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Judith Perlwitz Exploring Mechanisms by which the Stratosphere Influences Climate FUNDING: NASA, NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE Over the past two decades, observational and modeling studies have fundamentally changed our understanding of the stratosphere’s role in surface weather and climate. In the past, the general understanding was that the dynamical coupling between troposphere and stratosphere is mainly upward. Now, we have manifold evidence for a two-way interaction between both layers of the atmosphere, including evidence for a downward influence. For example, it has been found that stratospheric ozone loss has affected the climate of the Southern Hemisphere by causing a poleward shift of the 44 CIRES Annual Report 2011 jet stream and precipitation patterns, as well as by warming the Antarctic Peninsula. It also has been shown that stratospheric variability affects short-term and seasonal forecasts, connecting the tropics and midlatitudes and guiding storm-track dynamics. During the last year, we carried out three studies that establish a new dynamical mechanism involving downward wave coupling wherein stratospheric ozone changes can affect climate. Downward wave coupling occurs when planetary waves generated in the troposphere are reflected in the stratosphere and modify the tropospheric flow. We investigated the nature of downward wave coupling in the Southern Hemisphere; illustrated that downward wave-1 coupling from September to December has increased over the last three decades; and showed that temporal changes in stratospheric ozone associated with past depletion and future recovery significantly impact downward wave coupling. To further facility progress in the research area of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, we organized a CIRES- and NOAA-hosted international Dynamics and Variability (DynVar) of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System (DynVar 2) Workshop, Nov. 3–5, 2010, in Boulder, Colo. This workshop provided a forum for discussing advancements in key scientific areas on the influence of the stratosphere on the global climate system and also coordinated the analysis of the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report model experiments and the Stratosphere-resolving Historical Forecast experiments, a project of the World Climate Research Programme. July–August (left) and September–October (right) climatology of zonal mean zonal wind (m/s, isolines) in the Southern Hemisphere together with estimates of the wave geometry of the basic flow. Shaded are regions of wave evanescence. Thus, waves of zonal wave number one can only propagate in regions that are not shaded. During July-August waves can propagate all the wave up to the upper stratosphere (green arrow). During September–October a reflective surface for vertically propagating waves forms at around 5 hPa, and upward propagating waves are reflected back into the troposphere (blue arrow).
Roger Pielke, Jr. Influence of Location, Population and Climate on Building Damage and Fatalities Due to Australian Bushfire: 1925–2009 FUNDING: NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION This study (Crompton et al., 2010), conducted in collaboration with colleagues at Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia, reevaluates the history of building damage and loss of life due to bushfire (wildfire) in Australia since 1925 in light of the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria in which 173 people lost their lives and 2,298 homes were destroyed along with many other structures. Historical records are normalized to estimate building damage and fatalities had events occurred under the societal conditions of 2008/09. There are relationships between normalized building damage and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole phenomena, but there is no discernable evidence that the normalized data are being Aerial view of northern Sydney showing the highly dissected and complex interface (red line) between brushland (dark green) and urban areas. influenced by climatic change due to the emission of greenhouse gases. Our result—that there is no discernable evidence that normalized building damage is being influenced by climate change due to the emission of greenhouse gases—is not surprising when you consider that bushfire damage is not solely a function of bushfire weather; far from it, in fact. Even given a gradual aggravation of bushfire weather due to anthropogenic climate change or other factors, a bushfire still has to be ignited. Once ignited, a bushfire then has to traverse the landscape and impact a populated area, where outcomes in terms of damage will be a function of the spatial disposition of dwellings with respect to the fire front, and especially distance of properties from the bushland boundary (McAneney et al., 2009). These factors all contribute a large degree of stochasticity to eventual event-loss outcomes. Annual Aggregated Bushfire HE/Fatalities and Corresponding Normalized Values for Bushfire Years 192-2008 Figure 1: (a) Annual aggregate house equivalents (HE)for bushfire events in Peril, Australia, for years beginning July 1; (b) as in (a) but with HE normalized to 2008 brushfire year values. Figure 2: (a) Annual aggregate fatalities for brushfire events in the Haynes et al. (2010) database for years beginning July 1; (b) as in (a) but with fatalities normalized to 2008 brushfire year values. CIRES Annual Report 2011 45
Page 2 and 3: COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH
Page 4 and 5: 2 CIRES Annual Report 2011 From the
Page 6 and 7: Executive Summary and Research High
Page 8 and 9: which is a learning community and m
Page 10 and 11: and community preparedness and disa
Page 12 and 13: 10 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Year in
Page 14 and 15: Council of Fellows n Waleed Abdalat
Page 16 and 17: Organization The Cooperative Instit
Page 18 and 19: CREATING A DYNAMIC RESEARCH ENVIRON
Page 20 and 21: DAVID OONK/CIRES CIRES Director Kon
Page 22 and 23: CIRES Communications It has long be
Page 24 and 25: 22 CIRES Annual Report 2011 People&
Page 26 and 27: Richard Armstrong The Glaciers and
Page 28 and 29: Roger Bilham Block Bounding Bookshe
Page 30 and 31: John Cassano Polar Climate and Mete
Page 32 and 33: Xinzhao Chu LIDAR Research Campaign
Page 34 and 35: Joost de Gouw Sources and Chemistry
Page 36 and 37: Lang Farmer Development of a Microi
Page 38 and 39: Baylor Fox-Kemper Improving Subgrid
Page 40 and 41: Craig Jones Understanding the Origi
Page 42 and 43: Peter Molnar Tibet and the Asian Mo
Page 44 and 45: David Noone A Modern Approach to Pa
Page 48 and 49: Balaji Rajagopalan with graduate st
Page 50 and 51: Mark C. Serreze Rapid Arctic Change
Page 52 and 53: Robert Sievers Innovative Vaccine D
Page 54 and 55: Margaret Tolbert Laboratory Studies
Page 56 and 57: Greg Tucker Is Climate Change Etche
Page 58 and 59: Rainer Volkamer Simulation Chamber
Page 60 and 61: Carol Wessman with graduate student
Page 62 and 63: SCIENTIFIC CENTERS n Center for Lim
Page 64 and 65: Center for Science and Technology P
Page 66 and 67: Climate Diagnostics Center The miss
Page 68 and 69: Earth Science and Observation Cente
Page 70 and 71: National Snow and Ice Data Center T
Page 72 and 73: WESTERN WATER ASSESSMENT n Impacts
Page 74 and 75: EDUCATION AND OUTREACH n Climate Sc
Page 76 and 77: VISITING FELLOWS With partial spons
Page 78 and 79: Faezeh Nick Sabbatical Ph.D., Insti
Page 80 and 81: INNOVATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM The CIR
Page 82 and 83: GRADUATE RESEARCH FELLOWSHIPS CIRES
Page 84 and 85: CSD-01 083 CSD-02 093 CSD-03 108 CS
Page 86 and 87: Figure 1: Simplified schematic show
Page 88 and 89: Pichugina, YL, RM Banta, WA Brewer,
Page 90 and 91: NGDC-02MarineGeophysicsDataStewards
Page 92 and 93: statistical measurements such as th
Page 94 and 95: The SEAESRT (Space, Environmental E
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1. The spatial Figure distribution
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Figure 1: Sea surface height (SSH)
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unning at NWS and a backup at the G
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workflows that make use of SPIDR’
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PSD-10CloudandAerosolProcesses FEDE
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Milestone 3. Apply a CloudSat metho
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CLIMATESYSTEMVARIABILITY CSV-01 Det
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We greatly expanded the holdings in
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CSD-12EmissionsandAtmosphericCompos
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tolysis) and global warming potenti
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Milestone 4. Analyze balloon-borne
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GMD-05OzoneDepletion FEDERAL LEADS:
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feedbacks, on the SSTs in the model
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Milestone 1. Add additional glacier
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Several climate-monitoring products
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atmospheric removal of methylglyoxa
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Figure 1: Global image of the Radia
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profiling radars with radio acousti
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RP-04 Intercontinental Transport an
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ates can be understood by productio
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Milestone 3. Maintain a constituent
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stakeholders and decision makers as
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Milestone 3. Explore the expanding
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140 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Measur
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Refereed Publications, 2010 Abdalat
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Brunt, KM, HA Fricker, L Padman, TA
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Phys., 10(10), 4795-4807, doi: 10.5
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of Arapaho Glacier, Front Range, Co
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to nutrients in streams and rivers
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Moritz, MA, TJ Moody, MA Krawchuk,
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with a first-guess approach, J. Geo
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stable water isotopes in climate mo
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G Keppel-Aleks, EA Kort, R Macatang
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Non-Refereed Publications, 2010 Ale
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and DZ Friday (2010), Digital eleva
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Refereed Journals in which CIRES Sc
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Honors and Awards, 2010 Abdalati, W
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Conferences, Workshops, Events, Pre
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170 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Append
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Acronyms 20CR Twentieth Century Rea
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ESRL Earth System Research Laborato
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MERRA Modern Era Retrospective-Anal
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SXI Solar X-ray Imager TES Total Em
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