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____ IIINDUSi1RY REP,ORT _
Study Predicts M!ode'st IGrolwth
in IGe,ar Manufacturiing
Gears. a new 1.92-page tudy frcm The Freedonia Group
(Cleveland, OH), project u.s. demand for gears to increa e
4.3 percent annuaHy through 2002, when hipments are predicted
to reach $25.7 billion.
The automotive industry will continue to be the large t
source of gear demand. comprising about rwo-thirds of total
sales. However, growth in the sales of automotive gears will
be the lowest among major industry sectors. the study says.
The reasons for the expected lowdown include a satura-
tion of key gear-poweredacce ories uch as power windows.
tile ongoiQg d velopmem of belt-driven and other eontinuoasly
variable tran mi sions and the slowdown of the overall
economy.
Demand fer gear, in quipment and machinery is also
likely to slow down because of the overall economy. while
marineapp1ications hould exhibit the best growth prospects
becau e of a projected continued demand for recreatienal
boats. the srndy says.
Individual gears accounted for about 60 percent of total
shipment value in 1997. However.grawth in gear assembly
hipments i expected to rise fa ter than that of individual
gear through 2002. Most of this is expected because of
growth ill the gearmotor market.
Gear Demand By IMa~ket'& Orig:in
tmilm,on dollarst
Il1em1.1 1992 1991 2D02 2007
Ilurable Goods Shipments 12.29 1456 20501 2582 3241
S !lears I 000 $ durable 101.4 10.4 10.4 10.2 10.2
'goods
,Gear Dlmand 12170 15U5, 21.a5 2631111 iB165,
BV Market
Motor Vehicles 8120 \0010 "'1100 11&20 120\0
Machinery & Equipment 2800 3355, 4005 61'20 7845,
Other l2!iO 1700' 1800 24401 33101
Bv Origin:
OEM 11425 13495 19225, :23660 29735
Captive, 81'2fI 9435 1'3035. 1'65101 20535
Merchant 3305 4060' 5500 70001 92001
Merma rket 1345 1630 2180 2720 34&),
Gears is available for $3.300 from The Freedonia Group.
Inc.• 767 Beta Drive. Cleveland, OH 44[43~2326.
TenUs WUt You TIII_ •••
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Vl.11 u. ,.1 Boolh .11115
, OOober 2+-27, 11199
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