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436 Biotechnological Approaches for Pest Management and Ecological Sustainability<br />

Probability of Horizontal and Vertical Gene Flow<br />

Long-term ecological risk can be determined from the probability that an initially rare<br />

transgene might spread into the ecosystem, resulting in vertical gene transfer as a result<br />

of gene introgression into feral populations, invasion of new territories as a result of introduction<br />

of an exotic species, and horizontal gene transfer mediated by microbial agents,<br />

or a combination of these. The relative importance of each factor depends on the species,<br />

transgene, and the method used to insert the transgene. Vertical gene transfer depends<br />

on the species modifi ed. If feral populations are locally available, then adaptation is not a<br />

major barrier to gene spread, as the introgression of the transgene may take place into<br />

highly adapted native populations. Although feral populations do not exist locally for<br />

every domesticated species, if the transgenic plant has an economic advantage, we must<br />

assume that human intervention will transport such organisms to area(s) of the world<br />

where native populations exist. Another mechanism is the spread of the transgene into<br />

new territories, depending on the functionality of the transgene. The anthropogenic<br />

introduction of any exotic organisms into natural communities is a serious ecological<br />

concern because exotics may adversely affect the local communities, including eliminating<br />

populations of other species. Transgenic individuals retain most of the characteristics<br />

of their wild-type counterparts, but also possess some novel advantages. A transgene for<br />

enhanced environmental adaptation, such as heat tolerance, would allow the species to<br />

invade cool and warm environments, while maintaining populations in current habitats<br />

(Tzotzos, 1995). They may reproduce at a faster rate and their populations may increase<br />

unchecked and thus adversely affect the other species. As a consequence, transgenic<br />

organisms might threaten the survival of wild-type conspecifi cs as well as other species<br />

in the community. The third mechanism of spread involves horizontal gene transfer, which<br />

occurs through viruses and transposons (Tefper, 2002). However, horizontal gene transfer<br />

may occur at such low rates that it would not normally be an additional concern. If a<br />

virus or transposon is used to insert the transgene, then even if the virus is disabled, it<br />

may be possible for the transposon element to recombine with other naturally occurring<br />

viruses and spread into new hosts.<br />

Regardless of the mechanism of gene spread, the ultimate fate of a transgene will be<br />

determined by the same forces that direct evolution, that is, natural selection acting on fi tness.<br />

Thus, risk assessment can be accomplished by determining the outcome of natural<br />

selection for increased fi tness. This conclusion assumes that the natural populations are<br />

large enough to recover from such introductions, that is, natural selection will have time<br />

to readjust the population to its previous state. Fitness is not simply survival, but all aspects<br />

of the organism that result in spread of the transgene.<br />

Risk Management<br />

A comprehensive strategy for risk management is necessary once a plant has to be released<br />

for small-scale experiments and commercial production (NAS, 1989; CEC, 1990a, 1990b;<br />

UNIDO, 1991; OECD, 1992, 1993a, 1993b; Sharma et al., 2002b). The scientists concerned, the<br />

biosafety committee, and national and international regulatory authorities should determine<br />

whether it is acceptable to release the specifi c transgenic plants and, if needed, restrictions<br />

to be imposed. Field containment should be in place to limit the possible environmental

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