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We greatly expanded the holdings in our last-millennium temperature database (now called the last 2+ millennium paleoclimate network) through the inclusion of several gridded data products—including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCAP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) gridded temperature reanalysis data; selected variables from the 2010 millennium simulations of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Comprehensive COSMOS (Community Earth System Models) Earth System Model; and the Had- CRUT3v combined global land and ocean surface temperature data. This has expanded the spatial coverage of the existing 92-point reconstructions and 1,209 site proxy data already in the network. It also increased the temporal coverage of the network and allowed linkages to be made between the paleoclimatic records and modern instrumental observations. Researchers and others interested in later-Holocene climate can now find a complete set of data tools needed to calibrate and make temperature reconstructions, and can compare these with the accumulated high-resolution reconstructions in NOAA-Paleoclimatology’s archive. CSV-02 Mechanism and Forcings of Climate Variability n CSD-03 Chemistry, Radiative Forcing, and Climate n CSD-12 Emissions and Atmospheric Composition n CSD-13 Kinetics and Photochemical Studies n PSD-01 Modeling of Seasonal to Interannual Variability n PSD-02 Understanding and Predicting Subseasonal Variations and their Implications for Longer-Term Climate Variability n GMD-04 Climate Forcing CSD-03Chemistry,RadiativeForcing,andClimate FEDERAL LEADS: SUSAN SOLOMON, THOMAS B. RYERSON, KAREN ROSENLOF, STEVEN BROWN AND DAN MURPHY CIRES LEAD: CHRISTINE ENNIS NOAA Goal 2: Climate Project Goal: Observe and model the radiative forcing due to stratospheric ozone changes and tropospheric radiatively active gases. Carry out upper-troposphere airborne experiments and diagnostic analyses that characterize the dynamical and chemical processes influencing the radiative balance in the global atmosphere. Quantify the chemical and optical properties that determine the lifetimes, abundances and trends of greenhouse gases. Use passive cloud observations to develop techniques that can be used to estimate cloud properties. Milestone 1. Add ice habit information to cloud parcel modeling. Impact: Ice formation and growth is a critical and highly uncertain process for both precipitation and the radiative properties of clouds. A better description of ice habits will allow better calculations of both ice crystal growth and sedimentation. The fundamental physical processes that maintain su- 108 CIRES Annual Report 2011 percooled liquid in observed Arctic mixed-phase clouds are poorly constrained. To isolate the factors that control ice/liquid partitioning during the ascent of an air parcel, detailed model studies were performed with ice nucleation by deposition and immersion freezing and ice habit evolution. Effects on ice and liquid water evolution in an updraft were explored as a function of ice nucleus (IN) concentration and nucleation mode, updraft velocity, properties of cloud condensation nuclei and assumption about ice particle shape (habit). For most conditions, ice and liquid coexist and increase simultaneously, and only at high IN concentrations or low updraft velocities do ice particles grow at the expense of droplets. The impact of the ice nucleation mode on ice/liquid distribution depends on the temperature and supersaturation regime. The assumption of spherical ice particles instead of non-spherical habits leads to substantially smaller predicted ice masses. It is concluded that updraft velocity, IN concentrations and particle shape can impact ice/liquid distribution to similar extents. The work will be continued by exploring different hypotheses on freezing (stochastic versus singular) using literature data from laboratory studies within the same model framework. Product: Ervens, B, G Feingold, K Sulia, and JY Harrington, The impact of microphysical parameters, ice nucleation mode, and habit growth on the ice/liquid partitioning in mixed-phase Arctic clouds, submitted to J. Geophys. Res. Milestone 2. In the CalNex 2010 Field Campaign, survey a wide variety of different sources of directly emitted gas and aerosol species (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons and particle-phase soot) that affect atmospheric radiative forcing. Impact: The planned suite of measurements includes both short-lived and long-lived forcing agents, and will provide survey data for anthropogenic, agricultural, biogenic and geologic sources of these radiatively important trace species. These data will provide additional independent evaluation of newly developed greenhouse gas inventories in California and better define source sector emissions strengths for directly emitted greenhouse gases. During CalNex 2010, the research vessel Atlantis and the NOAA WP-3D research aircraft were deployed to characterize emissions of climate forcing agents and their precursors. Particular attention was paid to commercial marine vessels, which have been identified by the California Air Resources Board as significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) and important climate-forcing aerosol species (e.g., black carbon). In cooperation with the Maersk Shipping Line, an experiment was conducted that examined the effect on ship emissions of switching to low-sulfur marine fuels and slow-steaming (traveling at slower speeds) when a large containership was outside of and then within 24 miles of the California coast. Figure 1 (from Lack et al., submitted in 2011) shows that the two regulatory strategies are very effective at reducing stack emissions from these vessels. A separate experiment with a much smaller vessel showed similar results (Cappa et al., submitted in 2011). Research Vessel Atlantis was also deployed within California’s harbors of Los Angeles, Long Beach, San Francisco and Oakland to survey the levels of important climate-forcing agents in these industrial regions with the goal of verifying current emission inventories. Similarly, the WP-3D research aircraft was flown on flight tracks
Figure 1: Emissions reductions per nautical mile of travel from the Margrethe Maersk for all Species as a Result of the State of California fuel switch and vessel speed regulations. Contribution of the fuel switch regulation (vessel speed regulation) to emission reductions shown in dark grey (light grey). over urban, rural and agricultural regions throughout the South Coast Air Basin and extensively over the inland San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys. These flights were used to collect data that will be used in inverse modeling experiments to further improve emission inventories of climate-forcing agents such as CO2 and CH4. Product: Lack, DA, et al., Observed changes in climateand air quality–relevant shipping emissions due to vessel fuel quality and speed regulation, submitted to Environ. Sci. Technol. Cappa, CD, et al., The influence of operating speed on gas and particle-phase shipping emissions: Results from the R/V Miller Freeman, submitted to Environ. Sci. Technol. Milestone 3. Investigate the climate impact of changes in stratospheric ozone and water vapor concentrations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the slab ocean component (SOM), using time slice simulations and sensitivity studies and making use of new and improved ozone and water vapor data sets. Impact: The experiments aim to quantify the importance of these gases to both the modeled stratospheric and tropospheric climates. Also, the results will show the effect of using improved ozone data as a model boundary condition, which will be of great use and interest to the global modeling community. The final version of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) ozone data set was released in January 2011, and a manuscript describing the regression fit to the observational data is currently being prepared (Bodeker, et al.). Several long CAM integrations have been completed, with the goal to investigate the dependence of the modeled climate response to late-20thcentury ozone depletion to the ozone data set (comparing the NIWA data against the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports ‘standard’). Results are being prepared for submission (Young, et al.), and they suggest that many of the signals of Antarctic ozone depletion (e.g., temperature and southern annular mode changes) are significantly stronger when using the NIWA data set, which will be of particular interest to the modeling community. An ad hoc collaboration with Dr. Paul Kushner at the University of Toronto also has been initiated, using his expertise with analyzing dynamics in climate model output to investigate the model results in more depth. This extended analysis also will include an investigation of the possible role of the (slab) ocean in intensifying the ozone climate signal in the NCAR model. CAM simulations have been completed using imposed stratospheric water vapor (SWV) concentrations in the radiation code, investigating the potential role of the pre/ post-2000 change in SWV in decadal scale climate variability. Early indications suggest the change did not yield a significant impact on modeled temperatures. It is planned to revisit this topic with a revised method and/or repeating the study with a newer model. Products: Ozone dataset: “Combined vertical ozone profile database,”available from Bodeker Scientific (http:// www.bodekerscientific.com) Bodeker, GE, B Hassler, et al., A vertically resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining global climate model simulations, in prep. Young, PJ, S Solomon, et al., Modeling the impact of late 20th century stratospheric ozone changes: Sensitivity to different ozone forcing data sets, in prep. Figure 2: Latitude-time plots of column (250-5 hPa) anomalies for the (a) Randel and Wu (2007), (b) SPARC (Cionni et al., 2011) and (c) BDBP-based (Hassler et al., 2009) climate model ozone data sets, in Dobson Units (DU). Anomalies are computed relative to the 1979-2005 climatology for each data set. Note the deeper blue colors at high latitudes in (c) indicating more ozone depletion in that data. CIRES Annual Report 2011 109
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COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH
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2 CIRES Annual Report 2011 From the
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Executive Summary and Research High
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which is a learning community and m
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and community preparedness and disa
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10 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Year in
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Council of Fellows n Waleed Abdalat
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Organization The Cooperative Instit
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CREATING A DYNAMIC RESEARCH ENVIRON
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DAVID OONK/CIRES CIRES Director Kon
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CIRES Communications It has long be
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22 CIRES Annual Report 2011 People&
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Richard Armstrong The Glaciers and
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Roger Bilham Block Bounding Bookshe
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John Cassano Polar Climate and Mete
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Xinzhao Chu LIDAR Research Campaign
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Joost de Gouw Sources and Chemistry
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Lang Farmer Development of a Microi
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Baylor Fox-Kemper Improving Subgrid
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Craig Jones Understanding the Origi
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Peter Molnar Tibet and the Asian Mo
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David Noone A Modern Approach to Pa
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Judith Perlwitz Exploring Mechanism
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Balaji Rajagopalan with graduate st
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Mark C. Serreze Rapid Arctic Change
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Robert Sievers Innovative Vaccine D
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Margaret Tolbert Laboratory Studies
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Greg Tucker Is Climate Change Etche
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Rainer Volkamer Simulation Chamber
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Page 122 and 123: Milestone 1. Add additional glacier
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G Keppel-Aleks, EA Kort, R Macatang
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Non-Refereed Publications, 2010 Ale
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and DZ Friday (2010), Digital eleva
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Refereed Journals in which CIRES Sc
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Honors and Awards, 2010 Abdalati, W
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Conferences, Workshops, Events, Pre
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170 CIRES Annual Report 2011 Append
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Acronyms 20CR Twentieth Century Rea
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ESRL Earth System Research Laborato
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MERRA Modern Era Retrospective-Anal
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SXI Solar X-ray Imager TES Total Em
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