- use a single nu
Page 106 and 107: Figure 6-12. Example of a measure l
Page 108 and 109: Figure 6-14. Example of a measure l
Page 110 and 111: pass, LDW replaces each probabilist
Page 112 and 113: Figure 6-17. Dialog box for definin
Page 114 and 115: Figure 6-18. Measure Category Dialo
Page 117: S E C T I O N Using LDW 2: Assessin
Page 120 and 121: measure utility functions for the g
Page 122 and 123: information as possible when you ch
Page 124 and 125: measures with categories require mu
Page 126 and 127: The "Reset" button deletes any asse
Page 130 and 131: Figure 7-4. Utility Assessment Scre
Page 132 and 133: very different from the average of
Page 134 and 135: Figure 7-6. Assessment matrix for A
Page 136 and 137: You can, however, leave the assessm
Page 138 and 139: properties dialog box can be select
Page 140 and 141: the same level. LDW provides a grap
Page 142 and 143: options in the Hierarchy menu to ad
Page 144 and 145: The check box labeled "Allow Repres
Page 146 and 147: Next you will see a tradeoff assess
Page 148 and 149: The Tradeoff::Use Alternatives to S
Page 150 and 151: Figure 7-13. Example of Direct Entr
Page 152 and 153: You can think of the importance num
Page 154 and 155: Figure 7-15. Assessment Screen for
Page 156 and 157: When you have selected two members
Page 158 and 159: ("importance strength") that best d
Page 160 and 161: clicking on the "Initialize" button
Page 162 and 163: Set a Small k. The Enter Small k op
Page 164 and 165: select the tradeoff you would like
Page 166 and 167: Figure 7-18. Effects of consistency
Page 169 and 170: Using LDW 3: Reviewing Results Intr
Page 171 and 172: The curve shows how the utility fun
Page 173 and 174: The tradeoff graph has one measure
Page 175 and 176: When you select the option, you are
Page 177 and 178: the relative weights of the "Price"
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epresents a computer alternative wi
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Figure 8-11. Example of Review::Ass
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e true even if the measure has a ve
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an analysis are included in exactly
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Graph Weights The Graph Weights dis
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Figure 8-16. Results::Rank Alternat
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Figure 8-18. Dialog box for Results
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You can use the measure equivalents
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simulation for each alternative usi
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Sensitivity Graphs Sensitivity grap
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You can view a sensitivity table by
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Figure 8-28. Example of Results::Sc
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Figure 8-30. Example of Results::Sc
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In the dialog box, you are asked to
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Figure 8-34. Dialog box for Results
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Graph an Alternative The graph an a
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Figure 8-38. Example of Results::Gr
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Finally, the two radio buttons on t
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Figure 8-43. Example of Results::Co
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Printing and Saving Windows You can
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The dialog box will show you the fi
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Figure 8-45. Dialog box for Edit::C
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Changing the range for utility. You
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Figure 8-50. Dialog box for Prefere
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the current color for that type of
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copies the selected objects to the
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analysis with the skeleton analysis
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Figure 8-55. Dialog box for File::I
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the other measures. The measure nam
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The idea of the Import Structure op
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Next, LDW asks you if it should app
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Other Options utility function for
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In addition, the Window menu contai
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In Depth Introduction This section
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A third example is a portfolio deci
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Each alternative has a raw score (c
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into more specific goals continues
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Measures in LDW You define measures
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computed measure levels to common u
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Converting the Measures to Common U
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Figure 9-2. Example of linear (stra
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For an example of the mid-level spl
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Since U(L0) = U(80) = 0 and U(L1) =
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Figure 9-5. Summary of SUF assessme
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describe two alternatives: A, which
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with equal chances of 40 and 70 per
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In the original formulation of the
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1 Equal Importance Two activities c
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You begin the process by selecting
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Figure 9-7. Effects of goals with a
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0.5. Then the weight assigned to "P
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! You can use the "Smarter Method"
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allocates this weight before comput
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nth root of the product of the rati
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Figure 9-8. Summary of estimating t
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on the decision maker's response, L
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Figure 9-10. MUF assessment figure
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Now think of adjusting P so that th
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Another approach is to use the rang
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Figure 9-12. Quantitative range vs.
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If a measure’s range changes, LDW
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Figure 9-14 is an example of the ov
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Similarly, a single member can have
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chance having 160 hp (the most pref
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A probability of less than 0.5 for
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Interpreting the Ranking Results LD
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S E C T I O N Examples 10
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the idea that other manufactures an
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The completed goals hierarchy is sh
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Buying a House The ranking results
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Figure 10-5. Goals hierarchy for bu
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Overall goal Quality goal Costs goa
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The preference assessments were don
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Figure 10-9. Goals hierarchy for re
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! Noise, ! Agricultural Impacts, an
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S E C T I O N Commands Summary 11
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Assess Menu Edit Menu The Assess me
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File Menu Edit::Insert Lets you add
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utility function” if the active g
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Matrix Menu ! Hierarchy -- options
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Results::Dynamic Sensitivity See th
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Review::Compute Utilities Compute t
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Tradeoff Menu View Menu LDW display
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S E C T I O N Glossary 12
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Common Units Certainty Equivalent C
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LDW File Level Lottery Measure assi
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MUF MUF Formula See also: Alternati
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Preference Set Probabilistic Level
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Tradeoff Trial program decides whic
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Bibliography B
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The classic reference on multiple m
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Appendix This appendix describes th
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= .125 Thus the weight for cost is
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Index adjusted AHP ................
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computing ................8 - 3 int
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