Logical Decisions - Classweb

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Introduction Real decisions aren't simple. Uncertainties, complicated alternatives, and varied preferences can make it hard to choose what to do. Once you decide, it may be hard to explain your choice. <strong>Logical</strong> <strong>Decisions</strong>® for Windows (LDW) helps you evaluate your decisions. You define alternatives and variables to describe them. Next, LDW helps you formulate your preferences about the variables and uses the information to rank your alternatives. You can rank your alternatives and create displays that clarify the rankings. Afterwards, the results should seem obvious, because the process helps you to think carefully about the choices and your preferences. LDW gives you great flexibility in modeling your decisions. You define the alternatives and describe them in the way that makes the best sense to you. If your preferences are complex, or your choices have uncertainties, LDW can handle them. LDW uses powerful methods from the field of Decision Analysis to help you quantify your preferences. LDW's interactive features let you evaluate alternatives instantly once you have quantified the alternatives and your preferences. At the heart of LDW are sophisticated methods for assessing preferences. LDW provides a variety of preference assessment methods ranging from very simple methods to the "gold standard" of pairwise tradeoffs. With LDW you can select the method you feel most comfortable with. LDW provides many features not found in other ranking programs: ! Freedom in defining evaluation measures. Scales can be discrete or continuous, increasing or decreasing, numeric or descriptive. There are no limits on the range or number of scale points you can have. ! No limits on the number of alternatives and evaluation measures you can have. Section 1 -- Introduction 1-1
Page 1 and 2: Logical Decisions Decision Support
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents Table of Contents
Page 5 and 6: Assessing Weights with Weight Ratio
Page 7: Assessing Interactions Between Meas
Page 12 and 13: ! Describe your alternatives using
Page 15 and 16: Requirements and Installation Equip
Page 17: S E C T I O N Quick Start 3
Page 20 and 21: ! Assess your preferences, ! Rank t
Page 22 and 23: Storing your preference information
Page 24 and 25: continues aggregating lower level g
Page 26 and 27: anked the alternatives and reviewed
Page 29 and 30: Introductory Tutorial This introduc
Page 31 and 32: Initial Steps Before you can begin
Page 33 and 34: So, for this example, you only need
Page 35 and 36: 1. Enter 15000 into the “Most Pre
Page 37 and 38: Figure 4-2. Completed Goals Hierarc
Page 39 and 40: 3. Click on the “Structure” tab
Page 41 and 42: First we will move the current mid-
Page 43 and 44: 1. Press the left arrow key to "wra
Page 45 and 46: of the members of these two goals.
Page 47 and 48: Assume that you prefer A and B equa
Page 49 and 50: 6. Type 20000 and press Enter to se
Page 51 and 52: 10. Click on the "Done" button to r
Page 53 and 54: “Styling” measure, with most we
Page 55 and 56: Figure 4-14. Sample bar graph creat
Page 57 and 58: The graph shown in Figure 4-16 list
Page 59: S E C T I O N Advanced Tutorial 5
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Truck Fuel Economy City Highway (mp
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Adding a Measure for Resale Value.
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9. Enter 100 in the edit box for "P
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1. In the Matrix view, double-click
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You can see the simulation results
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Figure 5-3. Example of Results::Alt
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1. Double click on the cell for "Pr
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Suppose you have a feeling that the
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percent show destructive interactio
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5-20 Section 5 -- Advanced Tutorial
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Using LDW 1: Structuring Introducti
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The Edit::Paste option. The Paste o
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Figure 6-1. Dialog box for View::Su
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The radio buttons below the goals l
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! Show Shadows -- toggle the displa
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takes place. The Edit::Cut option a
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! Define Probability -- this option
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the Matrix view, double clicking it
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The "Members" list is a list of all
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When you check the "Use Labels" box
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In particular, the levels you enter
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When you select this option, LDW re
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Figure 6-13. Example of a measure l
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When you select this option, LDW as
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to any particular measure level. A
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Adding a Measure Category. You can
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Figure 6-19. Example evaluation for
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Using LDW 2: Assessing Introduction
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Adding a Preference Set. You can ad
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Overview of Preference Assessments
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a constant change in utility. Linea
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The options associated with this as
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When you select the SUF::Delete Spl
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measure (in terms of expected value
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1. If you have made any changes to
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Figure 7-7. Dialog box for defining
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! Identify Outliers — Highlights
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Alternative HD size Utility Mail Or
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Assessing Weights The weights in a
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method uses a geometric approach to
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Figure 7-11. Assess tradeoffs dialo
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improving its level on the second m
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levels for the two members in the t
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dialog box. If you click "Redo", LD
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The up and down arrow buttons. Move
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Then identify the member you would
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Representatives are allowed for sub
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tradeoffs based on the AHP weights
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is defined, an additive MUF formula
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MUF formula, meaning that the activ
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! Adjust Weights for Set C Only. Th
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S E C T I O N Using LDW 3: Displayi
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Each of these displays can be selec
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After you press Enter, LDW will dis
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were done against price. When you s
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Figure 8-6. Example of Review::Trad
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with the highest overall utility. T
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you select this option, LDW will di
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Figure 8-12. Example of Review::Wei
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Figure 8-13.Example of Review::Weig
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Figure 8-14. Example of Review::Wei
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! Rank Alternatives ! Stacked Bar R
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Figure 8-17. Example of Results::Ra
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Figure 8-19. Example of Results::St
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Figure 8-21. Dialog box for Results
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In the window, the upper pane shows
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Figure 8-25. Example of Results::Se
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most benefit for your costs. You sh
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have significance, they just make i
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Cutoff Summary The Results::Cutoff
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you will see. If you select the "Sh
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LDW displays utilities greater than
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You can view an alternatives compar
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individual contributions can be gre
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Copying Graphics Images to the Clip
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! Change the display for the common
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The "Number of Trials" edit box con
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Figure 8-49. Dialog box for Prefere
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than its original size. Zoom percen
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Modifying individual graphic object
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Figure 8-53. Text font dialog box.
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Loading an LDW Analysis You can loa
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! Update and Append -- both modify
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When you have selected the correct
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then click the field to use to upda
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The option then proceeds automatica
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Figure 8-60. Preferences::Automatic
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S E C T I O N In Depth 9
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On the other hand, the weights of t
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Identifying Alternatives Alternativ
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Identifying and Defining Alternativ
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of the hierarchy be made up of eval
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The default is that measure levels
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categories' sites. For example, the
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objective measure levels and the mo
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no intrinsically correct shape for
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this truck B, and call the change f
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Figure 9-4. SUF curve resulting fro
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Figure 9-5 summarizes the process o
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other measures, including cost, and
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The second parameter, local risk av
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Each cell in the matrix represents
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always a complete set of utilities
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The utility of an alternative on th
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Different preference assessment met
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similar but more complicated if the
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The first member to be improved is
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decision maker to state importance
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It should be easier for a decision
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Figure 9-8 shows how a tradeoff can
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Figure 9-9. Example graph for trade
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This dialogue let us establish a tr
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Changing Weight Assessment Methods
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Figure 9-11. Extreme example of the
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Thus, proportionally increasing the
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The level of big K can result in se
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levels on the two measures are requ
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A: I could see where some people mi
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A: Wow, that's pretty complicated.
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If you enter a small k greater than
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9-66 Section 9 -- In Depth
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Examples Introduction This section
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Figure 10-1. Goals hierarchy for co
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The next step was to assess prefere
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The first step was to identify a pr
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The definition of measures continue
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Construction Quality goal House Sel
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the task of evaluating potential re
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Many measures represented counts of
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Figure 10-11. Tradeoff "Bubble Diag
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Commands Summary AHP Menu This sect
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Edit::Add Lets you add a new object
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Help Menu File::Printer Setup View
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Main Menu Hierarchy::Show Assessmen
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Results Menu Preferences::Color Pre
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Review Menu The graph shows relativ
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SUF Menu Review::Weights::SUF Formu
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Window Menu your analysis. The many
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Glossary Active Member Alternative
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Destructive Interaction Efficient F
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Measure Category Member Monte Carlo
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Nominal Utility Point Estimate k i=
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Sample Small k SUF willing to accep
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Utility Weight number generator and
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Bibliography This brief bibliograph
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Appendix A
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for all measures i except 1 and 2.
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Index I
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probabilistic ..............6 - 29
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