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1. The spatial Figure distribution 2: The spatial of the distribution US EPA of National the U.S. EPA Emission National Emission Inventory 2005 NOx emissions (top) Inventory 2005 NOx emissions (top) and NO2 columns from the NASA OMI O2 columns from satellite the NASA (bottom) OMI over satellite the Texas domain (bottom) used over in this the study. Texas domain used in this study. and the private sector. CIERA 1 envisions an international community to catalyze emissions research by facilitating 1) the consistent, timely and transparent development of emissions inventories at all scales; 2) evaluations and analyses of emissions data sets; and 3) the exchange and communication of emissions information. In FY2011, the vision for CIERA was formulated, CIERA sponsored emissions research sessions at two major scientific conferences and the CIERA web portal began development. Product: Task 1: A manuscript describing the Texas emission study will be submitted to the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions in July 2011. Task 2: The CIERA web portal, http://ciera-air.org/, the virtual work space for CIERA activities, began develop- 94 CIRES Annual Report 2011 ment in FY11 and will continue to be built and expanded in the future. Milestone 3. Use measurements of aerosols and their precursors made during the 2006 Texas Air Quality Study field mission in conjunction with a state-of-the-art air quality forecast model to assess recent developments in the treatment of secondary organic aerosol formation and their impact on particulate matter (PM2.5) aerosol forecasts. Impact: This CIRES research contributes to improved forecasts of aerosol within air quality models and directly supports NOAA’s mission of having an operational national PM2.5 aerosol forecasting system by 2015. Because particulate matter (PM2.5) aerosol are a public health concern, NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) have made it a mission to deploy an operational national PM2.5 aerosol forecast system, much like the national ozone forecast system currently in place within NOAA/ NWS. Several forecast and research centers are developing PM2.5 forecast capabilities, such as the WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecast coupled with Chemistry) model within NOAA/ESRL. These models have undergone evaluation using observations from intensive field studies and surface PM2.5 network data, and have consistently demonstrated that forecasts of PM2.5 suffer from inaccuracies and biases that limit their usefulness. The most persistent forecast deficiency is the under-prediction of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). This work incorporates recent laboratory and theoretical advances in SOA formation to an accepted and welldocumented PM2.5 forecast model. A new SOA formation mechanism based on the Carnegie-Mellon Volatility Basis Set Approach is applied to the WRF/Chem model, and evaluated for summer 2006 using PM2.5 composition measurements from three national networks and observations from the Texas Air Quality Study. The results of this work were submitted as a report to NWS in March 2011, and the finished manuscript will be submitted in early August. Critical evaluations show the new SOA module compares well with available organic aerosol measurements and also improves PM2.5 forecasts. The model code will be submitted to the publicly accessible WRF model repository, and plans are in place to transfer the code to NWS for developmental testing at the national forecast center. Figure 3: Average organic aerosol concentration between Aug. 1 and Sept. 30, 2006, using Volatility Basis Set Approach within the NOAA/ESRL WRF/Chem model.
PSD-16RaindropSizeDistributions FEDERAL LEAD: TIMOTHY SCHNEIDER CIRES LEAD: CHRISTOPHER WILLIAMS NOAA Goal 3: Weather and Water Project Goal: Improve ground-based, airborne and space-borne radar rainfall estimates through increased understanding of the number and size of raindrops in precipitating cloud systems. Milestone 1. A vertical air motion estimation technique will be developed using collocated 50- and 920-MHz radar observations to isolate the vertical air motion resolved in the 50-MHz radar observations. These columnar dual-frequency vertical air motion estimates will provide reference measurements for simultaneous dual-Doppler scanning radar estimates. A dual-frequency profiler retrieval technique was developed that estimates the vertical air motion within precipitating cloud systems. The technique relies on using the ‘signal’ in one radar to mask out the ‘noise’ observed in another. In particular, the 50-MHz profiler can simultaneously observe the vertical air motion and the raindrop motion when precipitating clouds pass directly overhead. But the 920-MHz profiler is only sensitive to the raindrop motion. By combining the two measurements, the 920-MHz profiler signal is used to mask out the raindrop motion in the 50-MHz profiler observation. The resulting filtered 50-MHz profiler observation contains only the vertical air motion information. The dual-frequency profiler retrieval technique was applied to observations collected during the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE). The vertical air motions have been and are still being used by international and domestic researchers studying the dynamics of precipitating cloud systems. PSD-17EnvironmentalMonitoringandPrediction FEDERAL LEAD: GARY WICK CIRES LEAD: DARREN JACKSON NOAA Goal 3: Weather and Water Project Goal: Improve the performance of numerical weather and climate models through model process evaluation using data streams from focused observational campaigns and spaceborne measurements. Milestone 1. Assess the representation of water vapor content and transport in the new Flow-following finite-volume Icosohedral Model during wintertime precipitation events along the U.S. West Coast using satellite observations, and compare with that of other operational models. Efforts have focused on the development and validation of methods to compare the representation of water vapor content and transport between observations and model analysis and forecast fields. Atmospheric rivers are the primary manifestation of water vapor transport during wintertime precipitation events. An objective, automated tool for the identification and characterization of atmospheric river events in satellite observation and model forecast fields has been developed. The functionality of the technique was validated by comparing the objectively identified landfalling atmospheric rivers over five winter seasons with those identified visually in a climatology of landfalling events. The results demonstrated that the technique performed extremely well with a critical success index of 92.8 percent in identifying events. A publication describing the technique is now being completed. Initial application of the technique to comparisons of the frequency and intensity of atmospheric river events between observations and multiple forecast models suggest that the models do a good job in forecasting the occurrence of the events, but possibly overpredict their influence on land, particularly at longer lead times. Additional observations to directly assess the water vapor transport within three atmospheric river events were collected from the unmanned Global Hawk aircraft as part of the NOAA-led Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR) experiment. GSD-01NumericalWeatherPrediction FEDERAL LEAD: GEORG GRELL CIRES LEAD: CURTIS ALEXANDER NOAA Goal 3: Weather and Water Project Goal: Design and evaluate new approaches for improving regional-scale numerical weather forecasts, including forecasts of severe weather events. Milestone 1. Conduct and evaluate a summer 2010 and 2011 convection forecast exercise with other Aviation Weather Research Product Development Teams (Convective Weather, in particular), in which the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) run at convection-resolving resolution over the conterminous United States plays a dominant role. The goal of this exercise is to evaluate the potential effectiveness of the HRRR in predicting high-impact aviation weather, particularly convection, 3–12 hours in advance. The HRRR model output was used as a key input into a real-time automated convective weather forecast product known as CoSPA, which was used by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). During the summers of 2010 and 2011, the FAA conducted an operational performance evaluation of CoSPA to assess its impact on air traffic management decision-making. Additionally, the HRRR model forecasts have been provided to the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) for guidance in the production of a Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP). Prior to the summer 2010 season, the HRRR forecast domain was expanded to include the entire conterminous United States; the underlying Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version was updated to include the official version 3.2 release; and the forecast period was extended from 12 to 15 hours. Reliability of HRRR model runs has been maintained at about 95 percent for 2010/2011. Additional resources were implemented to improve the HRRR convective forecast guidance including an in-house multi-scale verification system and a parallel (shadow) HRRR model whereby impacts of model changes are assessed in both real-time and thru retrospective forecasts. Prior to the summer 2011 season, the parent forecast model for HRRR initialization was changed from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) to the Rapid Refresh (RR) and includes a more advanced data-assimilation system known as Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) along with a larger forecast domain covering North America. The larger domain reduces the negative impact of lateral boundaries and additional observations are now incorporated into the hourly RR analysis used by the HRRR. CIRES Annual Report 2011 95
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COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH
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2 CIRES Annual Report 2011 From the
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Executive Summary and Research High
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which is a learning community and m
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and community preparedness and disa
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10 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Year in
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Council of Fellows n Waleed Abdalat
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Organization The Cooperative Instit
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CREATING A DYNAMIC RESEARCH ENVIRON
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DAVID OONK/CIRES CIRES Director Kon
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CIRES Communications It has long be
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22 CIRES Annual Report 2011 People&
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Richard Armstrong The Glaciers and
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Roger Bilham Block Bounding Bookshe
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John Cassano Polar Climate and Mete
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Xinzhao Chu LIDAR Research Campaign
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Joost de Gouw Sources and Chemistry
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Lang Farmer Development of a Microi
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Baylor Fox-Kemper Improving Subgrid
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Craig Jones Understanding the Origi
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Peter Molnar Tibet and the Asian Mo
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David Noone A Modern Approach to Pa
Page 46 and 47: Judith Perlwitz Exploring Mechanism
Page 48 and 49: Balaji Rajagopalan with graduate st
Page 50 and 51: Mark C. Serreze Rapid Arctic Change
Page 52 and 53: Robert Sievers Innovative Vaccine D
Page 54 and 55: Margaret Tolbert Laboratory Studies
Page 56 and 57: Greg Tucker Is Climate Change Etche
Page 58 and 59: Rainer Volkamer Simulation Chamber
Page 60 and 61: Carol Wessman with graduate student
Page 62 and 63: SCIENTIFIC CENTERS n Center for Lim
Page 64 and 65: Center for Science and Technology P
Page 66 and 67: Climate Diagnostics Center The miss
Page 68 and 69: Earth Science and Observation Cente
Page 70 and 71: National Snow and Ice Data Center T
Page 72 and 73: WESTERN WATER ASSESSMENT n Impacts
Page 74 and 75: EDUCATION AND OUTREACH n Climate Sc
Page 76 and 77: VISITING FELLOWS With partial spons
Page 78 and 79: Faezeh Nick Sabbatical Ph.D., Insti
Page 80 and 81: INNOVATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The CIR
Page 82 and 83: GRADUATE RESEARCH FELLOWSHIPS CIRES
Page 84 and 85: CSD-01 083 CSD-02 093 CSD-03 108 CS
Page 86 and 87: Figure 1: Simplified schematic show
Page 88 and 89: Pichugina, YL, RM Banta, WA Brewer,
Page 90 and 91: NGDC-02MarineGeophysicsDataStewards
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Page 94 and 95: The SEAESRT (Space, Environmental E
Page 98 and 99: Figure 1: Sea surface height (SSH)
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Page 102 and 103: workflows that make use of SPIDR’
Page 104 and 105: PSD-10CloudandAerosolProcesses FEDE
Page 106 and 107: Milestone 3. Apply a CloudSat metho
Page 108 and 109: CLIMATESYSTEMVARIABILITY CSV-01 Det
Page 110 and 111: We greatly expanded the holdings in
Page 112 and 113: CSD-12EmissionsandAtmosphericCompos
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Page 116 and 117: Milestone 4. Analyze balloon-borne
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Page 120 and 121: feedbacks, on the SSTs in the model
Page 122 and 123: Milestone 1. Add additional glacier
Page 124 and 125: Several climate-monitoring products
Page 126 and 127: atmospheric removal of methylglyoxa
Page 128 and 129: Figure 1: Global image of the Radia
Page 130 and 131: profiling radars with radio acousti
Page 132 and 133: RP-04 Intercontinental Transport an
Page 134 and 135: ates can be understood by productio
Page 136 and 137: Milestone 3. Maintain a constituent
Page 138 and 139: stakeholders and decision makers as
Page 140 and 141: Milestone 3. Explore the expanding
Page 142 and 143: 140 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Measur
Page 144 and 145: Refereed Publications, 2010 Abdalat
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Brunt, KM, HA Fricker, L Padman, TA
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Phys., 10(10), 4795-4807, doi: 10.5
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of Arapaho Glacier, Front Range, Co
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to nutrients in streams and rivers
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Moritz, MA, TJ Moody, MA Krawchuk,
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with a first-guess approach, J. Geo
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stable water isotopes in climate mo
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G Keppel-Aleks, EA Kort, R Macatang
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Non-Refereed Publications, 2010 Ale
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and DZ Friday (2010), Digital eleva
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Refereed Journals in which CIRES Sc
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Honors and Awards, 2010 Abdalati, W
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Conferences, Workshops, Events, Pre
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170 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Append
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Acronyms 20CR Twentieth Century Rea
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ESRL Earth System Research Laborato
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MERRA Modern Era Retrospective-Anal
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SXI Solar X-ray Imager TES Total Em
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