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tolysis) and global warming potential (GWP) of approximately 1. Hydrolysis is slow and produces HFC-227ea as the only gas phase product, a long-lived and potent greenhouse gas. Another co-product was C2F5COOH, which was highly soluble and did not show up in the gas phase. HFC- 227ea has an atmospheric lifetime of 38.9 years and a GWP of 3580 (on a 100-year time horizon). Preliminary estimates indicate that although both the Henry’s law constant and the hydrolysis rate are small, loss via hydrolysis in clouds and oceanic uptake can increase the effective climate forcing of PFMP significantly. Detailed measurements are in progress with other molecules of atmospheric interest. This project is scheduled to be completed and a paper to be submitted during the next year of this milestone. Figure 1: Hydrolysis rate coefficient (in units of per second) at two temperatures, 273 and 293 K in the buffer solutions of varying pH (acidity) relevant to tropospheric conditions. PSD-01ModelingofSeasonal toInterannualVariability FEDERAL LEADS: RANDALL DOLE AND MARTIN HOERLING CIRES LEAD: PRASHANT SARDESHMUKH NOAA Goal 2: Climate Project Goal: Understand how much predictability, especially outside the tropics, exists on seasonal to inter-annual timescales beyond that associated with linear El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals, and what additional useful predictive information can be extracted by making large ensembles of nonlinear General Circulation Model (GCM) integrations. Milestone 1. Determine the sensitivity of North American drought to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes at different locations, and identify the optimal anomalous tropical SST pattern for maximizing drought. In a recently published study (Shin, Sardeshmukh, and Webb, Journal of Climate, 2010), the optimal anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern for forcing North American drought was identified through atmospheric general circulation model integrations in which the response of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) was determined for each of 43 prescribed localized SST anomaly ‘‘patches’’ in a regular array over the tropical oceans. The robustness and relevance of the optimal pat- 112 CIRES Annual Report 2011 tern were established through the consistency of results obtained using two different models, and also by the good correspondence of the projection time series of historical tropical SST anomaly fields on the optimal pattern with the time series of the simulated PDSI in separate model integrations with prescribed time-varying observed global SST fields for 1920–2005. It was stressed that this optimal drought-forcing pattern differs markedly in the Pacific Ocean from the dominant SST pattern associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and also shows a large sensitivity of North American drought to Indian and Atlantic Ocean SSTs. Product: Shin, SI, PD Sardeshmukh, and RS Webb (2010), Optimal sea surface temperature forcing of North American drought, J. Clim., 23, 3907-3916, DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3360.1. PSD-02 Understanding and Predicting Subseasonal Variations and Their Implications for Longer-Term Climate Variability FEDERAL LEADS: JEFFREY WHITAKER AND RANDALL DOLE CIRES LEAD: PRASHANT SARDESHMUKH NOAA Goal 2: Climate Project Goal: Investigate the variability and predictability of weekly averages of the atmospheric circulation through modeling and diagnosis of the observed statistics, and also through detailed analysis of numerical weather forecast ensembles for week two. Milestone 1. Compare the week two and week three atmospheric circulation forecast skill of state-of-the-art global atmosphere-ocean coupled models with that of simple Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) based on lag-correlations of the northern hemispheric circulation and tropical convection fields. Assess the prospects for further skill improvement by performing a predictability analysis based on the relative magnitudes of the forecast signal and forecast noise. Extending atmospheric prediction skill beyond the predictability limit of about 10 days for daily weather rests on the hope that some time-averaged aspects of anomalous circulations remain predictable at longer forecast lead times, both due to the existence of natural low-frequency modes of atmospheric variability and coupling to a medium with larger thermal inertia. In a recent study (Pegion and Sardeshmukh, 2011), the week two and week three forecast skill of two global coupled atmosphere-ocean models recently developed at NASA and NOAA was compared with that of much simpler Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) derived from observed time-lag correlations of atmospheric circulation anomalies in the northern hemisphere and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) anomalies in the tropics. The coupled models were found to beat the LIMs only slightly, and only if an ensemble prediction methodology was employed. To assess the potential for further skill improvement, a predictability analysis based on the relative magnitudes of forecast signal and forecast noise in the LIM framework was conducted. Estimating potential skill by such a method was argued to be superior to using the ensemble-mean and ensemble-spread information in the coupled-model ensemble prediction system. The LIM-based predictability analysis yielded relatively conservative estimates of the potential skill, and suggested that outside the tropics, the average coupled-model skill may already be close to the potential
skill, although there may still be room for improvement in the tropical forecast skill. Product: Pegion, K, and PD Sardeshmukh (2011), Prospects for improving subseasonal predictions, Mon. Wea. Rev., in press, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00004.1. GMD-04ClimateForcing FEDERAL LEAD: JOHN OGREN CIRES LEAD: ANNE JEFFERSON NOAA Goal 2: Climate Project Goal: Greenhouse gases: Conduct research to better understand the interactions of the atmosphere with the land and ocean. Aerosols: Characterize the means, variabilities and trends of climate-forcing properties for different types of aerosols, and understand the factors that control these properties. Radiation: Research into broadband irradiance to improve benchmarks for climatic processes. Milestone 1. Use data from 12 high-altitude observatories to develop a climatology of free tropospheric aerosol radiative properties. A climatology of aerosol radiative properties at 12 highaltitude observatories around the globe has been developed. The analysis shows that for the free troposphere measurements included here, aerosol loading increases from west to east (where west begins at the Mauna Loa site in Hawaii and extinction (Mm -1) extinction (Mm -1) extinction (Mm -1) 60 45 30 15 0 80 60 40 20 0 400 300 200 100 0 MAM JJA SON DJF extinction (Mm -1) 100 80 60 40 20 0 MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF extinction (Mm -1) extinction (Mm -1) 40 30 20 10 0 300 200 100 0 east ends at the Mount Lulin site in Taiwan). Seasonal cycles in the aerosol properties suggested long-range transport (e.g., biomass burning and dust) has a strong influence on the variability of the aerosol at high altitude. The in-situ data are consistent with some recent remote sensing measurements such as CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) and some ground-based lidars. Systematic variability of aerosol properties with one another may be useful for identifying aerosol types at these sites. Milestone 2. Establish one new tall tower site in the NOAA/ESRL Carbon America tall tower network to help reduce the uncertainty of carbon uptake by the North American continent and to better characterize regional terrestrial carbon flux estimates. Milestone was completed and reported on in FY10 Annual Report. Milestone 3. Complete development of a field-operational temperature/humidity/GPS system to augment current trace gas vertical profile measurements in the NOAA/ESRL Carbon America aircraft network (a prototype system exists and is in use currently at five network sites; the system allows for automated measurements of the ambient temperature and humidity and the position and altitude associated with each sample in a vertical profile). Milestone was completed and reported on in FY10 Annual Report. MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF Figure 1: Comparison of average seasonal CALIPSO ambient extinction values at 3 km (purple) 532 nm with seasonal in-situ extinction (at 550 nm, low relative humidity and standard condition for temperature and pressure). The BEO (Basic Environmental Observatory) plot shows scattering. CALIPSO values come from Yu, et al. (2010). EUS is eastern United States profile; NAF is northern Africa profile; WEU is western Europe profile; WCN is western China profile; and ECN is eastern China profile. extinction (Mm -1) extinction (Mm -1) 150 100 50 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF CIRES Annual Report 2011 113
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COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH
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2 CIRES Annual Report 2011 From the
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Executive Summary and Research High
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which is a learning community and m
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and community preparedness and disa
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10 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Year in
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Council of Fellows n Waleed Abdalat
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Organization The Cooperative Instit
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CREATING A DYNAMIC RESEARCH ENVIRON
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DAVID OONK/CIRES CIRES Director Kon
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CIRES Communications It has long be
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22 CIRES Annual Report 2011 People&
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Richard Armstrong The Glaciers and
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Roger Bilham Block Bounding Bookshe
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John Cassano Polar Climate and Mete
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Xinzhao Chu LIDAR Research Campaign
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Joost de Gouw Sources and Chemistry
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Lang Farmer Development of a Microi
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Baylor Fox-Kemper Improving Subgrid
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Craig Jones Understanding the Origi
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Peter Molnar Tibet and the Asian Mo
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David Noone A Modern Approach to Pa
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Judith Perlwitz Exploring Mechanism
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Balaji Rajagopalan with graduate st
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Mark C. Serreze Rapid Arctic Change
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Robert Sievers Innovative Vaccine D
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Margaret Tolbert Laboratory Studies
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Greg Tucker Is Climate Change Etche
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Rainer Volkamer Simulation Chamber
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Carol Wessman with graduate student
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SCIENTIFIC CENTERS n Center for Lim
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Page 78 and 79: Faezeh Nick Sabbatical Ph.D., Insti
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Page 84 and 85: CSD-01 083 CSD-02 093 CSD-03 108 CS
Page 86 and 87: Figure 1: Simplified schematic show
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Page 90 and 91: NGDC-02MarineGeophysicsDataStewards
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Page 96 and 97: 1. The spatial Figure distribution
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Page 120 and 121: feedbacks, on the SSTs in the model
Page 122 and 123: Milestone 1. Add additional glacier
Page 124 and 125: Several climate-monitoring products
Page 126 and 127: atmospheric removal of methylglyoxa
Page 128 and 129: Figure 1: Global image of the Radia
Page 130 and 131: profiling radars with radio acousti
Page 132 and 133: RP-04 Intercontinental Transport an
Page 134 and 135: ates can be understood by productio
Page 136 and 137: Milestone 3. Maintain a constituent
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Page 140 and 141: Milestone 3. Explore the expanding
Page 142 and 143: 140 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Measur
Page 144 and 145: Refereed Publications, 2010 Abdalat
Page 146 and 147: Brunt, KM, HA Fricker, L Padman, TA
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Page 150 and 151: of Arapaho Glacier, Front Range, Co
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and DZ Friday (2010), Digital eleva
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Refereed Journals in which CIRES Sc
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Honors and Awards, 2010 Abdalati, W
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Conferences, Workshops, Events, Pre
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170 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Append
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Acronyms 20CR Twentieth Century Rea
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ESRL Earth System Research Laborato
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MERRA Modern Era Retrospective-Anal
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SXI Solar X-ray Imager TES Total Em
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