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2011 - Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences ...

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Lisa Dill<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Climate Change, Decision Mak<strong>in</strong>g<br />

and Manag<strong>in</strong>g Risks<br />

FUNDING: NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION, NOAA<br />

Water-pump<strong>in</strong>g station near Los Banos, Calif.<br />

While much attention<br />

has been focused<br />

on estimat<strong>in</strong>g future<br />

impacts from climate<br />

change, much rema<strong>in</strong>s<br />

to be understood about<br />

the barriers to successful<br />

adaptation from a societal<br />

perspective (Adger et al.,<br />

2007).<br />

My colleagues and<br />

I are work<strong>in</strong>g on several<br />

<strong>in</strong>terrelated projects<br />

tackl<strong>in</strong>g the questions of<br />

what capacity is needed<br />

to respond to the risks<br />

posed by climate change<br />

and how policy processes<br />

can function as barriers or<br />

opportunities <strong>for</strong> <strong>in</strong>corpo-<br />

rat<strong>in</strong>g risk <strong>in</strong>to decision mak<strong>in</strong>g. Capacity is understood<br />

broadly to <strong>in</strong>clude <strong>in</strong>stitutional flexibility <strong>in</strong> mak<strong>in</strong>g<br />

decisions, the availability of usable knowledge, attitudes<br />

and perceptions, governance and legal frameworks, and<br />

f<strong>in</strong>ancial and human resources.<br />

I have chosen to focus on decision mak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> two<br />

important resource areas: public lands and water supply.<br />

Management of these resources <strong>in</strong>volves several complex<br />

agencies, legal <strong>in</strong>stitutions and public <strong>in</strong>terests at a wide<br />

variety of scales. Managers demonstrate an <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g<br />

awareness of the vulnerability of these resources to a<br />

variety of hazards stemm<strong>in</strong>g from natural climate variability,<br />

climate change and <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g (and often conflict<strong>in</strong>g)<br />

demands.<br />

Projects <strong>in</strong> my group <strong>in</strong>clude: 1) survey<strong>in</strong>g how public<br />

lands managers are <strong>in</strong>corporat<strong>in</strong>g climate change <strong>in</strong> their<br />

decision mak<strong>in</strong>g and identify<strong>in</strong>g potential needs and<br />

barriers; 2) analyz<strong>in</strong>g water management at the state level<br />

across five states to understand the capacity <strong>for</strong> adaptive<br />

behavior and the use of <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mation; 3) exam<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g how<br />

the response to short-term drought at the municipal level<br />

creates or dim<strong>in</strong>ishes vulnerability and adaptive capacity<br />

<strong>for</strong> future climate change; 4) identify<strong>in</strong>g adaptive actions<br />

across a wide suite of municipalities across three states<br />

and illum<strong>in</strong>at<strong>in</strong>g the underly<strong>in</strong>g factors that may expla<strong>in</strong><br />

why some communities respond to risk and others do not;<br />

and 5) creat<strong>in</strong>g a time-series analysis of stakeholder needs<br />

<strong>for</strong> climate <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mation and other resources with respect<br />

to climate change and variability across three states.<br />

ISTOCK<br />

CIRES Annual Report <strong>2011</strong> 33

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