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Figure 1: Sea surface height (SSH) simulated by the icosahedral ocean model OFIM. Grey/purple shades indicate lowest/highest SSH values. Surface currents tend to follow SSH contours. Dominant features are the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, flowing west to east, and the clockwise-rotating gyres in the South Atlantic and Southern Indian Ocean. Also shown are the grid cells of the icosahedral grid. Milestone 2. Progress toward construction of an ESRL Earth system model by coupling an icosahedral formulation of the global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (currently under development within ESRL) with the global Flow-following finite-volume Icosahedral atmospheric Model (FIM) on an identical horizontal grid. Test this coupled model on individual cases, and in real time if adequate computing resources and initial data are available. Development of the icosahedral ocean circulation model OFIM (Oceanic Flow-following finite-volume Icosahedral Model) has reached a point where, when coupled to its atmospheric counterpart FIM, it produces acceptable global ocean state solutions on multiyear time scales. OFIM mimics FIM in using constant density layers in the ocean interior. Thermohaline coupling with the atmosphere is mediated by two nonisopycnic coordinate layers representing a turbulent mixed layer. With the two submodels sharing the same horizontal mesh, information exchange is straightforward. Emphasis at this point is on validation of air-sea fluxes calculated by FIM with an eye on drift in subsurface stratification. Among the ocean processes affecting global sea surface temperature—gyre-scale horizontal heat transport, surface mixed layer de- and entrainment and global meridional overturning (‘conveyor belt’)—our present focus is on the mixed layer and its role in properly maintaining the permanent thermocline. A milestone not yet reached is simulation of the ENSO (El Nino, La Nina) cycle. Soon to be added is a sea ice model to end the present dependence on observed ice coverage. GSD-03VerificationTechniquesfortheEvaluation ofAviationWeatherForecasts FEDERAL LEAD: JENNIFER MAHONEY CIRES LEAD: ANDREW LOUGHE NOAA Goal 3: Weather and Water Project Goal: Design and evaluate new verification approaches and tools that will provide information about the quality of aviation forecasts and their value to aviation decision makers. Milestone 1. Develop a verification plan for assessing the 96 CIRES Annual Report 2011 quality of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance Product version 3, and the Graphical Turbulence Guidance Product Nowcast. Due to changes in priorities at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Product version 2.5 evaluation has been extended, while the GTG version 3 and GTG Product Nowcast evaluations have been pushed back. The GTG version 2.5 product incorporated a new observing platform (Eddy Dissipation Rate, EDR). As a result, in preparation for the evaluation, it was necessary to study the EDR reports and develop techniques for utilizing them in the evaluation. These new techniques were then incorporated into the evaluation of the GTG version 2.5 product. That evaluation has been completed, with the final presentation and publication of the official report to occur early in the next fiscal year. Milestone 2. Provide assessment report summarizing the findings from an evaluation of the Current Icing Potential and the Forecast Icing Potential. A verification plan for the Current Icing Potential (CIP) and Forecast Icing Potential (FIP) is underway. The plan focuses on a comparison of the current CIP and FIP algorithms run by the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) with new versions of CIP and FIP using the new Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) Rapid Refresh. Additionally, new techniques are being developed to utilize satellite data for icing detection and verification. A report is forthcoming in late September 2011. Milestone 3. Provide a comprehensive assessment of the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) forecast algorithm in support of the Federal Aviation Administration FY10 demonstration. Completed the 2010 assessment of the real-time automated convective weather forecast product known as CoSPA and presented it to both the Convective Weather Product Development Team and to a Technical Review Panel from the Federal Aviation Administration. Two separate reports were written to support this effort. In addition, a winter 2010 assessment of CoSPA was completed, which used results from the summer 2010 study as a baseline. This was also presented to FAA management. A written report of the 2010 winter study will accompany the 2011 CoSPA Assessment. GSD-05 Numerical Prediction Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) FEDERAL LEAD: ZOLTAN TOTH CIRES LEAD: LIGIA BERNARDET NOAA Goal 3: Weather and Water Project Goal: Transition new developments from research to operations in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolator (GSI) data assimilation system and the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) modeling system through the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC). Milestone 1. Upgrade the community Hurricane-Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) code to contain new developments used by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for the 2010 operational hurricane season and run extensive tests to assure that
the community HWRF is performing as well as operational HWRF, enabling a transition of the community code to NCEP for the 2011 hurricane season. The community HWRF model has been upgraded to contain the capabilities of the 2010 operational model and of the 2011 operational baseline (a starting point for developing the 2011 operational model). Extensive tests have been conducted to show that the forecasts produced with the community model have similar average forecast skill as those generated at NOAA NCEP; an exact match is not expected due to differences in computer platform. The results from these tests have been made available at http:// verif.rap.ucar.edu/eval/hwrf_hnr2_hr20/, where a final report is posted. This extensive test, which employed 1,190 cases from 53 storms of the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins for the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons, was the first comprehensive hurricane test conducted by the DTC, and was also used to qualify DTC’s functionally similar testing and evaluation infrastructure. The community code has been transitioned to be used at NCEP for the 2011 hurricane season, indicating that the research and operational communities are now using the same code base, which facilitates the transition of new developments to operations. Figure 1: Mean and 95% confidence intervals of tropical cyclone position errors (nautical miles) as a function of forecast lead time (hours) for two configurations of the 2011 baseline of the HWRF model. HNR2 (black) is configured from the community HWRF model and run by the DTC. HR20 (red) is a corresponding run done by NOAA/NCEP. Both configurations show that track errors increase linearly with time from near zero to over 250 nm at the five-day forecast. The forecasts from the two configurations are statistically indistinguishable, indicating that the operational model has been adequately ported to the community code repositories and qualifying the DTC functionally similar testing infrastructure. Milestone 2. Maintain the code repositories for Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Hurricane-Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) and provide user support for both codes (helpdesk, website, code distribution, and documentation). During the last year, the DTC has provided user support for both the HWRF model and the GSI. GSI and HWRF have more than 300 and 170 registered users, respectively. Approximately 30 questions are answered by the email helpdesk for each system every month. GSI v3 was released, and work has been done toward the HWRF v3.3a release planned for July 2011. The users’ guide, websites (http://www.dtcenter.org/com-GSI/users/ and http://www.dtcenter.org/HurrWRF/users/), case studies and tutorial instructions were updated for both systems. Tutorials for the HWRF and GSI systems were offered in April and June 2011, respectively. Maintenance of the community GSI and HWRF repositories continued to transition all operational upgrades to the community code and to incorporate the community code onto NOAA NCEP operations. This process ensures that the code used by the academic and operational communities remains connected, which facilitates transfer of new research to operations. Students and instructors of the April 2011 Hurricane WRF Tutorial. GSD-06 Environmental Information Systems FEDERAL LEAD: PATRICIA MILLER CIRES LEAD: LEON BENJAMIN NOAA Goal 3: Weather and Water Project Goal: Develop information systems that deliver atmospheric observation data and environmental products to users of weather, water and climate information. Milestone 1. Complete Final Operating Capability of the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) at the National Weather Service. MADIS ingests data files from NOAA data sources and non-NOAA data providers, decodes the data and then encodes all of the observational data into a common format with uniform observation units and time stamps. Qualitycontrol checks are conducted, and the integrated data sets are stored in the MADIS database with a series of flags indicating the quality of the observation from a variety of perspectives (e.g., temporal consistency and spatial consistency), or more precisely, a series of flags indicating the results of various quality-control checks. The completion of the Final Operating Capability (FOC) of MADIS at the National Weather Service (NWS) is in progress. Transition to the NWS includes three major milestones: start of transition (Sept. 15, 2008), Initial Operating Capability (IOC) (completed Sept. 30, 2010) and Full Operating Capability (FOC). At IOC MADIS has a primary system CIRES Annual Report 2011 97
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COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH
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2 CIRES Annual Report 2011 From the
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Executive Summary and Research High
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which is a learning community and m
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and community preparedness and disa
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10 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Year in
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Council of Fellows n Waleed Abdalat
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Organization The Cooperative Instit
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CREATING A DYNAMIC RESEARCH ENVIRON
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DAVID OONK/CIRES CIRES Director Kon
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CIRES Communications It has long be
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22 CIRES Annual Report 2011 People&
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Richard Armstrong The Glaciers and
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Roger Bilham Block Bounding Bookshe
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John Cassano Polar Climate and Mete
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Xinzhao Chu LIDAR Research Campaign
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Joost de Gouw Sources and Chemistry
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Lang Farmer Development of a Microi
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Baylor Fox-Kemper Improving Subgrid
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Craig Jones Understanding the Origi
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Peter Molnar Tibet and the Asian Mo
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David Noone A Modern Approach to Pa
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Judith Perlwitz Exploring Mechanism
Page 48 and 49: Balaji Rajagopalan with graduate st
Page 50 and 51: Mark C. Serreze Rapid Arctic Change
Page 52 and 53: Robert Sievers Innovative Vaccine D
Page 54 and 55: Margaret Tolbert Laboratory Studies
Page 56 and 57: Greg Tucker Is Climate Change Etche
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Page 66 and 67: Climate Diagnostics Center The miss
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Page 72 and 73: WESTERN WATER ASSESSMENT n Impacts
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Page 76 and 77: VISITING FELLOWS With partial spons
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Page 86 and 87: Figure 1: Simplified schematic show
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Phys., 10(10), 4795-4807, doi: 10.5
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of Arapaho Glacier, Front Range, Co
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to nutrients in streams and rivers
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Moritz, MA, TJ Moody, MA Krawchuk,
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with a first-guess approach, J. Geo
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stable water isotopes in climate mo
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G Keppel-Aleks, EA Kort, R Macatang
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Non-Refereed Publications, 2010 Ale
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and DZ Friday (2010), Digital eleva
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Refereed Journals in which CIRES Sc
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Honors and Awards, 2010 Abdalati, W
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Conferences, Workshops, Events, Pre
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170 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Append
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Acronyms 20CR Twentieth Century Rea
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ESRL Earth System Research Laborato
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MERRA Modern Era Retrospective-Anal
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SXI Solar X-ray Imager TES Total Em
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