2011 - Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences ...

from above ground to the tropopause from pole-to-pole during
each circuit. Final data are being submitted for the three
circuits—HIPPO/2 through HIPPO/4. During HIPPO/3, the
NCAR GV aircraft flew below the Global Hawk Unmanned
Aircraft Systems during its Global Hawk Pacific (GloPac) experiment
at about 40° N. A tracer-tracer plot of methane (CH4)
versus nitrous oxide (N2O) shows the agreement of different
instruments and altitudes for the two airborne platforms. An
overview of the HIPPO/1 and some HIPPO/2 results was
reported by Wofsy et al., 2011. A summary of the first three
HIPPO circuit results was presented during the Global Monitoring
Annual Conference in May 2011 in Boulder, Colo.
Milestone 3. Analyze ground-based and balloon ozone
measurements for long-term trends in the upper troposphere
and stratosphere.
The work on the 2010 World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) Ozone Assessment included assessment of ozone
trends derived from the ground-based Dobson data. With the
addition of four more years in the ozone record, evaluation of
the current state of the ozone layer continues to be of interest
to the scientific community. The Ozone Assessment supported
the conclusion that the long-term ozone decline over the
midlatitudes had stopped and that ozone had stabilized since
1996. When extended to 2009, the ground-based and satellite
data at northern middle latitudes show statistically significant
increases in the middle stratospheric ozone (20–25 km) since
1996 in some locations, but not globally. At the same time,
trends in the upper stratospheric ozone (35–45 km) over northern
middle latitudes show approximately 2 percent increases,
but uncertainties are large, and thus the attribution to ozone
depleting substance (ODS) changes is not certain. The time series
of well-established and calibrated ground-based Dobson
Umkehr instruments (Boulder, United States; OHP [Observatoire
de Haute-Provence], France; Arosa, Switzerland;
and Belsk, Poland) were used to identify long-term changes
in stratospheric ozone over Northern Middle latitudes
since 1979. Collaborative work with Japanese scientists was
conducted to assess Antarctic stratospheric ozone long-term
variability and trends. The analysis of stratospheric ozone data
recorded by Dobson Umkehr measurements since 1977 at the
Syowa (69.0° S, 39.6° E), Antarctica, station show a significant
decrease in ozone above 4 hPa during the 1980s and 1990s.
Over the last decade the atmospheric chlorine levels begin to
decline, while ozone is expected to recover. However, ozone
values over Syowa remain low since 2001.
Product: Douglass, A, V Fioletov, S Godin-Beekmann, R
Müller, RS Stolarski, A Webb, A Arola, JB Burkholder, P Burrows,
MP Chipperfiel, R Cordero, C David, PN den Outer, SB
Diaz, LE Flynn, M Hegglin, JR Herman, P Huck, S Janjaim, IM
Jánosi, JW Krzyścin, Y Liu, J Logan, K Matthes, RL McKenzie,
NJ Muthama, I Petropavlovskikh, M Pitts, S Ramachandran,
M Rex, RJ Salawitch, BM Sinnhuber, J Staehelin, S Strahan,
K Tourpali, J Valverde-Canossa, C Vigouroux (2010), Stratospheric
ozone and surface ultraviolet radiation, Scientific
Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, World Meteorological
Organization, 2011.
CSV-04 Climate Dynamics
n PSD-06 Climate Dynamics
n PSD-03 Empirical and Process Studies
n PSD-15 Surface Processes
PSD-06ClimateDynamics
FEDERAL LEAD: CHRIS FAIRALL
CIRES LEAD: LESLIE HARTTEN
NOAA Goal 2: Climate
Project Goal: Conduct research to improve understanding of
tropical Pacific Ocean dynamical processes related to the subseasonal
atmospheric variability, and atmospheric circulation,
convection, and moisture and heat budgets associated with the El
Niño phenomenon and the North American Monsoon (NAM).
Milestone 1. Explore relationship between sea breezes
along the West Coast of Mexico during the North American
Monsoon (NAM) and precipitation along the western
Sierra Madres Occidental. Submit publication on results.
Little progress was made on this milestone during the
July 2010-June 2011 time period, due to pressing needs on
other projects.
Milestone 2. Submit papers documenting the daily cycle
of winds during the NAM and their longitudinal and yearto-year
variability.
These manuscripts are in preparation; submission is
planned during the July 2011-June 2012 time period.
PSD-03EmpiricalandProcessStudies
FEDERAL LEADS: KLAUS WEICKMANN AND RANDALL DOLE
CIRES LEAD: PRASHANT SARDESHMUKH
NOAA Goal 2: Climate
Project Goal: Improve understanding of basic physical processes
that contribute to climate variability across a broad spectrum
of scales, with emphasis on moist atmospheric convection, radiative
transfer in cloudy areas and air-sea interaction.
Milestone 1. Conduct a local and non-local feedback
analysis of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations
in observations and the IPCC climate models
through Linear Inverse Modeling.
An important emerging issue in climate research is
the degree to which a SST change in one tropical ocean
basin affects the SST in other basins. In a recently published
study (Shin, Sardeshmukh, and Pegion, 2010), the
SST interactions among eight broadly defined regions
of coherent SST variability in the tropical Pacific, Indian
and Atlantic oceans were estimated using three observational
and 76 climate model simulation data sets of
the 20th century. The eight-dimensional SST feedback
matrix was estimated separately using each data set by
constructing a Linear Inverse Model based on the lagcovariance
statistics of the 100-year monthly SST time
series. The simulated feedback matrices were found to
differ in several key respects from the observed matrices
and also from one another. In particular, the influence of
the eastern Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
region on other regions and of the other regions on the
ENSO region was found to vary considerably from model
to model. The representation of remote interactions with
the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region was also found to be
highly variable. It was argued that these large errors/differences
arise mainly from differences in the representation
of the remote atmospheric teleconnective feedbacks,
and to a lesser extent the local radiative-thermodynamic
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