2011 - Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences ...

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Mark C. Serreze Rapid Arctic Change FUNDING: NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION, NASA My research has focused on understanding the causes and impacts of rapid climate change in the Arctic. One of the most visible signs of change is the accelerating decline in September sea-ice extent. This appears to reflect several processes working together. With more open water in September than there used to be, ice cover in the following spring is thinner than in the past and is especially vulnerable to melting out the next summer. Earlier spring melt fosters a feedback whereby dark open-water areas readily absorb the sun’s energy, which fosters even more ice melt. The thinner ice is also more easily broken up by winds associated with passing storms. Finally, general warming of the Arctic has reduced the likelihood of cold years that could bring about recovery. With less ice, the Arctic is becoming more accessible to marine shipping and extraction of natural resources, increasing the strategic importance of the region. Air temperatures in the Arctic have risen faster than for the globe as a whole, a process called Arctic amplification. While clearly associated with reduced September sea-ice extent—which promotes strong transfers of ocean heat to the atmosphere in autumn and winter—other processes also appear to be contributing. These include changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation that bring more heat into the Arctic; increases in cloud cover and water vapor that bolster the flux of longwave (heat) radiation to the surface; soot on snow that darkens the surface; and heightened concentrations of black carbon aerosols. The latter two lead to stronger absorption of solar energy at the surface and in the atmosphere, respectively. The Arctic amplification observed today will become stronger in coming decades, invoking changes in atmospheric circulation, vegetation and the carbon cycle, with impacts both within and beyond the Arctic. 48 CIRES Annual Report 2011 MARK SERREZE Serreze measures snow depth on the North Slope of Alaska, April 2011.
Anne Sheehan Deep Structure Beneath Rocky Mountain Foreland Arches and Sedimentary Basins FUNDING: NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION The Bighorns Arch Experiment is an integrated seismological and structural geology investigation to understand how basement-involved foreland arches form; how they are connected to plate tectonics; and what they reveal about the rheology of the continental lithosphere. Basementinvolvedarches—characteristic of the Laramide orogeny that formed the Rocky Mountains 60 million years ago—are uplifts of deep crystalline basement rocks, which are rocks beneath what is often several kilometers or more of sedimentary cover. They are typically flanked by deep sedimentary basins. Hypotheses for the formation of basement-involved arches include subcrustal shear during shallow subduction, crustal detachment, lithospheric buckling and domino-style lithospheric faulting. All of these hypotheses predict different lower crustal and crust-mantle boundary geometries beneath foreland arches. These hypotheses and others are being tested by combining the near-surface geology of the Bighorn CIRES undergraduate assistant Jeremiah Silver installs a short period seismometer in Bighorn Mountains, Wyo. ANNE SHEEHAN Arch of northern Wyoming with a combined active/passive source EarthScope Flexible Array seismic experiment. The Bighorn Arch was chosen because it is minimally affected by pre- and post-Laramide tectonic events, preserving the sedimentary sequence. It has a relatively planar, west-dipping backlimb inclined into the Bighorn Basin and a more abrupt, east-dipping forelimb facing the Powder River Basin. The passive seismic experiment uses naturally occurring seismic sources, such as earthquakes and ambient noise. The active-source experiment includes the use of controlled sources, 20 single-fired shots ranging from 500 to 2,000 lbs. in size. The seismic experiment was a three-phase deployment with a 15-month deployment of 41 broadband seismometers (deployed summer/fall 2009); a six-month deployment of 170 three-component short-period seismometers; a four-month deployment of three five-element seismic arrays (supported by an Air Force Research Laboratory seismic discrimination contract); an active-source experiment with 20 single-fired shots recorded on 1,800 geophones; and a passive-source geophone deployment with 850 geophones deployed in passive-source mode for 12 days. The combination of these approaches is being used to develop structural crustal images at high resolution at all levels of the crust. Ongoing analysis with the data collected includes the use of seismic mode-converted waves to map out subsurface interfaces such as the crust-mantle boundary. Vertical component multiply-reflected waves from distant earthquakes (teleseisms) have been used to map out sedimentary basin structure. This is the first time to our knowledge that recordings of distant earthquakes on a dense array of industry-style geophones have been used to map out sedimentary basin structure at this level of detail. This technique shows great promise, and as passive-source seismology is increasingly applied in oil and gas and geothermal reservoir modeling, the reverberation image method could be used to extract structural information from the passive data. Ambient noise surface wave tomography analysis has been performed and provides constraints on crustal shear velocity. CIRES Annual Report 2011 49
Page 2 and 3: COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH
Page 4 and 5: 2 CIRES Annual Report 2011 From the
Page 6 and 7: Executive Summary and Research High
Page 8 and 9: which is a learning community and m
Page 10 and 11: and community preparedness and disa
Page 12 and 13: 10 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Year in
Page 14 and 15: Council of Fellows n Waleed Abdalat
Page 16 and 17: Organization The Cooperative Instit
Page 18 and 19: CREATING A DYNAMIC RESEARCH ENVIRON
Page 20 and 21: DAVID OONK/CIRES CIRES Director Kon
Page 22 and 23: CIRES Communications It has long be
Page 24 and 25: 22 CIRES Annual Report 2011 People&
Page 26 and 27: Richard Armstrong The Glaciers and
Page 28 and 29: Roger Bilham Block Bounding Bookshe
Page 30 and 31: John Cassano Polar Climate and Mete
Page 32 and 33: Xinzhao Chu LIDAR Research Campaign
Page 34 and 35: Joost de Gouw Sources and Chemistry
Page 36 and 37: Lang Farmer Development of a Microi
Page 38 and 39: Baylor Fox-Kemper Improving Subgrid
Page 40 and 41: Craig Jones Understanding the Origi
Page 42 and 43: Peter Molnar Tibet and the Asian Mo
Page 44 and 45: David Noone A Modern Approach to Pa
Page 46 and 47: Judith Perlwitz Exploring Mechanism
Page 48 and 49: Balaji Rajagopalan with graduate st
Page 52 and 53: Robert Sievers Innovative Vaccine D
Page 54 and 55: Margaret Tolbert Laboratory Studies
Page 56 and 57: Greg Tucker Is Climate Change Etche
Page 58 and 59: Rainer Volkamer Simulation Chamber
Page 60 and 61: Carol Wessman with graduate student
Page 62 and 63: SCIENTIFIC CENTERS n Center for Lim
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Page 66 and 67: Climate Diagnostics Center The miss
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Page 70 and 71: National Snow and Ice Data Center T
Page 72 and 73: WESTERN WATER ASSESSMENT n Impacts
Page 74 and 75: EDUCATION AND OUTREACH n Climate Sc
Page 76 and 77: VISITING FELLOWS With partial spons
Page 78 and 79: Faezeh Nick Sabbatical Ph.D., Insti
Page 80 and 81: INNOVATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The CIR
Page 82 and 83: GRADUATE RESEARCH FELLOWSHIPS CIRES
Page 84 and 85: CSD-01 083 CSD-02 093 CSD-03 108 CS
Page 86 and 87: Figure 1: Simplified schematic show
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Page 90 and 91: NGDC-02MarineGeophysicsDataStewards
Page 92 and 93: statistical measurements such as th
Page 94 and 95: The SEAESRT (Space, Environmental E
Page 96 and 97: 1. The spatial Figure distribution
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unning at NWS and a backup at the G
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workflows that make use of SPIDR’
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PSD-10CloudandAerosolProcesses FEDE
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Milestone 3. Apply a CloudSat metho
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CLIMATESYSTEMVARIABILITY CSV-01 Det
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We greatly expanded the holdings in
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CSD-12EmissionsandAtmosphericCompos
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tolysis) and global warming potenti
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Milestone 4. Analyze balloon-borne
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GMD-05OzoneDepletion FEDERAL LEADS:
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feedbacks, on the SSTs in the model
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Milestone 1. Add additional glacier
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Several climate-monitoring products
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atmospheric removal of methylglyoxa
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Figure 1: Global image of the Radia
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profiling radars with radio acousti
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RP-04 Intercontinental Transport an
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ates can be understood by productio
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Milestone 3. Maintain a constituent
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stakeholders and decision makers as
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Milestone 3. Explore the expanding
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140 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Measur
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Refereed Publications, 2010 Abdalat
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Brunt, KM, HA Fricker, L Padman, TA
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Phys., 10(10), 4795-4807, doi: 10.5
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of Arapaho Glacier, Front Range, Co
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to nutrients in streams and rivers
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Moritz, MA, TJ Moody, MA Krawchuk,
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with a first-guess approach, J. Geo
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stable water isotopes in climate mo
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G Keppel-Aleks, EA Kort, R Macatang
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Non-Refereed Publications, 2010 Ale
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and DZ Friday (2010), Digital eleva
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Refereed Journals in which CIRES Sc
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Honors and Awards, 2010 Abdalati, W
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Conferences, Workshops, Events, Pre
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170 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Append
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Acronyms 20CR Twentieth Century Rea
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ESRL Earth System Research Laborato
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MERRA Modern Era Retrospective-Anal
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SXI Solar X-ray Imager TES Total Em
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