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Executive Summary and Research Highlights CIRES: Science in Service to Society The Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado Boulder was established in 1967 as NOAA’s first cooperative institute. CIRES continues to be a world leader in interdisciplinary research and teaching across a diverse range of Earth system science topics. CIRES researchers use established and innovative approaches to study the cryosphere, ecosystems, weather and climate, solid earth and environmental chemistry, observations, modeling and forecasting. This summary highlights many of the past year’s research accomplishments and activities, demonstrating how CIRES supports NOAA in meeting its strategic goals. In service to society, CIRES continues to communicate its research findings to help inform decision makers and the public about how to best ensure a sustainable environment. On a broader scale, fiscal year 2011 (FY11, July 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011) was marked by natural disasters worldwide, including the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the 2010 Russian Heat Wave and the aftermath of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico, along with record droughts, tornados and temperature extremes in the United States, making CIRES’ mission of forecasting and responding to severe weather and climate more critical than ever. CIRES leads the way in this capacity, extrapolating data gleaned from the Japan megaquake to the United States, where seismologists expect a 9.0 earthquake to shake the Oregon-Washington Coast sometime in the next 200 years. The lessons learned from Japan are serving as an important template for forecast and disaster mitigation in the United States and elsewhere. CIRES researchers met their forecasting goal by upgrading and extensively testing the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model; developing advanced DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) programs for the early detection and warning of tsunamis; and creating 22 new digital elevation models of the U.S. coast. These representations of Earth’s solid surface are fundamental for modeling and planning for tsunamis, hurricane storm-surges and sea-level rise. Among CIRES’ many other accomplishments, our scientists released a state-of-the-art product, MASIE–NH (Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent–Northern Hemisphere), which allows anyone to view current Arctic sea-ice coverage by region—information vital for transportation, commerce, ecosystem protection and climate understanding. Additionally, CIRES researchers spearheaded the writing, reviewing and editing of the 2010 international scientific state-of-understanding assessment report on the ozone layer and delivered it to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), where it will inform policy decisions to protect the ozone layer. Advances were also made toward the deployment of an aerosol forecast system (similar to the national ozone forecast system), which will give early warning of high levels of these tiny, airborne particles harmful to human health. In response to natural hazards, CIRES quickly mobilized around the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill by diverting a cutting-edge research aircraft (the NOAA WP-3D) to the region 4 CIRES Annual Report 2011 to evaluate air-quality concerns, oil leakage rates and the risks posed to human health and wildlife. The researchers, who worked in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, discovered that approximately one-third of the oil evaporated into the atmosphere. After the deadly Russian Heat Wave in summer 2010, CIRES scientists statistically analyzed observations and ran climate models to conclude the event was due to natural variability and not climate change. The researchers cautioned, however, that extreme weather events could become more likely in the future as greenhouse gases continue to increase. Following the April 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland, CIRES researchers ran real-time volcanic ash forecasts using the NOAA/CIRES FIM (Finite-volume Icosahedral Model) and used this data to refine the model in the event of future such eruptions. CIRES had another exceptional year of research support during FY11, with total extramural research expenses of $60,421,835 (increasing again by 10 percent or nearly $5.7 million more than the previous year). The outlook for CIRES science remains strong, as CIRES’ total budget, including university faculty support, was $64,522,969. NOAA support through the Cooperative Agreement accounted for $30,867,036 (48 percent); external research awards accounted for $29,554,799 (46 percent); and university faculty support accounted for $4,101,134 (6 percent). CIRES supported 193 research scientists, 228 associate scientists, 29 visiting scientists, 28 postdoctoral researchers, 32 administrative staff, 96 graduate students and 86 undergraduate students. In total, CIRES supported 714 scientists, staff and students. In FY11, CIRES had 22 faculty lines. In total, CIRES researchers published 512 peer-reviewed publications during calendar year 2010. The CIRES Council of Fellows welcomed Dr. Stanley Benjamin, Dr. Steve Montzka and Dr. Judith Perlwitz. Benjamin is a NOAA meteorologist working at the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Global Systems Division. His research focuses on numerical weather prediction, data assimilation and aviation meteorology. Montzka is a NOAA scientist at the ESRL Global Monitoring Division where he tracks trace atmospheric chemicals, including ozone and substitutes for ozone-depleting substances. Perlwitz is a CIRES atmospheric scientist working at the ESRL Physical Sciences Division exploring the two-way interactions between the troposphere and stratosphere, and mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences climate. CIRES researchers who received awards and honors in FY11 are too numerous to list in this summary, but a sample of recognized expertise and service includes the selection of four CIRES Fellows to be lead authors for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report. They include Konrad Steffen and Tingjun Zhang (cryosphere), Judith Perlwitz (global to regional detection and attribution of climate change) and Steve Nerem (sealevel change). Other notable recognitions of CIRES Fellows include the selection of Waleed Abdalati, Director of CIRES Earth Science and Observation Center and Associate Profes-
KONRAD STEFFEN/CIRES The NSF research facility on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Summit Station), with a satellite dish for data transmission and communication. sor of Geography, to serve as NASA’s Chief Scientist for a two-year appointment beginning in January 2011. Professor William Lewis Jr., Director of the CIRES Center for Limnology, was the invited speaker for the Baldi Lecture at the triennial congress of the International Society for Limnology. Margaret Tolbert was named CU Distinguished Professor—the University’s highest faculty honor. David Noone, Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Noah Fierer, Associate Professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, received the prestigious National Science Foundation (NSF) CAREER Award. CIRES facilities are also making news. The National Science Foundation awarded $525,000 to the CIRES National Snow and Ice Data Center, to reduce the data center’s carbon footprint and become one of the most energyefficient data centers in the United States. The completion of the new “Green Data Center” is expected in late 2011. The new Center for Atmospheric Chemistry—a collaboration between CIRES and the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry—will enable researchers to investigate the impact of aerosols on the environment by helping to resolve the differences between the observed and modeled particlerelated cooling influence on Earth’s surface. The new laboratory likely will become one of the top three in the United States and will support two new faculty lines. CIRES also became part of two new Department of Interior Climate Science Centers in the Southwest and North Central regions that were created to conduct and coordinate research on climate change and ecosystems. The Western Water Assessment (WWA)—a NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program created in 1999 as a joint program with CIRES—completed the Colorado Climate Preparedness report and database to facilitate adaptation-planning strategies for the state. Related research by WWA includes the recent findings that dark-colored dust settling on high-elevation snowpack in the Colorado River headwaters causes earlier snowmelt and evaporative losses of nearly 5 percent of the average total annual flow in the river. CIRES Education and Outreach group serves the community through its science education projects that provide professional development for science educators and scientifically robust climate and energy materials for teachers and students. This group also leads a K-12 program placing graduate students in socioeconomically diverse local schools to enhance science, technology, engineering and math skills. CIRES is involved in other important efforts to improve diversity in Earth system research. We have been a longtime supporter of the Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (SOARS) program, CIRES Annual Report 2011 5
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Page 4 and 5: 2 CIRES Annual Report 2011 From the
Page 8 and 9: which is a learning community and m
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Page 14 and 15: Council of Fellows n Waleed Abdalat
Page 16 and 17: Organization The Cooperative Instit
Page 18 and 19: CREATING A DYNAMIC RESEARCH ENVIRON
Page 20 and 21: DAVID OONK/CIRES CIRES Director Kon
Page 22 and 23: CIRES Communications It has long be
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Page 26 and 27: Richard Armstrong The Glaciers and
Page 28 and 29: Roger Bilham Block Bounding Bookshe
Page 30 and 31: John Cassano Polar Climate and Mete
Page 32 and 33: Xinzhao Chu LIDAR Research Campaign
Page 34 and 35: Joost de Gouw Sources and Chemistry
Page 36 and 37: Lang Farmer Development of a Microi
Page 38 and 39: Baylor Fox-Kemper Improving Subgrid
Page 40 and 41: Craig Jones Understanding the Origi
Page 42 and 43: Peter Molnar Tibet and the Asian Mo
Page 44 and 45: David Noone A Modern Approach to Pa
Page 46 and 47: Judith Perlwitz Exploring Mechanism
Page 48 and 49: Balaji Rajagopalan with graduate st
Page 50 and 51: Mark C. Serreze Rapid Arctic Change
Page 52 and 53: Robert Sievers Innovative Vaccine D
Page 54 and 55: Margaret Tolbert Laboratory Studies
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Greg Tucker Is Climate Change Etche
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Rainer Volkamer Simulation Chamber
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Carol Wessman with graduate student
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SCIENTIFIC CENTERS n Center for Lim
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Center for Science and Technology P
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Climate Diagnostics Center The miss
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Earth Science and Observation Cente
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National Snow and Ice Data Center T
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WESTERN WATER ASSESSMENT n Impacts
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EDUCATION AND OUTREACH n Climate Sc
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VISITING FELLOWS With partial spons
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Faezeh Nick Sabbatical Ph.D., Insti
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INNOVATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The CIR
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GRADUATE RESEARCH FELLOWSHIPS CIRES
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CSD-01 083 CSD-02 093 CSD-03 108 CS
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Figure 1: Simplified schematic show
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Pichugina, YL, RM Banta, WA Brewer,
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NGDC-02MarineGeophysicsDataStewards
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statistical measurements such as th
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The SEAESRT (Space, Environmental E
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1. The spatial Figure distribution
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Figure 1: Sea surface height (SSH)
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unning at NWS and a backup at the G
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workflows that make use of SPIDR’
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PSD-10CloudandAerosolProcesses FEDE
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Milestone 3. Apply a CloudSat metho
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CLIMATESYSTEMVARIABILITY CSV-01 Det
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We greatly expanded the holdings in
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CSD-12EmissionsandAtmosphericCompos
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tolysis) and global warming potenti
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Milestone 4. Analyze balloon-borne
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GMD-05OzoneDepletion FEDERAL LEADS:
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feedbacks, on the SSTs in the model
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Milestone 1. Add additional glacier
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Several climate-monitoring products
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atmospheric removal of methylglyoxa
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Figure 1: Global image of the Radia
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profiling radars with radio acousti
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RP-04 Intercontinental Transport an
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ates can be understood by productio
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Milestone 3. Maintain a constituent
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stakeholders and decision makers as
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Milestone 3. Explore the expanding
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140 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Measur
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Refereed Publications, 2010 Abdalat
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Brunt, KM, HA Fricker, L Padman, TA
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Phys., 10(10), 4795-4807, doi: 10.5
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of Arapaho Glacier, Front Range, Co
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to nutrients in streams and rivers
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Moritz, MA, TJ Moody, MA Krawchuk,
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with a first-guess approach, J. Geo
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stable water isotopes in climate mo
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G Keppel-Aleks, EA Kort, R Macatang
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Non-Refereed Publications, 2010 Ale
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and DZ Friday (2010), Digital eleva
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Refereed Journals in which CIRES Sc
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Honors and Awards, 2010 Abdalati, W
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Conferences, Workshops, Events, Pre
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170 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Append
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Acronyms 20CR Twentieth Century Rea
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ESRL Earth System Research Laborato
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MERRA Modern Era Retrospective-Anal
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SXI Solar X-ray Imager TES Total Em
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