2011 - Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences ...

AMOS-03 Prediction,
Model Development and Evaluation
n CSD-02 Chemical Transport Model Research
n PSD-16 Raindrop Size Distributions
n PSD-17 Environmental Monitoring and Prediction
n GSD-01 Numerical Weather Prediction
n GSD-03 Verification Techniques for the Evaluation of Aviation
Weather Forecasts
n GSD-05 Numerical Prediction Developmental Testbed Center
n GSD-06 Environmental Information Systems
n NGDC-03 Space Weather
n SWPC-01 Solar Disturbances in the Geospace Environment
n SWPC-02 Modeling the Upper Atmosphere
CSD-02ChemicalTransportModelResearch
FEDERAL LEAD: MICHAEL TRAINER
CIRES LEAD: CHRISTINE ENNIS
NOAA Goal 3: Weather and Water
Project Goal: Undertake research that contributes to the ability
to forecast regional air quality and improves the understanding
of the budget of ozone in the upper troposphere.
Milestone 1. Conduct a detailed study of the California
ozone budget during the CalNex field study in the spring of
2010. Impact: This CIRES research will result in the first measurement-based
tropospheric ozone budget for California.
The findings will enable scientists and air quality mangers to
quantify the contribution of baseline ozone to the exceedances
of ozone air quality standards in California.
Since 1997, monitoring of tropospheric baseline ozone at
the U.S. West Coast has been limited to the weekly ozonesondes
from Trinidad Head, Calif. To explore baseline
ozone at other latitudes, an ozonesonde network was
implemented during spring 2010, with four launch sites
along the California coast. Three inland sites indicated the
impact of ozone production downwind of the baseline sites.
Modeled North America pollution impacted the California
coast primarily below 3 km, with no significant impact on
the median coastal ozone profiles. Vertical and latitudinal
variation in free tropospheric baseline ozone appears to be
partly explained by polluted and stratospheric air masses
that descend isentropically along the West Coast. Above 3
km, the dominant sources of ozone precursors were China
and international shipping, while international shipping
was the greatest source below 2 km. Approximately 8 percent
to 10 percent of the baseline ozone that enters California
in the 0-6 km range impacts the surface of the United
States, but very little reaches the eastern United States.
Within California, the major impact of baseline ozone that
enters the state above 2 km is on the high-elevation terrain
of eastern California. Baseline ozone below 2 km has its
strongest impact on the low-elevation sites throughout the
state. Compared to baseline sites, we found no increase in
lower tropospheric ozone in the northern Central Valley,
while ozone increases of 12 percent to 24 percent were
found over the rest of the Central Valley. Enhancements
above Joshua Tree National Park were similar, 16 percent
altitude, km a.s.l.
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median ozone, ppbv
Figure 1. a.) Median ozone profiles above the IONS-2010 ozonesonde sites using all available
profiles. Line colors correspond to the site label colors in panel b. b.) Locations of the seven
IONS-2010 ozonesonde sites. Also shown are the NOAA P3 sampling locations (blue dots) of the
Figure 1: a) Median ozone profiles above the IONS-2010 ozonesonde sites
using all available profiles. Line colors correspond to the site label colors
measurements used in the Central Valley and LA Basin ozone composite profiles.
in panel b; b) Locations of the seven IONS-2010 ozonesonde sites. Also
shown are the NOAA P-3 sampling locations (blue dots) of the measurements
used in the Central Valley and L.A. Basin ozone composite profiles.
to 21 percent, while the greatest ozone enhancements occurred
over the Los Angeles Basin, 29 percent to 60 percent.
Product: Cooper, OR, SJ Oltmans, BJ Johnson, J Brioude,
W Angevine, M Trainer, DD Parrish, TR Ryerson, I Pollack,
PD Cullis, MA Ives, DW Tarasick, J Al-Saadi, and I Stajner
(2011), Measurement of western U.S. baseline ozone from
the surface to the tropopause and assessment of downwind
impact regions, J. Geophys. Res., in review.
Milestone 2. Use existing inventories, available field and
satellite measurements, and models to improve the emission
inventories for chemical transport models; and initiate a multiagency
effort to coordinate U.S. research on emissions and
enhance access to emission data sets and tools for their evaluation.
Impact: These comparisons will provide an evaluation
of the status of the most recent inventories and the temporal
trends in emissions that have been seen over the last decade.
The multiagency initiative will strengthen the research relationships
between the inventory development, observations
and modeling communities.
Task 1: We evaluated U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) 2005 National Emission Inventory
(NEI2005) estimates of air pollution emissions. We focused
on Houston and Dallas, Texas, which regularly violate
Federal air-quality standards (Figure 2). We compared
an atmospheric chemical-transport model to satellite and
NOAA aircraft data of direct pollution emissions (nitrogen
oxides, or NOx, and two highly reactive organic compounds,
ethylene and propylene) and the secondary pollutants
(ozone and formaldehyde) formed by atmospheric
chemical reactions of these emissions. We found that the
NEI2005 provides reasonable estimates of 2006 Dallas and
Houston motor vehicle emissions. The NEI2005 inaccurately
represents NOx, ethylene and propylene emissions
from Houston’s petrochemical industry and NOx
emissions from Houston’s in-port commercial shipping.
Reducing NEI2005 industrial and port NOx emissions and
increasing NEI2005 petrochemical ethylene and propylene
emissions in Houston improved the model’s ability to
simulate secondary ozone and formaldehyde in the city’s
pollution plumes.
Task 2: The Community Initiative for Emissions Research
and Applications (CIERA) was initiated through
a partnership of the U.S. EPA, NOAA, the Federation
of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP), Department
of Energy (DOE), International Global Atmospheric
Chemistry (IGAC), NCAR, several academic institutions
CIRES Annual Report 2011 93